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1491. Angola's Future

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Angola is no longer at war except in its Cabinda province. This report summarizes the British-Angola Forum 2003 conference which focused on whether there was a peace dividend and what the post-conflict priorities for reconstruction and development should be. The opportunities and challenges are many, but many speakers emphasized how slow post-conflict democratic change is. Key issues examined in the British-Angola Forum's 2002 conference were as pertinent as ever. The confrontation between transparency and sovereignty continues to resonate especially.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1492. Putting 'M' Back in Monetary Policy

Author:
Eric M. Leeper and Jennifer E. Roush
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Money demand and the stock of money have all but disappeared from monetary policy analyses. Remarkably, it is more common for empirical work on monetary policy to include commodity prices than to include money. This paper establishes and explores the empirical fact that whether money enters a model and how it enters matters for inferences about policy impacts. The way money is modeled significantly changes the size of output and inflation effects and the degree of inertia that inflation exhibits following a policy shock. We offer a simple and conventional economic interpretation of these empirical facts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

1493. Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises?

Author:
Carlos Ó. Arteta
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In view of the role of liability dollarization in recent financial crises, whether or not the widespread presence of foreign-currency-denominated deposits and credits in developing-country banking systems leads to greater financial fragility is an open and pressing question. Using a comprehensive dataset on deposit and credit dollarization for a large number of developing and transition economies, I find little evidence that high dollarization heightens the probability of banking crises or currency crashes. Furthermore, while empirical results suggest that banking crises and currency crashes are contractionary, there is no robust evidence that they are more costly in highly dollarized countries than in countries where dollarization is low. This extensive empirical search highlights that macroeconomic and exchange rate policies are far more important than bank dollarization in determining crisis risks and costs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

1494. The Present-Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Suspects

Author:
John H. Rogers and James M. Nason
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Tests of the present-value model of the current account are frequently rejected by the data. Standard explanations rely on the “usual suspects” of non-separable preferences, shocks to fiscal policy and the world real interest rate, and imperfect international capital mobility. We con firm these rejections on post-war Canadian data, then investigate their source by calibrating and simulating alternative versions of a small open economy, real business cycle model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that, although each of the suspects matters in some way, a “canonical” RBC model moves closest to the data when it features exogenous world real interest rate shocks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

1495. Stability and Viability in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
As post-Taliban Afghanistan struggles to build a viable and secure state under President Hamid Karzai, a clear and urgent need exists for the international community to assist Karzai's government in building enduring domestic institutions that support the promotion of democracy, while improving the stability and security of this Asian country. In March 2003, Princeton University's Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) sponsored a colloquium entitled, “Stability and Viability in Afghanistan: Building A Viable And Effective Afghan State,” held in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, which brought together diplomats, government officials, academics, policy experts, and field practitioners to examine international and local best practices relevant for state and security building in Afghanistan—to be considered policy recommendations by Afghans themselves.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

1496. ICAR Newsletter, Volume 13, Number 1

Author:
Dennis J.D. Sandole, Kevin Avruch, Jannie Botes, Sandra I. Cheldelin, Sara Cobb, Daniel Druckman, Ho-Won Jeong, Linda Johnston, Michelle LeBaron, Christopher Mitchell, Daniel Rothbart, Richard Rubenstein, and Wallace Warfield
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:
The Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution is commemorating a number of historic milestones in this academic year. Among the reasons for celebration is that ICAR recently surpassed the 20 year mark since the Center for Conflict Resolution, ICAR's forerunner, opened its doors. Moreover, ICAR's doctoral program in conflict analysis and resolution, in existence since 1988, now counts nearly 30 Ph.D.s on its roll.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, and Peace Studies

