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611. South Caucasus: What Prospects after Twenty Years of "Managed Instability"?

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the three Caucasian Republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the region remains characterized by a state of “managed instability” due to the absence of solutions to the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and between Georgia and Russia (over territorial issues and political differences). Negotiation mechanisms aimed at solving these issues exist (since 1992 for Nagorno-Karabakh, and since 1991 for Georgia), but they do not appear to produce meaningful results, raising questions on the purpose of these mechanisms and the future of the region beyond the lasting status quo. A movement toward deeper instability in the region, which cannot be excluded, would pose a direct security threat to Europe, as well as to Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

612. Liberal or Illiberal? Discord within the Danish-Swedish Pacific Community

Author:
Pertti Joenniemi
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Rather than being amiable, the Danish-Swedish relations have more recently turned somewhat contested. Arguments like the other being quite illiberal have frequently been aired in the public debate. The aim of the paper is hence to explored the rift in order to pursue broader questions about the relationship between two neighbouring countries actually quite similar to each other and broadly recognized not only as liberal and democratic, but also seen as inherently peaceful due to their belonging to the rather pacific community of Nordic countries. Does the crux of the issue consist of similarity having turned too intimate and therefore intolerable, or are Denmark and Sweden instead on their way to sliding apart with their previously rather homogeneous nature in decline and the increase in differences then also amounting to discord and distrust? Answers are sought for by probing the debate and more generally by revisiting relevant theorizations, including the traditional ways of accounting for the pacific nature of Nordic commonality. The findings are then placed in a broader IR-perspective as to use of democracy and liberal values in the construction of similarity and difference, i.e. departures crucial in the ordering of political space.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe

613. A Review of the 2001 Bonn Conference and Application to the Road Ahead in Afghanistan

Author:
Mark Fields and Ramsha Ahmed
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Ten years ago in Bonn, Germany, the United Nations Envoy to Afghanistan, Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, and U.S. Envoy to the Afghan Opposition, Ambassador James Dobbins, led a diverse group of international diplomats and warriors to consensus and charted the political course for Afghanistan well into the decade. The process that led to the Bonn Agreement (Bonn 2001, or Bonn I) reflects the best of U.S. and United Nations statesmanship and was the result of the effective application of military and diplomatic power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Germany

614. Microfinance on the Ground in Post-Conflict Juba, South Sudan

Author:
Crystal Murphy
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Though microfinance is championed in “typical” underdeveloped societies, its appropriateness for societies in the wake of conflict is not certain. Through in-depth field interviews and subsequent narrative analysis, this essay details lived realities of microfinance in Juba, South Sudan since the 20 05 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. It describes how repatriates navigate the complex new economy, credit, and income opportunities to secure livelihoods after war. It finds that microfinance in Juba does serve some worthwhile ends in the post-conflict economy, which, however, complicate the industry's success narratives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, South Sudan, and Juba

615. The Gulf States and Syria

Author:
Emile Hokayem
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The unrest in Syria offers the Gulf States an opportunity to weaken or even dislodge an Assad regime aligned with Iran, but their ability to project power or shape events in Syria is limited. Dislike of the Assad regime doesn't necessarily align Gulf interests and long-term vision for Syria. Moreover, cooperation on diplomacy and strategy is lacking. Sectarianism, most evidenced in media commentary and clerical statements, is already a major feature of Gulf discourse on Syria. Parts of the Syrian opposition have approached and have been courted by Gulf governments. Still, a degree of unease and mistrust continues to define their relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

616. Constitutional Interpretation and the Continuing Crisis in Afghanistan

Author:
Scott Worden and Sylvana Q. Sinha
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent controversy in Afghanistan over the outcome of the 2010 parliamentary elections ultimately resolved the question of who sits in Parliament, but left a more fundamental question unanswered: "Who has the power to interpret the Afghan Constitution?" Ambiguities in the language of the Constitution make it difficult to determine who has the legal authority to interpret it. The Supreme Court maintains that the Constitution gives it the power of judicial review, but the Constitution also calls for the Independent Commission on the Supervision of Implementation of the Constitution (ICSIC), which the Parliament has mandated to decide constitutional issues instead. Without political and legal consensus over who has final authority to decide different types of constitutional claims, Afghanistan cannot achieve a rule of law where government activities are subject to consistent and transparent rules. Afghanistan must establish clear and unambiguous rules for constitutional interpretation to avoid damaging crises about political leadership and the separation of powers as the security transition and Presidential election approach in 2014.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

617. Return to War in Sudan's Nuba Mountains

Author:
Julie Flint
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The response to the renewed war in Sudan's Nuba Mountains has been driven largely by a human rights and humanitarian crisis. The crisis will continue indefinitely without a political agreement that acknowledges the Nuba rebellion is self-sustaining and reflects a wider malaise within the new Republic of Sudan. With Sudan facing financial collapse, economic normalization must be part of negotiations with Khartoum to end the war in the Nuba Mountains and promote democratization throughout Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Human Rights, War, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

618. Towards a regional security regime for the middle east

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The SIPRI Middle East Expert Group met four times over an 18-month period to consider how a regional security regime might be developed. The principal points of this report are:Further progress in the Middle East peace process would create a suitable political climate for consideration of a regional security regime.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

619. Conflict Minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Aligning Trade and Security Interventions

Author:
Ruben de Koning
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Mineral resources have played a crucial role in fuelling protracted armed conflict in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Resource revenues obtained by looting, illegal levies and more sophisticated entrepreneurial involvement help foreign rebels and Congolese militia to finance violence and to withstand military defeat and pressure to lay down arms. However, the regular armed forces are becoming equally involved in illegal exploitation of mineral extraction and trade. The thirst for resource revenues spurs rivalry between regular army units and undermines effective command and control.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Struggle, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

620. Reporting to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms

Author:
Paul Holtom, Lucie béraud-Sudreau, and Henning Weber
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The key international mechanism for states to report on international arms transfers is the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA). UNROCA was established to build confidence and cooperation between states. The information provided by states to UNROCA is used in analyses of states' intentions and capabilities and in bilateral or regional consultations to help avoid misinterpretations, miscalculations and the exaggeration of threats that can influence arms races and armed conflicts. Information reported to UNROCA is made publicly available. Therefore parliamentarians and interested citizens can use UNROCA to help monitor their government's compliance with its national and international legal obligations regarding the prevention of conflict, human rights violations and, to a degree, illicit arms transfers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, and Armed Struggle