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21. China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
We already have a fairly reliable picture of China’s population profile for the year 2040 because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in China in 2040 are already alive and living there today. China’s population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating tempo thereafter. China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks. These trends can only make for serious economic headwinds, presaging the end of China’s era of “heroic economic growth.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, Political Economy, and Population
Political Geography:
China and Asia

22. The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

Author:
Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.
Topic:
Demographics, War, International Security, Democracy, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Germany, and Global Focus

23. Socio-Political History of Nepal: A Case Study of Nepali Local Government System

Author:
Shoukat Ali and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Nepal is one of the members of SAARC. Like most of other members, Nepal has also a long socio-political history. It has a particular culture that distinguishes it from the other members. The current study is mainly a descriptive study that is based on secondary data in which the researchers collected data from different articles, books and research reports. This article is an attempt to explore the social and political history of Nepal. Nepal has passed through different phases of political rules like the rule of Shah Dynasty and Rana’s rule. During 1950s, Nepal for the first time in the history opened for international community. Nepal practiced Panchayat System as well. The Maoist Movement is also an important phase in the political history of Nepal. Furthermore, the local government system is also discussed in detail by the researchers. Like the different political eras, it also faced many changes. Currently, Nepal is experiencing two tiers Local Government System that is District Development Committee (DDC) and Village Development Committee (VDC).
Topic:
Demographics, Politics, History, Governance, and Culture
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, Nepal, and Punjab

24. Stateless Rohingyas: From Crosshair to Crossroads

Author:
M. Ihsan Qadir, Saif Ur Rehman, and S. M. A. Gardezi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The distressing ethno-demographic conflict in Myanmar is a sordid reality of recent human history. The two ethnic groups; Buddhists and Rohingyas (mainly Muslims) living in North Westerly state (Rakhine State) are at daggers drawn with each other since last many decades. History of this intra-state conflict dates back to British colonization of Burma in 1824. The widespread state sponsored persecution of Rohingya community after Myanmar‟s independence in 1948 has created waves of ethnic and political instability one after the other. Few contributory causes of the conflict include; systematic denial of citizenship rights, restrictions on freedom of movement, absence of healthcare facilities and deprivation of education for Rohingya community. The most serious of all is denial of citizen rights which has rendered the community stateless. The prolonged sufferings at the hands of majority population (Buddhists) have forced this stateless community to contemplate carving out a separate autonomous state by seceding from Myanmar. This resulted in creating gulf of distrust between both the parties triggering a major intrastate conflict in South Asia. The conflict lifecycle has witnessed many rounds of violence resulting in huge destruction of life and property. This article examines regional repercussions of recent cycle of violence and suggests few conflict resolution strategies.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Secession, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

25. Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa Meeting Challenges by Bridging Stakeholders

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Jena Santorn
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Urbanization is transforming the world. According to the 2017 Drivers of Migration and Urbanization in Africa report by the United Nations, more than half of the global population now lives in urban areas. This figure is projected to increase to 75 percent by 2050, at a growing rate of 65 million urban dwellers annually. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often regarded as the world's fastest urbanizing region. Urban areas currently contain 472 million people, and will double over the next 25 years. The global share of African urban residents is projected to grow from 11.3 percent in 2010 to 20.2 percent by 2050. SSA’s 143 cities generate a combined $ 0.5 trillion, totaling 50 percent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP). Urban centers play a critical role in fighting poverty and sustaining economic growth, and are often considered the future of prosperity in the developing world. While strategic urbanization is highly dependent on national macroeconomic policymaking, city governments, the private sector, development practitioners, and urban planners also have critical roles to play. Linking the urbanization management efforts of different stakeholders presents an opportunity for economic growth in a region undergoing an immense demographical shift.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, United Nations, Urbanization, Economic growth, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

26. Unification in Action? The National Identity of North Korean defector-Migrants: Insights and Implications

Author:
Christopher Green and Stephen Denney
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
What can the resettlement of North Korean defector-migrants into South Korean society today tell us about Korean national identity and the likely challenges of integrating the two Koreas tomorrow? In this paper, we report findings from a 2016 national identity survey of 334 North Korean defector-migrants currently residing in South Korea. It compares responses to that of native South Koreans and considers in-group differences of opinion. Overall, we find no substantive identity divergences between those from North Korea and native South Koreans. We do, however, find evidence of significant in-group identity differences, namely cohort effects. Older defector-migrants are more likely to see their “Koreaness” as defined by ethnocultural traits, feel closer to South Korea, and be more “patriotic” than younger migrants.
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Refugees, and Domestic politics
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

