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141. Vanishing Third World Emigrants?

Author:
Jeffrey G. Williamson and Timothy J. Hatton
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970-the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be blacker and fewer will speak Spanish.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Migration, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

142. Biosecurity: Task Forces on Strengthening Multilateral Security Capacity

Author:
Pim Valdre
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Unprecedented progress in biotechnology holds the prospect of historic improvements in the welfare of humankind. Used responsibly, biotechnology can help address food insecurity, improve human health, provide solutions for environmental degradation, and help countries leapfrog in technological development. Used carelessly, or misused deliberately, biotechnology could inflict considerable human suffering—from the disastrous effects of bioweapons, to the accidental and deliberate spread of disease by state and nonstate actors.
Topic:
Agriculture, Demographics, Third World, and Food

143. Income Per Natural: Measuring Development for People rather than Places - Working Paper 143

Author:
Michael Clemens and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
It is easy to learn the average income of a resident of El Salvador or Albania. But there is no systematic source of information on the average income of a Salvadoran or Albanian. We create a first estimate a new statistic: income per natural—the mean annual income of persons born in a given country, regardless of where that person now resides. If income per capita has any interpretation as a welfare measure, exclusive focus on the nationally resident population can lead to substantial errors of the income of the natural population for countries where emigration is an important path to greater welfare. The estimates differ substantially from traditional measures of GDP or GNI per resident, and not just for a handful of tiny countries. Almost 43 million people live in a group of countries whose income per natural collectively is 50% higher than GDP per resident. For 1.1 billion people the difference exceeds 10%. We also show that poverty estimates are very different for national residents and naturals; for example, 26 percent of Haitian naturals who are not poor by the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States. These estimates are simply descriptive statistics and do not depend on any assumptions about how much of observed income differences across naturals is selection and how much is a pure location effect. Our conservative, if rough, estimate is that three quarters of this difference represents the effect of international migration on income per natural. This means that departing one's country of birth is today one of the most important sources of poverty reduction for a large portion of the developing world. If economic development is defined as rising human well being, then a residence-neutral measure of well-being emphasizes that crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development, it is economic development.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, Migration, Poverty, and Population
Political Geography:
United States and Albania

144. Gender and Ethnicity in Post-Conflict Kosovo

Author:
Ira N. Gang, Sumon Kumar Bhaumik, and Myeong-Su Yun
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper examines the comparative economic wellbeing of female- and male-headed households among Serbs and Albanians in post-conflict Kosovo. Evidence from the living standards measurement study (LSMS) household survey, 2001, shows that Serb households, both those headed by women and men, are worse off than Albanians households. We find that female-headed households do not generally suffer more than male-headed households, but there is substantial variation among ethnic groups. While Albanian female-headed households are marginally better-off than Albanian male-headed households, Serb female-headed households have the lowest standard of living.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Balkans, and Albania

145. Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Stephanié Rossouw
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A small but growing literature has been concerned about the economic (and environmental) vulnerability on the level of countries. Less attention is paid to the economic vulnerability of different regions within countries. By focusing on the vulnerability of subnational regions, our paper contributes to the small literature on the 'vulnerability of place'. We see the vulnerability of place as being due to vulnerability in various domains, such as economic vulnerability, vulnerability of environment, and governance, demographic and health fragilities. We use a subnational dataset on 354 magisterial districts from South Africa, recognize the potential relevance of measuring vulnerability on a subnational level, and construct a local vulnerability index (LVI) for the various districts. We condition this index on district per capita income and term this a vulnerability intervention index (VII) interpreting this as an indicator of where higher income per capita, often seen in the literature as a measure of resilience, will in itself be unlikely to reduce vulnerability.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

146. Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India

Author:
Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty components. Our decomposition shows that idiosyncratic risks account for the largest share, followed by poverty and aggregate risks. Despite some degree of risk-sharing, the landless or small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, forcing them to reduce consumption. Income-augmenting policies therefore must be combined with those that not only reduce aggregate and idiosyncratic risks but also build resilience against them.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
India and Asia

147. Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam's Global Gathering

Author:
Michael Kremer, Asim Khwaja, and David Clingingsmith
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
We estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by Pakistan to allocate Hajj visas. Pilgrim accounts stress that the Hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow Muslims, but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. We find that participation in the Hajj increases observance of global Islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry. It increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and Islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women, including greater acceptance of female education and employment. Increased unity within the Islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. Instead, Hajjis show increased belief in peace, and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions. The evidence suggests that these changes are more a result of exposure to and interaction with Hajjis from around the world, rather than religious instruction or a changed social role of pilgrims upon return.
Topic:
Demographics, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Mecca

148. Barack Obama's Social Security Donut Hole

Author:
Andrew G. Biggs
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Until recently, Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) was surprisingly responsible regarding Social Security, noting the urgency of reform and saying all options should be on the table. But having cornered himself with Democratic activists whose attitudes toward Social Security reform range from demagoguery to denial, his solution to the system's problems has veered leftward. He now plans to fix Social Security exclusively with higher taxes. The new Obama plan would not only fail to resolve the system's long-term problems, but would also impose significant costs on the economy as a whole.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

149. Little League, Huge Effect

Author:
Kevin A. Hassett and Scott Ganz
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
When pundits discuss the influence of sports on American culture, they often emphasize the negatives: Michael Vick and dog fighting, the steroids scandals in baseball, lewd fan behavior in football, or doping incidents in cycling and track. But below the radar of popular athletic culture is something that has profoundly shaped the lives of millions of Americans for the better: youth sports. A growing body of research is showing the social and economic benefits of participation in youth sports to be surprisingly large and overwhelmingly positive. Other things being equal, if a kid plays sports, he will earn more money, stay in school longer, and be more engaged in civic life.
Topic:
Demographics and Education
Political Geography:
United States

150. Who Are the Catalans? Language, Identity and Assimilation in Contemporary Catalonia

Author:
Thomas Jeffrey Miley
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper analyzes patterns of linguistic adaptation, cultural assimilation, and hidden contestation in contemporary Catalonia. It makes use of public opinion data available for the general population there, compared and contrasted with the results of primary research from 355 interviews conducted by this author with a random sample of Catalan politicians and schoolteachers. In the process, it assesses the relative merits of the “competitive assimilation” thesis, the dominant framework for understanding the dynamics of language politics in Catalonia. It contends that this thesis is critically flawed, both as description and as explanation.
Topic:
Civil Society and Demographics
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Catalonia