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202. Safeguarding Sudan’s Revolution
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan’s post-Bashir transition holds the promise of civilian rule but also perils, among them renewed insurgency, economic stagnation and backsliding into autocracy. Outside powers should press the military to adhere to its power-sharing pact with the opposition. Authorities in Khartoum should pursue peace with rebels. What’s new? Since Omar al-Bashir’s 11 April ouster, Sudan’s military leadership and opposition alliance have appointed a new prime minister, formed a cabinet and assembled a supervisory council to oversee a power-sharing deal concluded on 17 August. If honoured, the deal could pave the way for elections and civilian rule. Why does it matter? Sudan faces a crushing economic crisis, insurgencies and political polarisation, with a security establishment bent on keeping power and an opposition movement determined to instal a fully civilian administration. The 17 August agreement represents the best pathway both to achieving reform and to averting spiralling violence. What should be done? The AU, U.S. and EU, together with Gulf states, should push the generals to respect the power-sharing deal. They should encourage Khartoum to make peace with insurgents in peripheral areas. The U.S. should rescind Sudan’s state sponsor of terrorism designation while maintaining pressure on the military in other ways.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economy, Negotiation, Revolution, Transition, and Omar al-Bashir
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
203. Analysis of the Socio-Economic Situation of the Mountainous Region of the Guria and Khulo Municipalities
- Author:
- Zurab Batiashvili and Alexander Kvakhadze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the present study is to analyze the social and economic problems in the Khulo municipality and the mountainous region of Guria and identify ways to solve them. It is noteworthy that both the internal socioeconomic challenges and the current geopolitical reality are greatly influencing the region. The paper examines the challenges facing the region in the fields of religion, political engagement, education and socio-economic development. The combination of these problems to some extent impedes the region’s progress and its full integration into Georgia’s social and political space. The work has been produced under the auspices of the United Kingdom Good Governance Fund and the British Good Governance Fund in the framework of the Rondeli Foundation’s project entitled Promoting Participation and Engagement in Local Governance in the Mountainous region of Guria and Adjara.
- Topic:
- Development, Geopolitics, Economy, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia
204. Mapping economic diversification across the Gulf Cooperation Council
- Author:
- Karen E. Young
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain heavily reliant on natural resource revenue as a source of government spending and a driver of growth. Diversification efforts now often include new ways to generate revenue through state investments in energy projects abroad (including refining and petrochemical production) and national oil companies. Since 2015, the GCC countries have become more competitive with each other in altering their policy landscapes to streamline fiscal expenditure and attract foreign investment and resident investors. There is significant variation in policy approaches to foreign labor and tax. Each of these governments faces enormous strains on public finances and challenging economic outlooks, due to depressed oil prices, demographic pressures, high unemployment rates, and a lack of economic diversification. Debt has become a tool of choice, but the capacity to repay and the capacity to grow are both beginning to differentiate the GCC states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations
205. The US-China economic relationship: A comprehensive approach
- Author:
- Neena Shenai and Joshua Meltzer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The US–China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the past year, the US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports and China has retaliated, raising tariffs on a similar amount of US exports. At the G-20 leaders’ summit in November 2018, Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to resolve the trade dispute within 90 days—by March 1, 2019, though this deadline has been recently extended. The US concerns that underpin these bilateral trade tensions stem from specific practices endemic to China’s economic model that systematically tilt the playing field in favor of Chinese companies domestically and globally. Progress on specific trade issues will require China to comply with its World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments and to make certain reforms that will likely touch on areas of state control over the economy. In addition, new trade rules are needed to address China’s economic practices not covered by its WTO commitments, including in areas such as state-owned enterprises (SOEs), certain subsidies, and digital trade. These issues also come at a time of increasing US concern over the national security risks China presents, particularly with respect to technology access. All of these matters underscore the complexity of US-China bilateral negotiations as well as the stakes at play. Resolving US-China differences in a meaningful way will take time. This policy brief assesses the state of the US-China trade relationship by first looking at the economic impact on the US The policy brief then looks at why the Chinese economic model is so concerning. Despite the challenges the US has had at the WTO, the policy brief argues that the WTO should be central to resolving US-China trade tensions. We outline a multi-prong strategy, including bilateral, multilateral, and unilateral actions as well as working with allies that together would constitute positive next steps for this critical economic relationship. In taking this multifaceted approach, the US needs to stay true to its values and not accept short-term gains or “fig leaf” deals. In particular, creating a managed trade relationship with China would not be a constructive outcome. Instead, the US should work with China to agree on long term solutions. The resulting deal should address the real issues at hand in a free market manner and strengthen the multilateral global trading system and rule of law that the US has championed in the post-World War II era.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
206. China’s global business footprint shrinks
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- China’s investment and construction around the world plunged in the first half of 2019 and is unlikely to return to 2016–17 levels in the foreseeable future. The principal cause is fewer large transactions by state-owned enterprises. These firms rely on foreign currency provided by Beijing for global activities, and hard currency may be rationed indefinitely. There are brighter spots. The raw number of investments held up better than transaction size. The private share of China’s global investment climbed, and the greenfield share rose sharply. Investment in the Belt and Road Initiative outperformed that in traditionally favored rich economies such as Australia. Chinese investment in the US has been minor in size for two years. Policymakers should shift focus from screening to unwanted activity by Chinese firms, including intellectual property theft and other criminal acts. Enforcement targeting specific firms is superior to tariffs but should go beyond largely empty steps taken to date.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Business, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
207. How to evaluate China’s economy
- Author:
- Derek Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Official Chinese economic data are often the only game in town, but they are untrustworthy. Sometimes they prove inaccurate; during downturns they are falsified outright. Finding inconsistency in official statistics demonstrates the problem but offers no solution, since it is rarely clear which series is better. Examining 15 major indicators for importance and reliability shows that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita should be deemphasized. To illustrate, China’s GDP per capita is twice as high as official per capita disposable income. The latter can be spent; the former is an accounting result. Another conclusion: Arguably the most valuable indicators are the worst measured. Debt is reasonably estimated at present, but factor productivity and human capital are vital to medium-term performance and receive far too little attention.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Monetary Policy, GDP, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Beijing
208. Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia
- Author:
- Mahathir Mohammad
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program features an address with a focus on the rule of law and multilateralism by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Prime Minister of Malaysia followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Law, Economy, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- New York, Malaysia, and Asia
209. INSTC vs. BRI: The India-China Competition Over the Port of Chabahar and Infrastructure in Asia
- Author:
- Syed Fazl-e Haider
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the central component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, has been a source of significant attention and controversy (China Brief, January 12, 2018; China Brief, February 15). Parts of South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe, however, are also host to another ambitious infrastructure program: the “International North-South Transport Corridor” (INSTC), a transportation development plan first established in 2000 by Iran, Russia and India. The INSTC envisions a network to connect Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf ports and rail centers to the Caspian Sea, and then onwards through the Russian Federation to St. Petersburg and northern Europe.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia
210. Italy Joins the Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Interests, and Drivers
- Author:
- Dario Cristiani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In March 2019, Italy and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) signed a broad and comprehensive, albeit not legally binding, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for Italy to join the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This has triggered a significant debate—in Brussels as well as in Washington—about whether this decision signalled an Italian shift away from its historical pro-European and pro-Atlantic position, to a more nuanced position open to deepening strategic ties with China. The MoU is not definite proof of such a shift, and the Italian government has denied any strategic change. However, Italy is the first major European country, and the first Group of Seven (G7) member, to formalize its participation with the BRI project. As such, this development is particularly remarkable.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Italy