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62. How Leaders Can Stop Corona from Undermining the EU: The Health and Economic Crises Require Coordinated Handling
- Author:
- Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Political stability, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
63. A New Risk to the EU from Coronavirus Viktor Orbán’s Hungary
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Political leaders could abuse the coronavirus crisis to undermine democracy. Europe’s biggest risk is Hungary. In late March, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could use his two-thirds majority in parliament to push through a law that would empower him to rule by decrees with no specified time limit. If he succeeds, it will undermine the European Union’s core principles, making the EU even more fragmented and difficult to manage once the pandemic is over.
- Topic:
- Government, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
64. Coronavirus in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood: Why Brussels Needs to Scale Up Its Support
- Author:
- Cristina Gherasimov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- While the magnitude of the current pandemic is still unknown, Eastern Europe might be facing a major regional catastrophe. The six countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) have dysfunctional health-care systems and lack resources and protective equipment for their doctors and hospitals. The European Commission’s offer of immediate assistance is good news. However, much more will be needed to help the EU’s eastern partners fight the coronavirus and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of this crisis.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Brussels
65. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q3 Update
- Author:
- Hiba Itani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board estimates the Gulf region’s GDP growth to fall at -5.7 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The slight improvement in oil prices in Q3 along with the easing of production cuts as of August will give oil GDP a small boost. As worries of a possible second wave of coronavirus in Q4 mount, consumer demand will weaken further, netting the rise in oil GDP.
- Topic:
- Oil, GDP, Economy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
66. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders
- Author:
- David Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia
67. Iran’s Battered Economy
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the Iranian economy in 2020 in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic and economic sanctions.
- Topic:
- Economy, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
68. Amendments to state budget of Azerbaijan for 2020: Reasons and Expectations
- Author:
- Narmina Gasimova and Nigar İslamlı
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Nowadays, global economic growth has been severely affected beyond anything passed in nearly a century. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease has brought its negative impact and destructive outcome on the economies alongside with the sharp fluctuations in global energy and stock markets. There might be observed a subsequent sharp decline in the number of transactions and practical shutdown of many markets due to the large-scale quarantine and self-isolation measures. Taking into consideration the abovementioned factors, it becomes clear that there emerged a need to revise all economic forecasts for 2020-2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of the global economic growth rate in April (-3%), but in accordance with the current circumstances, the figures were revised in June, representing a 4.9% decrease. In spite of a fact that Azerbaijan became one of the first countries among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic problems caused due to the pandemic, the impact of the emerged difficulties made a necessity to revise the budget.
- Topic:
- Budget, GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, IMF, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
69. Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
- Author:
- Andrew Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The European Union was largely on the sidelines when the Belarusian regime rigged the 2020 presidential election, but upcoming votes in Georgia and Moldova pose a different challenge. The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks. The bloc will need to account for the obstacles created by the coronavirus crisis, not least the difficulty of conducting large-scale monitoring missions. The EU will also need to adjust to the ruling parties’ use of pandemic assistance for political gain, and their efforts to prevent citizens abroad from voting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Elections, European Union, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus
70. Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
- Author:
- Julien Barnes-Dacey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- After nine years of conflict, the US is mounting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Syria, seeking the regime’s demise. But, with Assad having effectively won the war, he is unlikely to succumb to US economic pressure. Assad bears responsibility for the country’s freefall but this strategy will further accelerate societal collapse, especially as coronavirus looms, and will not deliver a transition. European governments should pivot to a longer-term strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future aligned with European interests. This should include increased – and cautious – support to them within government-controlled Syria. The unpredictability of the Trump administration means persuading the US down this track is not impossible – Europeans should seek to influence Washington to widen space for societal support.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Syria