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382. The future of Israel-Palestine: a one-state reality in the making
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- With no agreement on a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in sight, one-state dynamics are gaining momentum – a development that will be difficult to reverse or even contain. In the medium and long term, no one benefits from such a development. Indeed, all might lose: an ugly one-state dynamic has no happy ending, and such a solution is rejected by Palestinians and Israelis alike. Instead, the emerging one-state reality increases the potential for various kinds of conflicts and contradictory impulses. The international community too finds itself unprepared and perhaps unwilling to confront this emerging reality, but in doing so it imperils the prospects for peace in the region – the exact thing it seeks to promote.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
383. Palestinian youth and the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Jacob Høigilt, Mona Christophersen, and Åge A. Tiltnes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This report investigates young Palestinians' views of their economic and political situation and their interest and level of engagement in politics with reference to two momentous political events in 2011: the Arab Spring and the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. A main question is whether the Occupied Palestinian Territories are experiencing a reinvigoration of youth activism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Demographics, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations
384. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case
- Author:
- Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
385. Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society
- Author:
- Sabine Kurtenbach
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, War, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia and Guatemala
386. Broadening the Base of United Nations Troop-and Police-Contributing Countries
- Author:
- Paul D. Williams and Alex J. Bellamy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Today, United Nations (UN) peacekeeping stands at another crossroads. With consistently high demands for peacekeepers and an expanding range of mandated tasks, the UN faces the challenge of finding more, and better, peacekeepers. This comes at a time when financial austerity measures are being imposed across much of the world and in a political context where the UN must compete with other international organizations to recruit peacekeepers from what is a relatively limited global pool of relevant capabilities. To meet the challenge, the UN's New Horizon initiative and the General Assembly's Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations (C-34) have called for an “expanding of the pool of available capabilities.” The Providing for Peacekeeping Project was established by the International Peace Institute to inform and assist this endeavor.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
387. Turkey: The PKK and a Kurdish Settlement
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey's Kurdish conflict is becoming more violent, with more than 700 dead in fourteen months, the highest casualties in thirteen years. Prolonged clashes with militants in the south east, kidnappings and attacks on civilians suggest hardliners are gaining the upper hand in the insurgent PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). The government and mainstream media should resist the impulse to call for all out anti-terrorist war and focus instead, together with Kurds, on long-term conflict resolution. There is need to reform oppressive laws that jail legitimate Kurdish politicians and make amends for security forces' excess. The Kurdish movement, including PKK leaders, must abjure terrorist attacks and publicly commit to realistic political goals. Above all, politicians on all sides must legalise the rights most of Turkey's Kurds seek, including mother-language education; an end to discriminatory laws; fair political representation; and more decentralisation. Turkey's Kurds would then have full equality and rights, support for PKK violence would drop, and the government would be better placed to negotiate insurgent disarmament and demobilisation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Communism, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, and Kurdistan
388. Setting Kosovo Free: Remaining Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kosovo has implemented much of the Ahtisaari plan – the blueprint for its democracy, providing substantial rights for Serbs and other minorities – and deserves to be fully independent, but there should be no slippage, and remaining parts of the plan should be honoured. The Pristina government mostly abides by it, and many Serbs south of the Ibar River now accept its authority, obey its laws and take part in political life in a way unimaginable four years ago. These achievements are threatened, however, by the tense Kosovo-Serbia relationship, declining Serb numbers and Pristina's frustration at its inability to extend its sovereignty to the Serb-majority northern areas and to achieve full international recognition. A surge in ethnically-motivated attacks shows peace is fragile. The government should remain committed to the Ahtisaari requirement for minorities. But the plan was not meant to work in isolation and cannot be separated from the overall Kosovo-Serbia relationship. Belgrade needs to earn Pristina's trust and acquiescence for its continued involvement on Kosovo territory, especially the south.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Pristina
389. Mali : pour une action internationale résolue et concertée
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- En l'absence de décisions rapides, fortes et cohérentes aux niveaux régional (Communauté économique des Etats d'Afrique de l'Ouest, Cedeao), continental (Union Africaine, UA) et international (Nations unies) avant la fin de ce mois de septembre, la situation politique, sécuritaire, économique et sociale au Mali se détériorera. Tous les scénarios sont encore ouverts, y compris celui d'un nouveau coup d'Etat militaire et de troubles sociaux dans la capitale, aboutissant à une remise en cause des institutions de transition et à un chaos propice à la propagation de l'extrémisme religieux et de la violence terroriste au Mali et au- delà. Aucun des trois acteurs qui se partagent le pouvoir, le président intérimaire Di oncounda Traoré, le Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra et le chef de l'exjunte, le capitaine Amadou Sanogo, ne dispose d'une légitimité populaire et d'une compétence suffisantes pour éviter une crise plus aiguë. Le pays a urgemment besoin de la mobilisation des meilleures compétences maliennes au-delà des clivages politiques et non d'une bataille de positionnement à la tête d'un Etat qui risque de s'écrouler.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Africa
390. The Management Handbook for UN Field Missions
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis and Adam C. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Why.Is.Management.Important? The UN field mission is a complex beast. From the smallest political mission to the largest peacekeeping operation, it employs a uniquely diverse staff and performs a broad array of tasks in an environment that is sometimes dangerous, often unstable, and always challenging. Resources are scarce and inflexible. Internal regulations and procedures are cumbersome, and, at times, can impede rather than facilitate success. On top of it all, success is often hard to measure or even recognize. Unlike the private sec-tor, success in the field does not come from increased quarterly profits, but rather from a conflict prevented, the perception of a peace dividend, or the renewed optimism of a host population. Unfortunately, UN staff can only contribute to these goals, as so many factors are beyond the mission's control.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, International Organization, United Nations, and Peacekeeping