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31. Russia’s War on Ukraine: Iran’s Growing Role and the Nuclear Threat

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Philip Breedlove, and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In today's episode, Alistair Taylor sits down with experts from MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative to assess the trajectory of Russia's war on Ukraine. They discuss Russia’s growing attacks on critical infrastructure, its recent deployment of Iranian drones and their impact on the battlefield, the potential nuclear threat, and where things might be headed from here. Today's guests are General Philip Breedlove and Iulia-Sabina Joja. General Breedlove is a retired United States Air Force General who served as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Commander of U.S. European Command. He’s the Distinguished Chair of MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative and a Distinguished Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. Iulia is a Senior Fellow and Director of MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative and Director of its "Afghanistan Watch" project. She teaches courses on European security at Georgetown and George Washington universities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

32. The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On today’s episode, host Alistair Taylor explores the ramifications of the CIA drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31. Joining the program are three MEI experts - Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London - who bring with them a variety of perspectives, from intelligence to diplomacy.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Drones, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

33. Proposed method for building an anti-drone system for the protection of facilities important for state security

Author:
Jędrzej Łukasiewicz
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) pose a threat to buildings and facilities important to the security of the state. As they are able to operate like individual aircraft, the number of ways they can be used for terrorist activity is practically unlimited. Anyone in charge of a facility that is crucial for the reliable functioning of a state is obliged to ensure an acceptable level of security. Since drones can be used to attack protected structures, they need to be protected by an anti-drone system. The paper proposes a method for assessing the effectiveness of systems for detecting and neutralising unmanned aerial vehicles. In order to suggest a new method for assessing the effectiveness of anti-drone systems, an analysis of the scientific literature and other documents describing existing anti-drone systems has been carried out. Attacks involving the use of drones, both in wartime and in incidents of terrorism, are also analysed and existing anti-drone solutions assessed. Because there are a variety of technical solutions for the detection and neutralisation of drones, and different location and weather conditions, a universal method is proposed based on probability calculations and neutralisation of drones, using mathematical formulas. This method allows for the effectiveness of the entire anti-drone system to be assessed on the basis of measuring the probability of detection and neutralisation of drones in real conditions. The proposed method allows the effectiveness of the currently existing anti-drone systems to be evaluated and for new methods for detecting and neutralising drones to be proposed. This method, based on mathematical calculations, enables software to be written for simulating anti-drone systems on computers and for the effectiveness of these systems to be confirmed before their construction in a protected facility.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. To What Extent is Israel Prepared for the Growing Threat of UAVs?

Author:
Eden Kaduri, Liran Antebi, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking about the ways of dealing with the threat in the spheres of doctrine, development, and operations is needed. Technological and operational solutions for both the more conventional threat and a scenario of massive UAV attacks in combination with high-trajectory barrages are required. Inter alia, there should be greater reliance on lasers as a cheap solution with much higher output than the current solutions. In addition, preparations should be made for handling extreme scenarios, however unlikely.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

35. Houthis Target Southern Ports – The Yemen Review, October 2022

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The UN-backed truce between the Houthi movement and the internationally recognized government was allowed to expire on October 2. Efforts to secure its further extension failed following a last-minute demand by Houthi negotiators to add military and security personnel to a payroll of public sector employees. The breakdown of the talks was followed by mutual recriminations, even as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged delegations on October 14, ostensibly to visit prisoners of war and discuss an exchange. Later in the month, the Houthis targeted two oil ports on Yemen’s southern coast with drones, striking the port of Nushayma in Shabwa on October 18-19 and the port of Al-Dabba in Hadramawt on October 21. The drone attacks followed warnings by senior Houthi official Mahdi al-Mashat that foreign energy companies were “looting Yemen’s sovereign wealth” and should cease operations. Though the facilities were undamaged, the attacks have disrupted exports as foreign ships stay away from Yemen’s coast. On October 31, Canadian oil producer Calvalley Petroleum Ltd. announced a suspension of oil production at Block 9 in Hadramawt due to the “current extremely challenging situation” and a lack of oil storage capacity. In response to the Houthi drone attacks, the government’s National Defense Council officially designated the Houthi movement a terrorist organization on October 23. It is unclear what ramifications the designation will have, as the government currently lacks a mechanism with which to enforce compliance. Saudi Arabia has privately urged caution to prevent derailing ongoing peace talks.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Drones, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Port
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

36. Drone warfare: an evolution in military affairs

Author:
Andrea Gilli
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) – also known as drones – have acquired increasing importance in modern warfare. Originally designed to perform surveillance missions during the Cold War, drones gained prominence during the post-Cold War era through their ability to gather real-time intelligence over conflict-prone areas, particularly in support of humanitarian interventions. Following the onset of the global war on terror, drones acquired a further, arguably more significant function: armed with precision-guided munitions, they enabled Western armed forces to identify, track, and accurately strike targets from afar, reducing the need for troops on the ground.1 Simultaneously, drones’ allegedly low costs, limited technological sophistication, and ease of employment also enabled their rapid proliferation to dozens of countries around the world.2 According to some, the major implications are yet to come: drones’ unique capabilities promise in fact to revolutionize warfare. Consequently, militaries could eschew complex and expensive force structures to wage war: they would just need drones. As countries face stronger incentives and fewer constraints for using force, the growing availability of drones coupled with their capabilities deserve attention because this trend risks ushering in a new era of global instability and conflict.3
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Turkey Enters Tunisia’s Weapons Market With Combat-Proven Arms: A Technical and Strategic Assessment

Author:
Can Kasapoglu
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In late 2020, Turkey finally secured a lucrative arms sale package to Tunisia after a long period of negotiations. The $150 million portfolio, which attracted key players of the Turkish defense technological and industrial base, such as Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) and British Motor Corporation (BMC), will mean more than only defense revenues for Turkey (TRT Haber, December 24, 2020). It will additionally mark Turkish weaponry’s entrance into the Tunisian market against the backdrop of Ankara’s geopolitical quests in North Africa, which has become a geopolitical flashpoint encompassing various forms of militancy, transnational terrorism, and proxy warfare.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, Arms Trade, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Turkey, North Africa, Tunisia, and Mediterranean

38. Turkish drones, Greek challenges

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

39. Deals, Drones, and National Will: The New Era in Turkish Power Projection

Author:
Rich Outzen
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector. In 2020, military observers took note when the Turkish Armed Forces employed drones to devastating effect in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. But this technological achievement must be regarded as just one part of a revamped Turkish approach to regional power projection—a change with economic, diplomatic, strategic, reputational, and battlefield implications. In the past five years, Turkey has notched many associated successes, such as pushing the PKK fight off its own turf and blunting challenges to its interests in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf. Ankara has also secured significant leverage in other disputes from the Horn of Africa to the Balkans, while strengthening its defense export sector. As military expert Col. Rich Outzen, U.S. Army (Ret.), makes clear in this tightly argued Policy Note, Turkey’s power projection does not always align with U.S. interests, a reality exemplified by anti-SDF military operations and defense industry cooperation with Russia. But ending the U.S.-Turkey military alliance over such differences is neither productive nor tenable. Instead, America can seek to work with an emergent Turkey in the many cases, from Qatar to Afghanistan, where such collaboration advances U.S. strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Weapons, Drones, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

40. High power microwave for knocking out programmable suicide drones

Author:
Mohamed Zied Chaari
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The primary research objective is to reduce the dangers of rogue drones in our lives and the consequences of extremist groups, drug dealers, and organised criminals using them. The growing number of incidents involving modified drones proves the weakness of existing technology in stopping and neutralising errant drones such as the hand-held gun jammer, trained eagle, R.F. jammer, and others. This technology is not very likely to able to knock out a rogue drone and is incapable of stopping programmable drones. This article aims to examine the directed energy of HPM (high power microwaves) in using the electromagnetic field strength energy to damage the drone’s structure or burn its PCB board electronics. It goes on to analyse electronic attack using microwave power with high frequency to immediately switch off drones. The effectiveness of high microwave power for disrupting drones at different distances and in different weather conditions is evaluated. A study of the conical horn antenna of the magnetron coupling system, which has an operating frequency of 2.45 GHz, is also included.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus