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52. Arms Control and Strategic Stability with Russia: The View from Europe
- Author:
- Jon B. Wolfsthal and Andrea Kendall-Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- The United States and its NATO partners have successfully managed the challenge of deterrence and reassurance for generations. The risk of conflict, even nuclear conflict, with Russia remains all too real, especially as political and military competition continues to escalate, and as new technologies and capabilities come online that could further raise the risk of direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. Ensuring clear, consistent, and constructive communication among officials and experts within the transatlantic security community about the potential dangers posed by Russian behavior, and how to effectively pursue greater stability together, will be essential if the alliance is to remain successful in the decades to come. The following assessment is informed by conversations among such experts committed to that goal. The memo identifies European allies and partners’ views, interests, and concerns about America’s emerging dialogue with Russia on arms control and strategic stability. It is intended to inform U.S. approaches to alliance management and consultation with European allies as well as potential talks and negotiations with the Russian Federation. Although the expert discussions occurred before Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border resumed in October 2021, the insights the working group produced remain relevant so long as the U.S.-Russia arms control and strategic stability dialogue persists.
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Strategic Stability, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
53. Why Integrate National Peace Structures? Building Community Platforms for Resilience, Early Warning and Dialogue
- Author:
- ACCORD
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- In the last two decades, West Africa has become an incubator for violent conflict whose origins are mostly believed to be rooted outside the region. The current climate of poverty, unemployment, under-development, poor governance, human rights abuses, repression, unprecedented delays and denial of access to justice, and ongoing conflicts have made West Africa a breeding ground for terrorism. The spread of terrorism across the region has intensified exponentially over the past 20 years more than any other time in the history of the region. Terrorism is a major security challenge for Africa as a whole, considering the rising number of attacks, the multiplicity of active terror networks, and the growing links between and among terror groups. Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) are some of the deadliest terrorist organisations that are still highly active in Africa. They constantly mutate into incognito networks, and their actions are also labelled as banditry or cattle rustling, among others, in Nigeria. Terrorism is violence without borders, and its dynamics are highly unpredictable, especially with the skill and ingenuity with which terrorist organisations conceal their real identities.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Peace, Resilience, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
54. North Korea's Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
55. The United States and Viet Nam: Charting the Next 25 Years in Bilateral Security Relations
- Author:
- Jeffrey Ordaniel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and in collaboration with the Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam (DAV), organized the inaugural Track 2 U.S.-Viet Nam Security Dialogue on May 18-20, 2021. Strategic thinkers from the United States and Viet Nam, including scholars, policy experts, and retired military and government officials, participated in the dialogue. This report contains the general summary of the discussions. The recommendations contained in this report, unless otherwise specifically noted, were generated by the discussions as interpreted by the Principal Investigators. This is not a consensus document. Both the agenda and participant list are included in the appendix; all participants attended in their private capacity.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
56. US-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue: Dealing with Increased Chinese Aggressiveness
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Taiwan needs much stronger friendships and more support, particularly from the United States, to counter Chinese moves and enhance deterrence of, and its defense potential against, Beijing. This is urgent because Taiwan no longer holds the qualitative advantage it once had over China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The United States supports a strong, resilient, and democratic Taiwan capable of maintaining its autonomy and ability to counter coercion and defend itself from any source, especially from China. Absent this, Washington’s widely shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific would be permanently undermined. It is clear, therefore, that the United States and Taiwan should step up their joint work and strengthen their security relationship, and it is critical that they do so expeditiously. At the same time, from a US perspective, it is important not to embolden Taipei or exceedingly raise its expectations about the US role to deter and defend against Beijing. While Washington has an interest in strengthening the island’s deterrence and defense potential vis-à-vis Beijing, it also does not want to encourage Taipei to become belligerent toward Beijing. Engagement, therefore, involves striking a tough balance, and many topics to that effect remain difficult—and much too sensitive—to address and discuss at the official level, particularly when it comes to deterrence and defense questions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
