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2201. Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, even though the framework for a fair settlement has been on the table since 2005. A comprehensive peace agreement before presidential elections in both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but the two sides still can and should agree before the polls to a document on basic principles, which if necessary clearly indicates the points that are still in dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while they engage in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there is a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years. By about 2012, after which its oil revenue is expected to begin to decline, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution. The international community needs to lose its complacency and do more to encourage the leaderships to prepare their societies for compromise and peace.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

2202. Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
General Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in Pakistan on 3 November 2007. He suspended the constitution, sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and removed other judges of that court who declared his act illegal. Police immediately began arresting lawyers, politicians and human rights activists. Independent television channels were taken off the air and reporting restrictions imposed. Thousands have since been jailed, journalists threatened and protests by lawyers and others suppressed. Replacing dissenting judges with hand-picked appointees, and ruling by decree, Musharraf's objective is to retain personal power by gaining judicial approval for martial law, followed by the creation of a democratic façade through rigged elections. The international community should demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the rule of law and the legitimate judiciary, the release of political prisoners and the appointment of an impartial caretaker government to oversee free and fair elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

2203. Guinea: Change on Hold

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Dix mois après le déclenchement d'un mouvement de révolte populaire contre le régime du président Lansana Conté, au pouvoir depuis 23 ans, et sept mois après la formation d'un nouveau gouvernement, la Guinée est toujours dans une incertitude totale quant à son avenir immédiat. L'état de grâce dont a bénéficié le Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté, celui qui devait conduire le « changement » exigé par le peuple, fut de courte durée. Les fissures au sein du mouvement collectif qui a ébranlé le régime au début de l'année risquent de favoriser une reconquête du pouvoir par le clan présidentiel. Pour éviter tout retour de la violence, le Premier ministre doit impérativement convaincre les citoyens guinéens de sa détermination à oeuvrer en faveur d'une véritable transition démocratique et a besoin de recevoir à cet effet un soutien actif de la Communauté économique des États d'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO) et des partenaires extérieurs, de même que de la France et des États-Unis qui ont des liens de coopération avec l'armée.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

2204. Sri Lanka: Sinhala Nationalism and the Elusive Southern Consensus

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sinhala nationalism, long an obstacle to the resolution of Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict, is again driving political developments on the island. Nationalist parties, opposed to any significant devolution of power to Tamil areas of the north and east and to negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, help set President Mahinda Rajapaksa's agenda. The government takes a hardline stance, responding in part to opposition to the flawed 2002-2006 ceasefire and peace process. Would-be peacemakers need to better understand Sinhala nationalism, which is too often dismissed as merely irrational and racist. With little likelihood of a new formal peace process soon, the longterm challenges it poses to the conflict's resolution need to be addressed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

2205. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

2206. Congo: Staying Engaged after the Elections

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 6 December 2006, Joseph Kabila was sworn in as the first democratically elected president since Congolese independence, concluding a landmark electoral process largely devoid of major violence or gross irregularities. Democratic governance is now expected to support peacebuilding and reconstruction. The new government has weak and barely functioning institutions, however, and the international community, which has given decisive support to the peace process, must continue to help it overcome serious security and political challenges. Immediate agenda items include to set up promptly a new structure to coordinate aid efforts, renew the United Nations Mission (MONUC) with a strong mandate and increase efforts to improve security throughout the country.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

2207. Options for Revenue Generation in Post Conflict Environments

Author:
Michael Carnahan
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper advances five proposals for policies to improve revenue generation in post-conflict environments. In the aftermath of violent conflict there often is a gap between demands for the restoration of basic public goods and services, including jobs and security, and governmental capacity to generate revenue to meet these pressing needs. Improved revenue generation is a key task for building both a sustainable state and a durable peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and Economics

2208. Peacekeeping in Sudan: The Dynamics of Protection, Partnerships and Inclusive Politics

Author:
Ian Johnstone and Alhaji M.S. Bah
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The inter-related conflicts and peace processes in Sudan present a monumental peacekeeping challenge. The protracted crisis in Darfur has put the African Union – and the broader international community -- to a severe test. Plans for a hybrid African Union-United Nations operation there continue, but Khartoum remains opposed. Meanwhile, implementation of the north-south peace agreement is faltering, with the UN mission struggling to keep it on track in the face of indifference from both parties and frequent hostility from the north.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

2209. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2210. Global Imbalances: Time for Action

Author:
William R. Cline, John Williamson, Yung Chul Park, Alan J. Ahearne, Kyung Tae Lee, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
One of the principal dangers currently facing the world economy arises from the large and unsustainable imbalances in current account positions. Some observers argue that these imbalances will unwind gradually and nondisruptively, while others emphasize the risks of a sudden change of sentiment in financial markets that could result in an abrupt and damaging adjustment. No one knows which scenario will materialize, but a priori for policymakers should be to reduce the risks of a crisis, which could produce a world recession and disruptions to the global trading system. For that, the global economy requires official sponsorship of a credible, comprehensive adjustment program. This policy brief outlines such a program.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance