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1261. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

1262. Walk Softly and Look Ahead in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Zia Mian
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Before September 11, South Asia's problems loomed large. The region, with over a billion people, a history of war, rising religious militancy, newly tested nuclear weapons, and a gettough mood, was on the brink of instability. Adding to South Asia's long list of troubles is the U.S. war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. Hasty U.S. actions could deepen the problems facing South Asia. Over the long term, the U.S. has the opportunity to foster regional stability—but only if it pursues a different set of policies in the region.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and Taliban

1263. Terrorism: Threat and Responses

Author:
Jean-Louis Bruguière
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Along with the highly developed forms of organized crime, can terrorism be ranked in the category of the tough challenges which the world has to face? This question is worth asking, as too often the perception of that threat is a faint one.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

1264. The European Union as a Security Actor in the Mediterranean

Author:
Fred Tanner and Joanna Schemm
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The publication of the proceedings of the GCSP workshop on the European Union and the Mediterranean is timely in more ways than one. First of all, the sudden emergence of European Security and Defence Policy from 1999 onwards has generated the need to examine the security and defence dimension of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. The partnership was obviously not established in connection with ESDP in mind – if only because ESDP did not exist yet at the time of the launching of the Barcelona process – but the Barcelona process clearly has security and defence implications and ESDP necessarily has a Mediterranean dimension. Secondly, and more tentatively, the ESDP is likely to increase its focus on the Mediterranean as the wars of succession in the former Socialist Federation of Yugoslavia are progressively brought to a close. Not unnaturally, the conflicts which have worked their way down the length of post-Tito Yugoslavia from Slovenia in June 1991 to Macedonia ten years later, have been the foremost security and defence concern of the members of the European Union. These wars have not yet played themselves out, as events in Macedonia demonstrate; nor is it likely that European forces deployed in Bosnia and Kosovo will be withdrawn anytime soon. By the time the ESDP Rapid Reaction Force is ready in 2003, the European strategic spotlight may well have shifted from the Balkan doorstep to the broader Mediterranean arena. Thirdly, a number of substantial material changes are due to occur within the European Union during the next two to four years. At the military end of the spectrum, we have the 2003 goal for the Rapid Reaction Force, for which a strategic rationale will need to be found above and beyond the important but exceedingly vague statement that it is supposed to fulfil the Petersberg tasks, “including the most demanding” to use official European Council language. In institutional terms, the EU is preparing itself for the rendez-vous of 2004, which may or may not be a constitutional convention. Given the widely recognised need to give greater clarity and accountability to the EU's institutions – and this is a requirement which appears to be shared by Europhiles and Euroskeptics alike – chances are that this will not simply be an inter-governmental conference of the sort which led to the Amsterdam and Nice treaties. And then, of course, we have enlargement, which in EU terms will not only mesh in with the institutional debate, but which will also broaden the cast of players involved in the Euro-Med process. This applies even more to NATO enlargement: with something akin to a “Big Bang” beginning to take shape as NATO's current members prepare for the 2002 Prague Summit, countries such as Romania and Bulgaria will give a greater “Southern” tilt to the Alliance, before joining the European Union at a subsequent stage.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1265. Strategic Challenges for the Bush Administration

Author:
Stephen J. Flanagan
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
As the Bush administration settles into office, the United States confronts an international environment marked by growing volatility and rapid change. What security challenges will the new administration face, and what strategies are available for managing these challenges? To answer these questions, leading policy specialists in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University recently prepared a series of assessments for the Department of Defense. These perspectives are presented in this occasional paper. Together with the Institute's previously published Report of the National Defense University Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Working Group, these assessments offer a broad menu of security policy choices.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States

1266. The Rapid Reaction Force: The EU takes stock

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Jamie Woodbridge, Lorraine Mullally, Annalisa Monaco, and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
On 19 November EU Foreign and Defence Ministers gathered in Brussels for the Capability Improvement Conference (CIC) to assess progress made in filling the capability gaps to meet the Helsinki Headline Goal (being able to deploy 60 000 men in less than 60 days and to sustain them for at least one year). The CIC confirmed that the EU should be able to carry out the whole range of crisis management tasks by 2003, but cautioned that further efforts must be made if it is to be able to carry out complex operations without undue risk. In response to the shortcomings identified, Member States have agreed on a European Capability Action Plan to gradually advance national and multinational solutions.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1267. The EU takes on Terrorism

Author:
Marta Martinelli, Catriona Gourlay, Lorraine Mullally, Sibylle Bauer, and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September have added a sense of urgency to the elaboration of a European Union policy on terrorism, something that had already been in the pipeline for a number of months under the auspices of the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) Council and the Commission's Directorate- General for JHA. While the immediate policy response of the EU mainly reflected these third pillar initiatives, it is likely that the 11 September attacks will lead to a re-evaluation across the EU policy spectrum. This article outlines some of the areas that could be considered prime candidates for action by the EU as part of its overall counter-terrorism strategy.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1268. Europe Moves Forward on its Own Missile Proliferation Agenda

Author:
Simon Taylor, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Philippe Manigart
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The missile defence debate has gained serious momentum in Europe since US President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. Reactions in Europe to US missile defence plans have been negative, ranging from scepticism to outrage, with a slight softening of positions in recent weeks .The EU has had no common position on the issue but has now reconfirmed its commitment to multilateral solutions to the threat of missile proliferation with a declaration which aims to reinforce preventive regimes.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1269. Conflict Prevention Takes Centre Stage

Author:
Catriona Gourlay and Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The Göteborg European Council endorsed the Swedishled EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts. The Programme is the result of the Swedish Presidency's drive to put conflict prevention on equal footing with, while distinguishing it from, the development of EU crisis management capabilities. It sets out ambitious goals and a broad mandate for further action, identifying over 20 actions to be elaborated under successive Presidencies. The success of the Programme nevertheless depends on its implementation by future Presidencies, Member States and the Commission.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

1270. The Fuss About Turkey

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Natalie Pauwels, Sharon Riggle, and Thomas Sköld
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Agreement on EU-NATO cooperation is vital to the development of the common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) since the EU plans to rely on access to certain common NATO assets for EUled crisis management operations. Turkey, a key non- EU European NATO member, argues that it is underrepresented in ESDP structures and is threatening to block such an agreement unless the EU adopts new mechanisms to further involve it in ESDP decision-shaping and planning. This article explores the grounds for Turkish dissention, EU resistance and whether there may be room for compromise.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey