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361. A Driver of Green Transition or a Colonial Tailing Dump: Political Discourse on the Jadar Project

Author:
Luka Šterić
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyse the political debate surrounding the Jadar Project. It will present the development of the debate, the key actors, and the dominant discourses that formulated it. The first section of the study is dedicated to understanding the wider context and importance of the project, both in Serbia and globally. In the second, we will present the three stages of the development of the discourse on the Jadar Project so far. We will then go into a detailed analysis of the actors and narratives that have guided the political debate. Finally, in the last section, we will look at the consequences of the debate on the political arena in Serbia, as well as the possible future of the discourse on this project and environmental topics in general.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

362. The Waterfall’s Shadow in the Mekong Region

Author:
Benjamin Jensen, Daniel F. Runde, and Thomas Bryja
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States and its network of democratic partners and allies increasingly find themselves struggling to safeguard the rule of law, free markets, civil liberties, and human security in countries most at risk from climate change and its impact on water security. A network of authoritarian states led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are using infrastructure investment programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) alongside gray zone campaigns to gain access and influence, often in areas most at risk of further climate shock and water insecurity, particularly in the Mekong region. As a result, continuing to develop water strategies offers a viable means of integrating development and deterrence to address core human security challenges and deny further authoritarian access and influence across the world’s most climate-stressed societies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Climate Change, Development, Water, Food Security, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sustainability, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Asia and Mekong River

363. Taxation for development: The impact of the Ebola epidemic on citizen support across West Africa

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez and Shaun Da Costa
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
We explore the impact of the Ebola epidemic on attitudes toward taxation for development in West Africa. Utilising representative surveys from before and after the peak of the crisis, we estimate the impact of Ebola using both objective (recorded case rates) and self-reported measures of exposure (knowing a friend/relative who was infected with/died from Ebola). In addition, we consider the indirect impact of Ebola on redistributive preferences through disruption to different domains of life, including school, work, social gatherings, and medical care. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that higher levels of Ebola exposure and disruption are associated with greater levels of support for taxation for development.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Ebola, Tax Systems, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea

364. Keeping up with the Dlaminis: Perceived inequalities and satisfaction with democracy in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Does perceived inequality shape how satisfied ordinary Africans are with how democracy is functioning in their countries? I use nationally representative Afrobarometer survey data (collected in 2016-2018 in 34 countries, N=45,811) to test whether satisfaction with democracy (SWD) is higher among people who (1) feel that their living conditions are equal to others’ or (2) feel that they are better off than other people. Controlling for both individual- and country-level effects, I show that feeling better off than other people increases satisfaction, and feeling worse off than other people decreases satisfaction, with how democracy is functioning in the respondent’s country. People who feel equal to others are more satisfied than those who feel relatively deprived, but less satisfied than people who say they are better off than others. These results suggest egocentric expectations of the functioning of democracy among ordinary Africans. I demonstrate that these relative assessments are significant and comparable in effect size to widely used predictors of satisfaction with democracy found in the literature, such as economic country-level evaluations, partisanship, and political interest. These results therefore should encourage future research to include individual-level comparative assessments as predictors of SWD. Our results represent the most recent cross-national re-examination of predictors of SWD in Africa. My regression results are widely in line with past empirical research – both in and outside of Africa – and suggest that SWD is primarily shaped by political and economic performance evaluations. This points to the explanatory model of SWD in Africa being relatively stable across time.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

365. “Too late and inadequate:” The Southern African Development Community’s Response to the Conflict in Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambique

Author:
Enock Ndawana
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This article discusses the challenges and prospects facing SAMIM. It augments extant studies on the conflict in northern Mozambique, which had hitherto mainly focused on its causes, dynamics, the challenges and prospects facing the government in fighting against the Ansar al-Sunna terrorist group and the regional implications. The main argument is that though SADC delayed intervening in the conflict in Cabo Delgado, its intervention brought some improvements to the situation, which are yet to be consolidated for sustainable peace to be realized. The analysis in this article is the outcome of data gathered mainly from a review of accessible documentary sources. These include but are not limited to media articles, reports by non-governmental organizations including SADC, journal articles and books on the violent conflict in Mozambique and related developments. The article discusses the causes and drivers of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province and focuses on the challenges and prospects of SADC’s response and the way forward.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

366. Implementing the Co-Development of Interventions to Address Violence Against Women and Girls: A Short Primer

Author:
Andrew Gibbs, Jenevieve Mannell, Jane Ndungu, Rochelle Burgess, and Laura Washington
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
Despite the increasing call for interventions to be co-developed there remains very little practical guidance on how to do this in practice. This Knowledge Exchange, provides some initial guidance on the practice of co-developing VAWG prevention interventions, based on our collective experiences of attempting to do this in a range of settings across low- and middle-income countries and settings and an initial attempt to theorise the process of co-development.
Topic:
Development, Women, Girls, Intervention, and Violence Against Women (VAW)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

