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4271. Election Watch: Japan — Japan's party system: shifting the political axis, releasing economic reform

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Changes in Japan's party system offer new hope for Japan's long-delayed economic reform as the axis of voting power accelerated its shift to the urban areas. The upcoming Upper House1 elections will provide another opportunity to see how far these changes have come and how permanent they are. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated post-war Japanese politics due to the party's overwhelming support in Japan's declining rural areas. The LDP's iron grip on the rural vote has created and been maintained by a nexus of interests between LDP politicians, favoured construction companies and rural voters. This rural public works "glue" has been one of the main reasons the Japanese government has been unable to address its drastically declining fiscal position. The political power of Japan's small farming sector also explains why Japan's bilateral and multilateral free trade diplomacy has not progressed. The November 9 Lower House election results and the rise of a real alternative to the LDP promise to help Prime Minister Koizumi's three-year fight to "modernise" the LDP and make it more appealing to urban and younger voters. November 9's results also suggest that if Koizumi loses this intra-LDP battle, then in the next Lower House elections the LDP will lose. So whether Koizumi is successful or not, economic reform chances in Japan have been boosted. Australia's largest trading partner is better placed for free trade talks bilaterally and globally and to address its worrying fiscal situation, the largest threat looming over Japan's future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia

4272. China Bashing 2004

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
On April 26, 2004, Senator John Kerry released his six-point trade pro - gram, “Trade Enforcement: Asleep at the Wheel,” and conspicuously targeted China for violating worker rights, dumping, and supporting “illegal currency manipulation” (Kerry 2004). Five days earlier, senior Bush administration officials met with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi to settle a few trade disputes (e.g., WiFi) but did not resolve the most contentious ones (exchange rates, semiconductors, and labor rights).
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4273. Islam, Globalization, and Economic Performance in the Middle East

Author:
Marcus Noland and Howard Pack
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Middle East is a demographic time bomb. According to the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) Arab Human Development Report 2002, the population of the Arab region is expected to increase by around 25 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 50 to 60 percent by 2020—or by perhaps 150 million people, a figure equivalent to more than two Egypts. Even under the UNDP's more conservative scenario, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates will be the only Arab countries in 2020 with median ages above 30.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

4274. Senator Kerry on Corporate Tax Reform: Right Diagnosis, Wrong Prescription

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Paul Grieco
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Senator John Kerry has proposed a major overhaul in corporate taxation, with the goal of persuading multinational companies (MNCs) to employ more workers at home and fewer abroad. Kerry has correctly emphasized that domestic production is often taxed at a higher rate than production abroad, but his prescriptions will not boost US jobs.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

4275. Labor Standards, Development, and CAFTA

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The debate over linking trade and worker rights is often a dialogue of the deaf, with advocates on either side paying little attention to the scope for positive synergies between labor standards, development, and globalization. Instead, each side views the other as promoting positions that will, intentionally or not, impoverish poor people in poor countries. Opponents of global labor standards fear that these standards will undermine developing countries' comparative advantage in low-wage goods or be abused for protectionist purposes, thereby denying workers jobs. Standards advocates argue that failure to include labor standards in trade agreements increases inequality and leads to a race to the bottom for workers worldwide.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Central America

4276. WTO, E-commerce, and Information Technologies: From the Uruguay Round through the Doha Development Agenda

Author:
Sacha Wunsch-Vincent
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Although much of the early Internet hype has faded, e-commerce continues to grow and spread around the world. In recent years, the potential and importance of e-commerce to the economies and industries of the developing world has become particularly evident. Yet as e-commerce develops into a global phenomenon, the need for rules and principles facilitating e-commerce has become increasingly evident, too.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Uruguay

4277. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

4278. Selective Intervention and Growth: The Case of Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper attempts to determine whether conditions amenable to successful selective interventions to capture cross-industry externalities are likely to be fulfilled in practice. Three criteria are proposed for good candidates for industrial promotion: that they have strong interindustry links to the rest of the economy, that they lead the rest of the economy in a causal sense, and that they be characterized by a high s hare of industry-specific innovations in output growth. According to these criteria, likely candidates for successful intervention are identified in the Korean data. It is found that, with one exception, none of the sectors promoted by the heavy and chemical industry (HCI) policy fulfills all three criteria.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

4279. Labour Markets and Employment Development in South East Europe

Author:
Hermine Vidovic
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In contrast to the Central European transition countries, the economies of South East Europe (SEE) have been facing complex and interrelated political and economic problems. The dis solution of Yugoslavia combined with market losses, war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, sanctions finally culminating in the Kosovo conflict were the main causes of political and economic instability in the whole region. Taking into account these factors, output recovery has been much slower in SEE than in the Central European countries. Measured in purchasing power standards, Croatia is the best per former in the region, with its GDP at about 38% of the EU average. Next comes Bulgaria (32%), whereas the respective values f or Serbia and Montenegro and Albania range between 15-17%. Looking at the economic performance in the 1990-2002 period, Croatia and Romania reached almost 94% of their pre-transitional level in 2002, followed by Bulgaria and Macedonia (about 88% each). Serbia and Montenegro, the worst-affected, reached only about half of what it was in 1990. The cumulative output decline there was one of the largest among all the Central and East European countries.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro

4280. The Next Wave of Globalization? Exploring the Relocation of Service Provision to India

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The rapid increase in the ability and desire of multinational corporations to offshore services or, what are commonly termed “business processes” to developing nations is becoming a significant international development issue. This paper utilizes a case study of India, the largest recipient of offshored services, to explain the dynamics of offshoring from the perspective of the firm and the recipient nation. The explosion of offshoring is placed within a historical context. The technologies enabling offshoring and the corporate environment are discussed. Finally, the organizational forms involved in offshoring are discussed. The conclusion considers the implications of the offshoring of services for developed and developing nations and possible policy initiatives for developing nations interested in the possibility of entering the ITES sector.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India