27. What’s next for healthcare in Poland: diagnosis and prognosis

Author:
Alicja Domagała, Christoph Sowada, Krzysztof Kuszewski, Marzena Tambor, and Stanisława Golinowska
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The health protection system is the object of constant pressures and difficulties in mitigating them, and even more so eliminating or at least reducing them. Changes are undertaken under the influence of a one-sided political assessment, the interests of various groups of participants or the protests of successive groups of medical staff. There is no professional and fully documented diagnosis of the system, made by independent experts, which could serve as the basis for a comprehensive health protection reform plan, rather than individual, incidental changes that disrupt the system’s already very fragile balance. A well thought-out reform, properly distributed over time, so that at no point does it cause negative health effects. A reform agreed among stake-holders and adopted with understanding of the need for changes, so that it is supported by society. A reform for which there will be funds, institutions and engaged professionals – leaders in health protection. A reform that won’t be criticized or changed when the government changes. Such a reform is waiting to be presented and debated. We begin this process by pointing out and presenting the system’s main problems. At the top of the list of issues that must be taken up urgently we place the problem of insufficient resources, but associated with other activities that are essential to achieve higher effectiveness in accomplishing health goals. There is no single miraculous way of balancing and fixing the functioning of the health protection system. This requires both greater financing, qualitatively and quantitatively appropriate staffing, and good institutions. Financial resources are a necessary condition but not a sufficient one – if there is no staff or appropriate institutions, and these are shaped over years. In this publication we present four subjects, corresponding to that list of the main issues that must be addressed urgently. We begin with the problem of good governance, meaning achieving a decisive improvement in institutional solutions in health protection. Next we take up the problem of the need for growth in financial outlays, with judicious public and individual responsibility. We strongly accent the need for development in Poland of medical and support staff, presenting the problems of neglect and the deep shortage of professionals, which is currently paralyzing the health service. The final text, though no less important in the group of priority problems in health protection, concerns public health and demands that it be properly valued by treating care for the health of the population as an investment in human capital with a measurable and significant rate of return.
Topic:
Demographics, Health, Labor Issues, Governance, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

28. Thinking about pension systems for the 21st century: A few remarks based on the Polish example

Author:
Marek Gora
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The end of 2018 will mark the 20th anniversary of the introduction of Poland’s current pension system. It has been subjected to constant modifications, in general dictated by either ideological or ad hoc goals, but it has resisted destruction, and in essence is working as it was designed. The need for its introduction, misleadingly called a reform, was dictated by a long-term shift in the age structure of the population. In essence, the earlier system was replaced by the current one. The essence of this switch is a shift from the quasi-tax financing suited to the population structure by age of the past, to quasi-savings financing suited to the structure in the 21st century. This text is not an overview of the 20-year history of the current system; it is a critical examination of the functioning of Poland’s pension system against the backdrop of the universal challenges that pension systems are facing in the 21st century. The text barely touches on many fundamental questions. A full discussion of them would require a longer discourse, for which there is no space here. The purpose of introducing the current system was to balance the interests of the working generation and the generation of retirees. The previous system worked only for the interests of retirees, while those of the working generation, expressed in the level of its net income, was treated as an afterthought. This kind of system could operate in the 20th century. But in the 21st, it turned out to be not so much immediately impossible, as socially harmful. A change of system was thus essential. The current system is now quite well suited to the current population structure. The biggest problem in its functioning is citizens’ negligible awareness of how it is actually structured and what that implies – both on the macro level and on the level of individual behaviors. Pension issues are counterintuitive. This results both from their combination of macro- and microeconomic issues and from the fact that their time horizon exceeds any other undertaking. For a pension system to work well, it has to be understood by its participants; meanwhile, pension education practically does not exist. What’s worse, the public debate concerning pensions tends to frighten people rather than helping them. Instead of knowledge, there are chaotic assumptions, often far removed from reality. They are adopted as axiomatic, or as a result of inertia in thinking, or unrealistic expectations. In the first case, the current system is perceived as if it were the previous one. Meanwhile, in reality they are fundamental opposites. In the second case, people expect that the system will miraculously multiply the funds available for pensions. But in reality each system can only divide up what has been created. Discussions partly concern side issues, partly consist of misunderstandings and partly are derivations of general views. Much harm was done by the discussion on changing the proportions of the division of contributions in the universal system (the so-called OFE discussion). Debate on pension questions requires that the issues be laid out in an orderly fashion; we need a critical view of basic concepts and how they are understood. Without that there is no chance to solve the problems of pensions systems, or even to understand what they’re about.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Finance, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

29. Census Towns in India - Current Patterns and Future Discourses

Author:
Shamindra Nath Roy and Jaya Prakash Pradhan
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The surge in census towns (CTs) during Census 2011 has drawn a lot of attention to the ongoing and future dynamics of these in-situ urban settlements in India. Using the village level information from the previous and current censuses, the present study attempts to identify the villages that can be classified as a census town in 2021. While the prevailing dataset bears some obstacles for a neat identification of such settlements, it can be observed that a fairly high number of rural areas may be classified as CTs in future, which currently accommodates a population of 17.9 million. While the current nature of regional distribution of these areas may not vary much over the future, their areal characteristics over time portray multiple spatial processes undergirding India’s urban trajectory. A lot of these prospective CTs are also relatively prosperous than their current rural neighbourhoods, which reinforces the persistence of similar pattern of urban transformation in future.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Urbanization, Census, and Rural
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

30. Plugging In Energy Demand in Indian Residences

Author:
Radhika Khosla
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India is poised at the edge of an energy transformation. This shift is shaped in large part by the country’s ongoing economic, social, and technological transitions. Indian cities will host an influx of 200 million more people by 2030. Most of these people will come from a low base of development, and will demand modern fuels, appliances, and vehicles for improved quality of life. Demographically, at least 10 million people are expected to enter the Indian job market annually for the next two decades (India’s Half-A-Billion Jobs Conundrum 2017). In addition, two-thirds of India’s buildings that will exist in 2030 remain to be built (McKinsey Global Institute 2010). Managing these transitions is a significant challenge in itself, further complicated by the need to address their immense energy and climate implications. This policy piece examines an important driver of India’s energy future—electricity demand in households—and argues for why a broader consideration of energy consumption is central to Indian energy and climate debates.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Electricity
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia