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81. Measuring the effectiveness of Norwegian peace facilitation

Author:
Javier Fabra-Mata
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Over the past twenty years Norway has established an international reputation as a peace facilitator. The Oslo Accords and Norway’s active involvement in other peace processes in the 1990s provided the basis for constructing a peace narrative around the supposed disinterestedness and uniqueness of the Norwegian approach, which has evolved over the years, with a major move towards the professionalisation of the country’s peace efforts. Critics have questioned the results and effectiveness of Norwegian peace engagement. While they point to the collapse of peace processes and conflict recurrence, Norwegians engaged in these processes take a more positive view, avoiding absolutes and underscoring instead less spectacular, but nonetheless important achievements. Over and above peace agreements, peace processes can generate a series of tangible and intangibles peace assets – e.g. confidence building, informal peace alliances, formal institutions, etc. – some of which may help to reduce the severity of the conflict and even survive the collapse of the peace process. This expert analysis deals with the issue of conceptualising success in peace facilitation. From a study of the fundamentals underlying Norwegian peace facilitation, it shows the importance of being able to measure the degree of success of peace processes, presenting a three-tier, modular proposal for Norway to capture tangible and intangible gains in the short, medium and long term.
Topic:
Negotiation, Dialogue, Professionalization, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Norway and Global Focus

82. Conclusions of the Warsaw Dialogue for Democracy

Author:
Jerzy Pomianowski
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
Our discussion made me realise, once again, that democracy has one very important feature, brought to our attention by our friend from Libya: “Democracy has a price which has to be paid.” Indeed, there is a price that we have to pay for democracy. This applies equally to individual nations and international relations. I shall never forget the bitter, but how true remark made by a participant from Syria who reminded us that Kaddafi, Assad, Ben Ali or Mubarak could continue to act as long as we, representatives of democratic countries, shook hands with them. This is an important issue postulating that international relations be built on values.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Democracy, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Poland, Libya, and North Africa

83. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

84. The principles of mediation and the role of third parties in peace processes

Author:
Vicenç Fisas
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report focuses on the roles that third parties should play during a dialogue facilitation process. The high number of negotiations launched and peace agreements reached during 2012 confirms the trend observed during the last decades that the most common form of conflict termination is through negotiated settlements. However, according to the 2012 figures, about 40% of the negotiation process faced serious difficulties or did not achieve any results. Considering that the literature has shown a high correlation between the participation of third parties and peace talks’ success rates, one obvious explanation for the high percentage of peace negotiations that are unable to properly move forward could be the absence of third parties. Another factor could be linked to the performance of third parties when they do participate in dialogue processes. Some of the most frequent causes of crisis in negotiations are the warring parties’ lack of confidence in the facilitating third party. Therefore this report addresses the functions that third parties can perform in a peace process. It defines key concepts, summarises the most important features of peace negotiations in 2012 and addresses the roles of third parties in dialogues to end violence.
Topic:
Negotiation, Mediation, Dialogue, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. Challenges facing the Colombian peace negotiations

Author:
Jorge Orlando Melo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) started in 2012 and have advanced slowly but surely. The rules of procedure – no ceasefire, extreme confidentiality on the discussions, a limited agenda, direct negotiations without civil society participation or international mediation – have helped to isolated the talks from the pressures of everyday reality. In May 2013 the parties announced an agreement on point 1 of the agenda, which deals with the land problem. Negotiations on point 2 – the political participation of the guerrillas – started in July 2013. Four further points have to be discussed: the drugs business, the end of armed conflict, justice and compensation for victims, and the procedures for implementing the agreement. Both sides have used peace negotiations to build up their political image. The FARC, besides supporting or promoting social protests of coca-growing peasants, miners, and other groups with social grievances, has made some proposals not in the agenda, such as the convening of a constitutional assembly or a general reform of the state, but has shown flexibility and for the moment has withdrawn most of these proposals. The negotiations will last longer than previously announced, but both sides have good reasons to maintain them beyond the March 2014 elections, provided that progress is made and there are no extreme provocations by the FARC.
Topic:
Negotiation, FARC, Dialogue, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