367. Characteristics and Determinants of International Migration: The Recent Phenomenon of Migration of Bhutanese to International Destinations

Author:
Tobden Tobden, Lhawang Ugyel, and Tashi Dorjee
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
The trend in international migration has always been increasing. However, in Bhutan, the rising number of international migrants, which has surged in recent years, is a new phenomenon. This paper explores the recent development of international migration of Bhutanese to countries, such as India, Australia, USA and countries in Middle-East Asia. It examines the characteristics of Bhutanese international migrants. The study also analyses the underlying reasons that drives international migration in Bhutan. As such, this study is one of the first comprehensive investigations on international migration of Bhutanese that leverages data from the two major Population and Housing Censuses conducted in the country thus far. In doing so, this paper seeks to provide an insight into the impact of international migration on the demographic structure and the policies that influence such migration.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Urbanization, Rural, Push Factor, and Pull Factor
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

368. A 'Bright Path' Forward or a Grim Dead End? The Political Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan

Author:
Anton Louthan
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
This report assesses the political impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, it examines whether and how the People’s Republic of China can pursue a strategy of economic statecraft to further its foreign policy and political interests in Kazakhstan. Despite Kazakhstan’s importance for the success of the BRI’s overland trade corridors, the report argues that important financial, foreign policy, and political constraints limit Beijing’s potential to influence Nur-Sultan. Beijing’s concerns over upsetting its relationship with the Russian Federation and the fact that the value of bilateral trade, investment, and Kazakhstani indebtedness to China have decreased in recent years suggest that Beijing is less willing to, capable of, or interested in using the BRI to influence Kazakhstan. The perceived closeness in this bilateral relationship has less to do with the influence of the BRI and more to do with the alignment of both countries’ geopolitical interests before the initiative’s creation. The report does not suggest that Chinese influence has decreased, but rather shows how Kazakhstan has been able to maintain a degree of political autonomy. Nur-Sultan has played a proactive role in forming its relationship with Beijing through its pursuit of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s “multi-vector” foreign policy strategy. In diversifying Kazakhstan’s diplomatic, economic, and political ties with Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States, Nur-Sultan has been able to avoid complete dependence on one country. Furthermore, Kazakhstan has been able to shape the size and scope of Chinese economic activity by guiding the initiative’s investments and projects to further the government’s domestic development agenda, Nurly Zhol (translated as “Bright Path”). However, issues related to corruption and deepening ties between Chinese and Kazakhstani elites through the BRI have likely strengthened Kazakhstan’s authoritarian political structure.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Autonomy, and Influence
Political Geography:
China, Kazakhstan, and Asia

369. Control, Development, Legitimacy, and the 2024 Problem: Russia Two Years Before the End of Putin's 4th Term

Author:
András Tóth-Czifra
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
In 2020, the Russian Federation’s legislature adopted constitutional reforms initiated by President Vladimir Putin. The reforms allowed Putin to “zero out” his presidential term count, and thus maintain ambiguity about his plans in 2024. They also set the stage for a radical revamp of governance in the country, with hope to kick-start Russia’s economic growth before 2024 and to ensure that the system could withstand instability stemming from a potential succession crisis. The reforms did bring substantial changes. However, as it is evident from major policies regarding capital investments, public administration, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the reforms left political decision-making top-heavy, poorly informed, short-sighted, and constrained, making it highly questionable whether they could achieve the goal of stimulating growth and stabilizing the regime’s domestic position before 2024. It was amid this set of contradictions and ambiguities that Putin decided to start a war of submission against Ukraine in February 2022. As of March 2022, it is too early to conclusively evaluate the consequences of the war on Russia’s future, and having been finalized in early February, this report cannot attempt to do it. However, by undoing the foundations of economic and social development, the war seems to have set Russia on a course where the regime aims to resolve the contradictions and ambiguities detailed in this report by previously unseen levels of domestic repression and external aggression.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Constitution, Legitimacy, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

370. The Rise of Sino-Russian Biotech Cooperation

Author:
Svitlana Lebedenko
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China’s rise as a global innovation power is rooted in the development of a sovereign innovation infrastructure, one that allows China to compete in high-technology races with the United States. This process is complemented by an intensifying science and technology partnership with the Russian Federation. By decoupling from China and Russia, the United States and its allies are pushing China and Russia closer to each other. The paper discusses recent examples of Sino-Russian biotechnology cooperation projects, offering an early account of the emerging integration of two distinct but complementary innovation infrastructures.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Innovation, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia