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22. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective
- Author:
- Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
23. Trump’s Presidency: Nuances of Leadership versus Management of Crises
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The current riots across America represent a moment of rebuttal at the conjuncture between an exit from the Coronavirus dilemma and Trump’s pursuit of a second term a few weeks before the National Conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Crisis Management, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
24. The Hard Chess Puzzle: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ versus Iran’s ‘Maximum Resistance’
- Author:
- Kayhan Barzegar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the dice of the “maximum pressure” and “maximum resistance” policies are rotating between Iran and the United States, a new synthesis, seemingly satisfactory for both parties, emerges and that is appealing to a “minimum containment” policy and avoiding an unwanted war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
25. “Gulf citizens against normalization”: Reactions to Israel’s normalization agreements with the UAE and Bahrain
- Author:
- Adam Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In September issue of Beehive, Adam Hoffman examines the discourse in the social networks of several Gulf States regarding Israel's normalization agreements with the UAE and Bahrain.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Donald Trump, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Bahrain, Gulf Nations, and UAE
26. With Tensions Receding, Americans Lose Fear of North Korea
- Author:
- Karl Friedhoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- North Korea’s promise to deliver an end-of-year “Christmas gift” went unfulfilled amid signs that the United States wanted to continue diplomacy with the Kim regime. This has led to a continued lull in tensions between the two countries, although actual progress in negotiations remains elusive. With that lack of progress, President Donald Trump has reportedly told his advisers that he does not want another summit with Kim Jong Un before the US presidential election in November. In a survey conducted from January 10–12, 2020, the American public is now less concerned about the threat posed by North Korea, but little else has changed in terms of Americans’ policy preferences to deal with North Korea’s nuclear program. Majorities still oppose airstrikes against North Korea and support long-term military bases in South Korea.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
27. Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
- Author:
- Ellie Geranmayeh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the ‘modernisers’, who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and IRGC-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational ‘maximum resistance’ response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
28. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario
- Author:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
- Topic:
- Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
29. Through the Looking Glass: The Nordic-Baltic Region and the Changing Role of the United States
- Author:
- Piret Kuusik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Strengths and power come from within. While the US still dominates in terms of power of attraction, its fraught domestic situation undermines its global standing. This analysis focuses on the countries in the Nordic-Baltic region – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden – and assesses how they are adapting to President Donald Trump administration’s foreign policy and the changing role of the US in the world. President Trump has stirred the current world order and the US foreign policy. Previous long-term and broad US foreign policy has become narrow and shallow. Immediate gain has become the new measure of success in US external relations; setting the direction and interests of US foreign policy. To the region and Europe at large, this has been a shake-up which consequences have not been thoroughly analysed and debated in the public space. The analysis hopes to serve as an opener to a broader debate in Estonia and in the Nordic-Baltic region about the US’s changing role and the following consequences. The analysis desires to advance regional cooperation and shared thinking; helping policy-makers, journalists, researchers and politicians to contribute to the future discussions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, United States of America, and Baltic States
30. US-Turkey Relations Hanging by a Thread: Trump’s Re-Election
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- As the American elections are about to take place, many in Turkey brace for the outcome. After countless disputes between the United States and Turkey during the 2010’s, coupled with growing divergence of Turkish foreign policy, two allies’ relationship has been deceptively good for the last two years. This was not due to a meaningful rapprochement, but to Erdogan’s well-executed personal diplomacy with Trump which has proved beneficial for Turkey in many cases. Yet, this superficial rapprochement is challenged by the prospects of a Biden presidency. Biden, whose remarks are far from affable towards Erdogan and who has even pledged to support Turkish opposition, is very likely to demand Turkey to recommit to its alliance with the West. Hence, we may soon see a Turkey at a serious crossroads: either Turkey will turn its face to West once again, or it will further alienate from the West.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean