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102. Urban Fragility and Security in Africa
- Author:
- Stephen Commins
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Unprecedented rates of urban migration over the past decade have contributed to a dramatic expansion in the size of urban slums and higher levels of poverty, violence, and instability in Africa's cities. The drivers of violence associated with urban fragility are primarily related to weak and illegitimate governance, inequitable development, limited livelihood opportunities, and legal structures that inhibit land tenure and new business start-up. Solutions to Africa's urban fragility cannot be addressed solely through security structures but must be part of a broader development strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa
103. Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War: Regional Heterogeneity in the Structural Relationship Matters
- Author:
- Markus Brückner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- A common finding in the empirical civil war literature is that population size and per capita income are highly significant predictors of civil war incidence and onset. This paper shows that the common finding of population size and per capita income having a significant average effect on civil war risk in a world sample breaks down once country- and year-specific unobservables are accounted for. However, for Sub-Saharan Africa there continues to be a highly significant average effect of population size and per capita income on civil war risk that is robust to the use of country- and year-fixed effects and instrumental variable techniques.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Demographics, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
104. Is Internal Migration Bad for Receiving Urban Centres? Evidence from Brazil, 1995-2000
- Author:
- Céline Ferré*
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- During the twentieth century, internal migration and urbanization shaped Brazil's economic and social landscape. Cities grew tremendously, while immigration participated in the rapid urbanization process and the redistribution of poverty between rural and urban areas. In 1950, about a third of Brazil's population lived in cities; this figure grew to approximately 80 per cent by the end of the nineteenth century. The Brazilian population redistributed unevenly—some dynamic regions became population magnets, and some neighbourhoods within cities became gateway clusters in which the effects of immigration proved particularly salient. This study asks, has domestic migration to cities been part of a healthy process of economic transition and mobility for the country and its households? Or has it been a perverse trap?
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Brazil, and Latin America
105. Focus UNFPA: Four Recommendations for Action
- Author:
- Katie Stein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- With a new executive director appointed in November 2010, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is in a position to re-assert its role and lead the world's effort toward landmark achievements in improving women's health and well-being. The Fund's performance will literally be a matter of life or death for millions of women and children. The numbers speak for themselves: an estimated 215 million women lack access to modern contraceptives, and there are approximately 350,000 maternal deaths each year. As the lead agency for the United Nations' work on population and reproductive health, UNFPA can reduce this terrible and unnecessary toll of lost lives.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Gender Issues, Health, and United Nations
106. NATO's Retirement? Essays in Honour of Peter Volten
- Author:
- Margriet Drent (ed), Arjan van den Assem (ed), and Jaap de Wilde (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This book reflects on retirements. Real ones and potential ones. Normally, age is the indicator. End of career is often implied. NATO's retirement can be expected in 2014. According to myth and a bit of historical evidence, in 1889 Bismarck introduced 65 as the proper age for retirement for the very reason that on average most people didn't reach it. Peter Volten will. Nowadays, social welfare states – and also less social ones – have fear for old people. 'Ageing' has been securitized. It forms a threat to the stability of Europe, if not the entire world. The UN's Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing dates back to 1982. But despite its continued attention and relevance, alarming reports keep appearing. “Why an ageing population is the greatest threat to society”, The Independent wrote in 2002 when the UN Second World Assembly on Ageing took place in Madrid: “Of all the threats to human society, including war, disease and natural disaster, one outranks all others. It is the ageing human population. No invading army, volcanic eruption or yet undreamt of plague can rival ageing in the breadth or depth of its impact on society” (Jeremy Laurance in The Independent, 10 April 2002). Still, up to now, ageing has not been listed in the strategic reports of NATO about the new, non-traditional threats. After the Cold War, NATO appeared quite creative in listing new risks and threats, and it still is. The New Strategic Concept adopted in November 2010 tries to provide an answer to “regional disputes or efforts of political intimidation ... along [NATO's] borders ... acts of terrorism, the proliferation of nuclear and other advanced weapons technologies, cyber attacks ... the sabotage of energy pipelines, the disruption of critical maritime supple routes”, and, yes, the Official Report of the Group of Experts on a New Strategic Concept for NATO also mentions “demographic changes that could aggravate such global problems as poverty, hunger, illegal immigration, and pandemic disease” – but ageing is not specified in this context (NATO, 2010).The growing sum of pensions, however, puts the working classes under pressure. It burdens the competitive edge of the European economies. Greying is an economic security issue, and Peter Volten is going to contribute to it.
- Topic:
- NATO, Demographics, Health, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United Nations
107. World Population Prospects and the Global Economic Outlook
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This paper examines global demographic prospects to the year 2030 and assesses the influence that impending population trends may have upon economic performance in coming years for the world as a whole and the major regional economies. A reasonably reliable assessment of prospective global trends to 2030 is feasible today because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in that future world are already here, alive today. This includes all of that future world's senior citizens and almost its entire workforce. Major changes in global population trends are in the offing--among these, a sharp slowdown in the growth of available manpower, with impending declines of manpower for some regions, and pervasive population aging. Furthermore, in many of today's important "emerging markets" demographic pressures may constrain economic growth more significantly than is currently appreciated. Coping with these looming demographic realities will require far-reaching reforms and innovations if we hope to maintain the pre-crisis tempo of global economic growth (much less accelerate it).
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
108. The Security Sector in Côte d'Ivoire: A Source of Conflict and a Key to Peace
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The security sector in Côte d'Ivoire is both at the root of the recent crisis and the key to finding a way forward. While successive attempts to resolve divisions have recognized some of the larger challenges of security-sector reform (SSR), the failure to reunify the Ivoirian security forces prior to holding the presidential elections in 2010 was a key factor behind the recent crisis and contributed to its escalation into a military confrontation-a confrontation that included violence against civilians committed by both sides. The decade-long crisis and its latest episode have made the politicians in Côte d'Ivoire increasingly dependent on uniformed men. This will have to be addressed through comprehensive security-sector reform to prevent a return to armed conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Demographics, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa
109. Human resources in China Prepare for opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
- Topic:
- Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China
110. A Summary of the Liveability Ranking: and Overview
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The concept of liveability is simple: it assesses which locations around the world provide the best or the worst living conditions. Assessing liveability has a broad range of uses. The survey originated as a means of testing whether Human Resource Departments needed to assign a hardship allowance as part of expatriate relocation packages. While this function is still a central potential use of the survey, it has also evolved as a broad means of benchmarking cities. This means that liveability is increasingly used by city councils, organisations or corporate entities looking to test their locations against others to see general areas where liveability can differ.
- Topic:
- Crime, Demographics, Economics, Political Economy, and Social Stratification