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4341. Reducing Bias in Treatment Effect Estimation in Observational Studies Suffering from Missing Data

Author:
Jennifer Hill
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Matching based on estimated propensity scores (that is, the estimated conditional probability of being treated) has become an increasingly popular technique for causal inference over the past decade. By balancing observed covariates, propensity score methods reduce the risk of confounding causal processes. Estimation of propensity scores in the complete data case is generally straightforward since it uses standard methods (e.g. logistic regression or discriminant analysis) and relies on diagnostics that are relatively easy to calculate and interpret. Most studies, however, have missing data. This paper illustrates a principled approach to handling missing data when estimating propensity scores makes use of multiple imputation (MI). Placing the problem within the framework of the Rubin Causal Model makes the assumptions explicit by illustrating the interaction between the treatment assignment mechanism and the missing data mechanism. Several approaches for estimating propensity scores with incomplete data using MI are presented. Results demonstrating improved efficacy compared with existing methodology are discussed. These advantages include greater bias reduction and increased facility in model choice.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Education

4342. (Re)Writing the "National Security State"

Author:
David Grondin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Hans Morgenthau once said that “the intellectual lives in a world that is both separate from and potentially intertwined with that of the politician. The two worlds are separate because they are oriented towards different ultimate values… truth threatens power, and power threatens truth” (Morgenthau, quoted in Hill and Beshoff, 1994: xi). For Christopher Hill and Pamela Beshoff, this means that, as international relations practitioners and theorists, “Like it or not, we are 'intellectuals in politics' and 'the study of international relations is not an innocent profession'”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Diplomacy, and National Security

4343. Abusing History: A Critical Analysis of Mainstream International Relations Theory Misconduct

Author:
Anne Marie D'Aoust
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
In Political Science, the discipline of IR has been widely regarded as an “American Science” ever since Stanley Hoffman published his renowned essay in 1977. This “American Science” is mainly dominated by a single theoretical approach – that of Neorealism – which relies primarily on the concept of historical recurrence to ground its arguments. Other “new” theoretical approaches which challenge this parochialism, namely feminism, constructivism and Critical Theory, remain outside the “official boundaries” of the field. These boundaries are largely set by the Neorealist agenda and its variations, which rarely diverge from an unquestioned central rationalist-empiricist theme. Thus, with respect to its methodological and epistemological stance, Neorealist theory implicitly views History as a vast field of objective data and primary sources ready to reveal their truth to the social scientist. To test and/or prove the validity of Neorealist theory in the field of International Relations, one must refer to historical data and confront theory with “straight facts”. What I propose to do here is to analyze the ways in which the Neorealist approach to International Relations makes use of history, and subsequently to consider some crucial epistomological and theoretical debates in the field of History that are ignored by Neorealists like Waltz.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

4344. Foreign Policy-Making in the Clinton Administration: Reassessing Bosnia and the "Turning Point" of 1995

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
The conflict that ravaged Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 was one of the central international problems that the Clinton White House had to face during its first term. The “issue from hell”, as Warren Christopher famously dubbed it in 19933, was emblematic of the Clinton administration's failure, during the period of January 1993 to late summer 1995, to formulate foreign policies that could produce the results desired by the policy-makers in the West Wing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

4345. "Foreign Policy Is Not What I Came Here to Do" Dissecting Clinton's Foreign Policy-Making: A First Cut

Author:
Séastien Barthe and Charles-Philippe David
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Some presidents fit a pattern. But though Clinton does bear comparison with some of his predecessors, he combines elements of several types and defies (for now) definitive categorization.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

4346. International Diversification at Home and Abroad

Author:
Fang Cai and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze foreigners' and domestic institutional investors' positions in U.S. equities. Controlling for many factors, we uncover a common preference for large firms and firms that are diversified internationally. The domestic preference for internationally diversified firms implies that investors might obtain substantial international diversification by investing at home. Using an international factor model, we show that exposure to foreign equity markets is indeed greater for domestic firms that are more diversified internationally, suggesting that at least some of the home-grown foreign exposure translates into international diversification benefits. After accounting for home-grown foreign exposure, the share of 'foreign' equities in investors' portfolios nearly doubles, reducing (but not eliminating) the observed home bias.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

4347. Foreign Participation in Local-Currency Bond Markets

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and John D. Burger
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze the development of, and foreign participation in, 49 local bond markets. Countries with stable inflation rates and strong creditor rights have more developed local bond markets and rely less on foreign-currency-denominated bonds. Less developed bond markets have returns characterized by high variance and negative skewness, factors eschewed by U.S. investors. Results based on a three-moment CAPM indicate, however, that it is diversifiable idiosyncratic risk that U.S. investors appear to shun. Taken as a whole our results hint at a virtuous cycle of bond market development: Creditor friendly policies and laws can spark local bond market development that enables the development of derivatives markets and, in turn, attracts foreign participation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

4348. Perspectives on Urban Poverty in Latin America

Author:
Craig Fagan
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Urban issues and poverty in Latin America are an integral part of any policy debate on the region. With nearly 90% of its diverse population and 50% of its poor residing in cities, effective and efficient solutions to the problems of poverty are imperative to respond to the increasing demographic and economic pressures placed on Latin America's limited social resources.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

4349. The Role of the Central Public Market in a Twenty-first Century Metropolis

Author:
Maria Elena Ducci
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This paper is designed to provoke discussion on the pros and cons of maintaining a public market in the center of a city such as Santiago, a metropolis of over 5 million inhabitants with serious air pollution and traffic problems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Markets

4350. Making Doha a Developmental Round: What do the Developing Countries Want?

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This report was prepared by William Krist, a Senior Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP). Mr. Krist is working on issues relating to trade and sustainable development. Before becoming a Woodrow Wilson scholar, Mr. Krist was senior vice president at the American Electronics Association, and prior to that, he had been Assistant Trade Representative for Industry in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. He has an MA in economics from George Washington University, and a BA from Swarthmore College.The Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) has been committed to exploration of the connections between environment, population and security since 1994. Through its meetings, its publications, its comprehensive Web site, and the original research carried out by its staff and scholars, ECSP serves as an information clearinghouse. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Wilson Center's Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States