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271. Foreign Participation in Local-Currency Bond Markets

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and John D. Burger
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze the development of, and foreign participation in, 49 local bond markets. Countries with stable inflation rates and strong creditor rights have more developed local bond markets and rely less on foreign-currency-denominated bonds. Less developed bond markets have returns characterized by high variance and negative skewness, factors eschewed by U.S. investors. Results based on a three-moment CAPM indicate, however, that it is diversifiable idiosyncratic risk that U.S. investors appear to shun. Taken as a whole our results hint at a virtuous cycle of bond market development: Creditor friendly policies and laws can spark local bond market development that enables the development of derivatives markets and, in turn, attracts foreign participation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

272. The Putin Restoration

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The Revolution had, indeed, two distinct phases: one in which the sole aim of the French nation seemed to be to make a clean sweep of the past; and a second, in which attempts were made to salvage fragments from the wreckage of the old order. For many of the laws and administrative methods which were suppressed in 1789 reappeared a few years later, much as some rivers after going underground re-emerge at another point, in new surroundings.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and France

273. The Duma Election

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The December 7, 2003, election to the Russian parliament, the State Duma, has been portrayed in the U.S. media as mostly a product of the Kremlin's machinations. Its "administrative resources"--most importantly, its control of national television channels--are said to be almost entirely responsible for the winning performance of the "party of power," United Russia, which garnered 37 percent of the party-list vote among twenty-three parties and blocs on the ballot.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

274. The Black Media Entrepreneur and Economic Implications for the 21st Century

Author:
Emmanuel K. Ngwainmbi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
This paper appraises communications as business and examines the impact of new information technology on the productivity of the black entrepreneur (African American (AAs) and African (ABs) mid-scale businesspersons) and provides insights into market conditions in both communities to the mindset of the African entrepreneur and implications for partnership management. Further, it describes the black entrepreneur's access to business information, implications for partnership and a background for strategic planning. Research shows there are potential mutual benefits for African and African American media entrepreneurs, with proper strategic planning and information sharing.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

275. Transforming Competitiveness in European Transition Economies: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Jasminka Sohinger
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become one of the main drivers of globalization and integration of the European transition economies into the world economy, especially the European Union. Its growth enhancing capacity has played a significant role in transforming their competitiveness, both locally and on international markets, and its propensity to stimulate institution buliding is changing both economic and political landscapes in the region. The economic conditionality of FDI and the EU access-driven reforms are working hand in hand in helping the goals of transition and the convergence process. The achievement of both goals is seen as the best guarantor of peace and security in the region.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

276. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

277. Preempting Protectionism in Services: The GATS and Outsourcing

Author:
Aaditya Mattoo and Sacha Wunsch
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Cross-border trade in services is growing rapidly, with both developed and developing countries among the most dynamic exporters. Despite the substantial global benefits from such trade, the adjustment pressures created in importing countries could provoke a protectionist backlash - some signs of which are already visible in procurement and regulatory restrictions. The current negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda offer an opportunity to lock in current openness and preempt protectionism. This note describes how a bold initiative under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) can help secure openness.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

278. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

279. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

280. China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–90, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–96 and the post-1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China