57. India’s Options in a Contested Environment: Constraints and Prospects
- Author:
- Prakash Gopal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The past year has witnessed tumultuous and unforeseen changes in the global geopolitical landscape due to the pandemic. While India struggles to contain its devastating second wave, it is simultaneously confronted with a significant national security challenge from across the disputed Himalayan border with China. A skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that started in May 2020 escalated rapidly into a full-blown crisis, with clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, causing casualties on both sides. After multiple rounds of talks, the crisis remains unresolved and has starkly exposed India’s lack of credible deterrence that could either deny or punish China’s belligerence across the unsettled border. In response to the border crisis, the Indian government promoted and contributed to the rapid coalescence of the quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad)—a loose coalition of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Notable milestones in the Quad’s accelerated development include the addition of Australia in the Malabar series of naval exercises and several high-level meetings of officials from the four countries, the highest-profile of which being the first leaders’ summit in March 2021. The assumption that India’s sudden moves to consolidate the Quad were driven primarily by Chinese actions along the LAC may be debated. Nevertheless, if that is the case, it follows that India views its renewed efforts in coalition-building as part of a solution to its China problem. Though the Quad may be useful in tackling security threats in the larger Indo-Pacific region, in the near term, it is unlikely to meaningfully contribute to bolstering India’s ability to deter China along land borders or in the maritime domain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Geopolitics, Borders, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
58. Israel and Lebanon: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?
- Author:
- Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Amidst a deep political and economic crisis in Lebanon, accelerated by the Beirut port explosion in August last year, the end of 2020 witnessed a surprising round of talks regarding the demarcation of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border. These bilateral negotiations - mediated by the U.S. and the U.N. - are the first non-security talks held between the two countries since the 1990s. Of course, Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. The incentives for progress in the talks are strong as they could pave the way for lucrative oil and gas deals on both sides, though there still appear to be significant obstacles on the Lebanese side. Speaking with John Desrocher, the most recent U.S. mediator for the negotiations, in December 2020, Lebanese President Aoun was quoted as saying that Lebanon wants the talks to succeed because “this will strengthen stability in the South and allow us to invest in natural resources of oil and gas.”[1] Could a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon be feasible, despite the otherwise toxic atmosphere between the two countries and the recent escalating threats of Hizballah? In a region full of surprises, this, too, might be a part of a changing reality.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Economy, Negotiation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
59. Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
- Author:
- Cinzia Bianco
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests through deterrence or through promoting a new diplomatic process. The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran. The European interest lies in supporting a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and a regional dialogue between the Gulf monarchies and Iran, an approach that is more likely to promote lasting stability. Europeans can support this process by strengthening their own regional security posture and confronting head-on the geopolitical tensions at the heart of regional rivalries.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
60. Indo-Japan Dialogue in the 20th Century and Cultural Heritage in the New World Order
- Author:
- Rekha Yadav and Anisha Deswal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- The paper presentations on the second day of the conference on ‘Rethinking Cultural Heritage’ continued the trend of research-based studies, as evident on the first day of the meeting.1 Professor Amiya P. Sen began with a note of apology, stating that after reflection, he had changed the title of his presentation to ‘Japan and India as Ontology: Negotiating Modernity, Culture and Cosmopolitanism in Colonial Bengal’. The paper was divided into two parts. The first part of the paper focused on the broad introduction of the structure and arguments which he developed about 19th century Bengal, as the site where the first crop of a Westerneducated Hindu intelligentsia, creatively and actively engaged in a two-way, quite contrary, intellectual enterprise. While it produced some of the greatest supporters of Western modernity, it also created its sharpest critics. The second part of the paper examined changing Indian perceptions of Japan over a period of time, through the writings of two prominent intellectual figures of Bengal, that is Swami Vivekananda (1863-1902), and the poet, Rabindranath Tagore (1861-1941).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, History, Bilateral Relations, Culture, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Japan, South Asia, India, and Asia