86. Breaking the Ice: The Role of Civil Society and Media in Turkey-Armenia Relations

Author:
Susae Elanchenny and Narod Maraşlıyan
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Almost three years have passed since the Protocols on Turkey-Armenia relations were signed in October 2009. With their failure to be ratified than a year later, Turkey-Armenia relations have once again seemingly fallen off of the Turkish government, media and public’s agenda. Three years from now on April 24, Armenians will commemorate the 100th anniversary of the mass massacres and deportations of Armenians that took place in the Ottoman Empire between 1915 and 1917. Without a new initiative to restart the rapprochement process, it seems like the next time the Armenia issue will be on Turkey’s agenda in a significant way will be during this commemoration. In short, official relations are “frozen” at present and perhaps for the near future. Yet GPoT Center’s extensive experience in “second-track” diplomacy and conflict resolution projects in various countries gives it a long-term view that lends it hope about future prospects for TurkeyArmenia relations. Particularly in Armenia, GPoT has enacted and continues to enact numerous exchange programs, roundtable discussions and research projects with its Armenian partners that bring together stakeholders from both countries to create and foster dialogue. The “Dialogue-Building between Turkey and Armenia” program was one of such projects. As GPoT Center Project Officers Susae Elanchenny and Narod Maraşlıyan show in this unique report, civil society and media can play an important role in the normalization process even when official relations are “frozen.” By providing the opportunity for Armenian and Turkish journalists, retired officials and civil society activists to have informed, respectful dialogue with one another, these projects can play a key role in “breaking the ice” in the rapprochement process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Media, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Armenia

87. Charting a Diplomatic Path On the Iran Nuclear Challenge

Author:
Peter Grail
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Even as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rise, the principal parties engaged in the issue say that they seek a peaceful resolution through diplomacy. Earlier this month, Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili reportedly sent a letter to European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton—who represents the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—in response to the six-country offer for the renewal of serious talks on Iran’s nuclear program. With the P5+1 insisting that a diplomatic path to resolve the issue remains open and Tehran’s professed interest in dialogue, the question arises: what steps could the two sides take to resolve the impasse? In her letter to Jalili last October calling for renewed negotiations, Ashton said the process would need to begin with confidence-building measures to facilitate longer-term engagement. Given the current trust deficit and the inability of the fractured Iranian political leadership to agree on whether and how to engage on the nuclear issue, an approach that builds upon short-term arrangements makes sense. But it will also be necessary to have some idea of what the end-goal of such engagement might be. In this respect, Ashton said in her letter that the goal of the six countries is “a comprehensive negotiated, long-term solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” reaffirming the group’s commitment to proposals it put forward 2006 and 2008. This brief provides an overview of these proposals and related confidence-building steps and discusses how they address the critical issue of Iran’s enrichment program.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Dialogue, and P5+1
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

88. Regional Powers in Growing Dialogue: The Brazil-Turkey Strategic Partnership and its Implementation

Author:
Elena Lazarou
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
With a new government in Brasilia, and with Dilma Roussef appearing to distance herself somewhat from some of the most controversial aspects of Lula's foreign policy, speculation abounds regarding how Brazil will follow up on its decisive steps in the Middle East. Iran is a telling, albeit extreme, example. Already, Mrs. Roussef has shown herself to be far more critical of the regime in Teheran, and Antonio Patriota, the new Foreign Minister, has manifested his skepticism with regards to Iranian sincerity, a notable departure from Lula's stance in late 2009 when he publicly asked European leaders to show patience concerning the Iranian case. While we may well be witnessing a change in Brazil's policy towards Iran, this by no means suggests a shift of Brazilian foreign policy interests away from the Middle East. In fact, all signs seem to be suggesting that under Patriota, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry's involvement in and interaction with the region is likely to increase. And while ties with Iran may never reach the level of "warmth" that the Lula-Ahmadinejad handshake suggested, the forecast for Brazil's relations with its real key partner in the region, Turkey, is, if nothing else, promising and likely to endure well beyond the coming year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Brazil, and South America

89. Bulgaria and the Balkans in the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union

Author:
Plamen Pantev, Valeri Ratchev, and Venelin Tsachevski
Publication Date:
07-1995
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Bulgaria's integration in the European Union (EU) became an undoubted strategic objective of the country, forming the basis of a national consensus among the political forces and society in general. The association stage of the integration process implies the beginning of an active, purposeful adaptation of the different branches of national policy to the main directions of EU's common undertakings. This means that the country's foreign relations and national security policy need to adapt to the Common foreign and security policy (CFSP), Common defence policy (CDP) and Common Defence (CD) of EU. A short study cannot cover all essential details about the character, history, formation and implementation of CFSP of EU, as well as specific issues touching certain Bulgarian interests. The Institute for Security and International Studies, recognising the special meaning of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) in 1996 of EU member states, will carry out three other shorter studies, in addition to the present one. This should help develop a better picture of the following issues: the political dialogue of EU with the associated countries in Central and Eastern Europe (ACCEE); the economic factors of stability on the Balkan peninsula; and Russia's relations with EU and the repercussions for Southeast Europe.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Balkans