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151. Status, Identity, and Rising Powers

Author:
Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the current era, the most striking development is the appearance of rising powers. These include Brazil, Russia, India, and China but also South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea. No longer can a small group of advanced states, the Group of Seven (G-7), manage the world economy. The G-7 has for all practical purposes been replaced by the G-20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. The emerging powers in Asia account for a growing share of the world's global domestic product. These powers are spending more on their military—India already has an aircraft carrier and plans to procure two more. China's growing navy is a major concern to the United States military.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

152. Are Private Equity Firms in Emerging Markets Entrepreneurial? A Case Study of Egypt

Author:
Ayman Ismail
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Over the five year period from 2003 to 2008, private equity and venture capital investments have grown exponentially, both globally and in emerging markets, making private equity firms and funds increasingly important actors in emerging markets. In this paper, we examine the hypothesis that private equity firms in emerging markets are entrepreneurial-i.e., are more focused on creating new firms or growing and globalizing existing ones, based on a case study of Egypt.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

153. Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons

Author:
Michael Auslin
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Ensuring security in the Indo-Pacific region will be the primary foreign policy challenge for the United States and liberal nations over the next generation. Doing so successfully will provide the greatest economic and political opportunities for the next quarter century. Conversely, a failure to maintain stability, support liberal regimes, create cooperative regional relations, and uphold norms and standards of international behavior will lead to a region, and world, of greater uncertainty, insecurity, and instability. Due to its economic strength, military power, and political dynamism, the Indo-Pacific will be the world's most important region in coming decades, and its significance will be felt throughout the globe. Since the end of World War II, it has transformed itself into the world's economic powerhouse, yet has also witnessed a struggle between tides of liberalism, authoritarianism, and even totalitarianism. It remains riven by distrust, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and painful historical memories. The Indo-Pacific's unique geography makes the balance of regional security most vulnerable in its "commons": the open seas, air lanes, and cyber networks that link the region together and to the world.
Topic:
Security, Development, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, and Australia/Pacific

154. Deter and Assure: Charting a Course for America's Asian Alliances in a New Nuclear Age

Author:
Tim Sullivan
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As home to a number of the world's most dynamic economies, two rising powers, and six nuclear states, Asia is a region of enormous strategic importance to the United States. For over six decades, America has functioned as the preeminent power in Asia, playing a vital role in providing security and ensuring a stable balance of power that has allowed the region's states to flourish politically and economically. The U.S. security framework in the region has rested historically upon a series of bilateral alliances and strategic partnerships. The arrangement has impressively stood the test of time despite concerns that the lack of an overarching, multilateral security architecture would lead to inefficiencies in the United States' pursuit of regional stability.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

155. Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. With low interest rates in the United States, Japan, the UK and much of the rest of Europe expected to persist for some time, these flows seem likely to become larger in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Particularly for the emerging countries with shallow financial markets, interest-sensitive inflows have the potential to be disruptive. Exchange rates will tend to be overvalued for sustained periods, punctuated by sharp depreciations. These distorted and varying price signals will be unhelpful for good policy-making and steady economic growth.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and Europe

156. Developing Countries – even China – Cannot Rescue the World Economy

Author:
Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Many analysts believe that developed countries will recover very slowly from the global economic crisis. Consequently, they have looked to the emerging economies of the developing world to help stabilize the world economy and generate a stronger recovery. Indeed, when the financial crisis first engulfed the rich countries in 2008 and early 2009, growth in developing economies was not affected as their banks and financial systems faced neither credit problems nor a more serious meltdown. It is true that some foreign investors, particularly institutional investors, withdrew their money from developing countries with large stock exchanges, setting off stock price declines and some currency devaluations. But this did not affect the “real” economy of production and employment. There was a wide belief that many developing economies were “decoupled” from the rich economies and could continue to grow and this growth would buoy the world economy. Even when output declined dramatically in the developed economies, reducing the demand for developing countries' exports, it was expected that growth in the larger emerging economies would not be significantly affected. This has been borne out by subsequent events. Growth in China has been 8-9 percent and in India about 6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China and India

157. Climate-Resilient Industrial Development Paths: Design Principles and Alternative Models

Author:
Lyuba Zarsky
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Global climate change is here. According to recent scientific reports, the earth has warmed by nearly half a degree centigrade over the last twenty five years. Even with robust mitigation efforts, the global climate could warm by up to 4 degrees centigrade due to past emissions. Under a business-as -usual, high consumption fossil fuel-based development path, it could warm even more, resulting in catastrophic and life-threatening destruction of earth's eco-systems.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy

158. Does Fairness Matter?

Author:
Hakan Altinay
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Worldwide, there has been a recent increase in expressions of cynicism. We are reminded that all power is hard power, and that being loved or respected is no substitute for being feared. The great power game of nations always continues, we are forewarned, even when a higher goal or rhetoric is evoked. Superpowers are selfish, arbitrary, and dangerous nations, and they should not be embarrassed to be so and not feel constrained by international legitimacy and laws. We are cautioned against assuming that the rise of the world's emerging powers is doing anything to the status of United States as the sole superpower. Naturally, it would be a folly to think that global public opinion is in effect a “second superpower,” or even a crucial factor. Such concerns are the Lilliputians binding an unsuspecting Gulliver. Anyone harboring naïve views needs to be told that good intentions are at best a distraction and a nuisance, and at worst a recipe for disaster, given their imprudence. Cynics prefer to be unconcerned about the achievements of transnational normative action, such as abolishing the slave trade or establishing the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

159. A New Strategy to Leverage Business for International Development

Author:
Robert Mosbacher, Jr.
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
To tackle global poverty, it is essential to craft a new and dynamic approach to economic development that refl ects the realities of a 21st century global economy and incorporates the participation of a wide variety of new players, particularly from the private sector. While investment, trade and innovation all represent basic components of building healthy economies, this paper focuses primarily on strategies to increase both in-country and international private capital investment in order to create jobs. To that end, it concentrates on two areas: strengthening and reforming the existing structures, coordinating mechanisms and policies that support U. S. economic development efforts; and improving public-private partnership models to promote broader fi nancing to local businesses, greater human capital support and technical assistance and improved physical and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

160. Millennium Challenge Corporation: Can the Experiment Survive?

Author:
John Hewko
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) was established in 2004 to provide grants to a select group of developing countries that demonstrate a commitment to good governance by investing in the health and education of their people and adopting sound economic policies. The MCC has performed admirably in the face of a number of challenges and unrealistic expectations, but its future success depends on its ability to address important philosophical and operational issues, and on Congress reforming the mechanisms by which it funds and judges foreign aid programs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States