1497. Beyond Greed and Grievance: Policy Lessons from Studies in the Political Economy of Armed Conflict

Author:
Heiko Nitzschke and Karen Ballentine
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This policy report provides a synopsis of the key findings from case studies on the political economy of armed intra-state conflicts, commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil wars (EAC W ). These findings offer lessons for improved policies for conflict prevention and resolution. Combatants' incentives for self-enrichment and/ or opportunities for insurgent mobilization created by access to natural and financial resources were neither the primary nor sole cause of the separatist and non-separatist conflicts analyzed. Nevertheless, extensive combatant self-financing complicated and prolonged hostilities, in some cases creating serious impediments to their resolu-tion. In all cases, however, these factors interacted to varying degrees with long-standing socio-economic and political grievances, inter-ethnic disputes, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable systems of governance. Conflict analysis should avoid "resource reductionist" models in favor of comprehensive approaches that not only account for the complex interrelationship between economic and political dynamics, but also incorporate the political economy of both rebellion and state failure. Improved understanding is required of the role that combatant access to resources can play in shaping a permissive opportunity structure for separatist and non-separatist conflicts relative to other socio-political factors. Different resource endowments affect different sorts of conflicts and benefit combatant parties in distinct ways, depending, inter alia, on the mode of exploitation and how proceeds are managed by the state. "Lootable" resources, such as alluvial diamonds and illegal narcotics are more likely to be implicated in non-separatist insurgencies. They prolong conflict by benefiting rebels and conflict-dependent civilians, compromising battle disci-pline, and by multiplying the number of peace spoilers. "Unlootable" resources, such as oil, gas, and deep-shaft mineral deposits tend to be associ-ated with separatist conflicts, which are often caused by ethno-political grievances over inequitable resource revenue-sharing and exclusionary government policies. Given the importance of lootable natural resources and easily captured diaspora remittances in sustaining many of today's armed conflicts, improved international regulatory efforts to curtail these resource flows are both warranted and necessary. Commodity control regimes need to be strengthened and also complemented by more comprehensive efforts that address the financial flows connected with those resources. However, even the most robust resource control regimes are unlikely to have a decisive or even fully positive impact. Where conflicts are motivated by a mix of political, security, ethnic, and economic factors, curtailing resource flows to combatants may weaken their military capacity but not their resolve to continue fighting. In addition, regulatory regimes may have adverse humanitarian effects by increasing civilian predation by rebels or by stifling civilian incomes. When designing and implementing regulatory regimes, policy-makers need to distinguish between those who exploit armed conflict for profit and power and those who participate in war economies to sustain their civilian livelihoods. The offer of "economic peace dividends" may co-opt belligerents into ceasefires or more formal peace processes. Critically, however, economic inducements are unlikely to achieve these results in the absence of a credible military threat and may risk the creation of "negative peace," where justice and sustainability are deeply compromised and the threat of renewed conflict remains high. Policy-makers need to identify and adequately integrate economic incentives of combatants into a wider set of political and strategic inducements for conflict resolution and peace-building. Today's insurgents increasingly engage in illegal economic activities either directly or through links with international criminal networks. However, insurgency groups have not equivocally transformed into mere criminal organizations as they retain- albeit to varying degrees- military and political goals. While improved interdiction and law enforcement are important policy tools, casting rebellion as a criminal rather than a political phenomenon may risk mischaracterizing legitimate grievances, thereby foreclosing opportu-nities for negotiated resolution, and may lend de facto legitimacy to state actors, regardless of their behavior and role in the conflict. Poor economic governance and state weakness are the critical mediating factors between resource abundance and vulnerability to armed conflict; the first engenders popular grievances, the second makes separatist and non-separatist insurgencies politically and militarily feasible. Policy responses need to focus on structural conflict prevention efforts by, inter alia, designing and supporting tools and strategies for more effective, equitable, and accountable systems of resource management, complemented by longer-term strategies of economic diversifica-tion and poverty reduction. Contemporary intra-state conflicts have strong regional and even global linkages. By increasing the number of potential war profiteers and peace-spoilers and multiplying the points of conflict, these broader dimensions not only affect the character and duration of hostilities, but also complicate the prospects for conflict resolution and post-conflict stability. Both conflict analysis and policymaking need to address these regional dimensions by strengthening the economic management capacities of formal regional organi-zations and ad hoc alliances, complementing- and thus strengthening- national and global conflict management strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Political Economy

1498. Conflict Commodities: Addressing the Role of Natural Resources in Conflict

Author:
Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The role that the availability of lucrative natural resources including gem stones, minerals and timber plays in the incidence of violent conflict in several countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, is the subject of significant policy debate and academic research. Indeed, it is generally recognised that the trade in certain commodities has played a role in the continuation of several wars, providing resources to both rebels and governments to finance their military campaigns.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Environment, and War
Political Geography:
America

1499. Post Conflict Governance: From Rubble to Reconstruction

Author:
Ryan J. Watson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
Global debate and media awareness of the complex issues involved with post-conflict governance are at an all-time high. With the reconstruction of the Balkans still leaving much left undone, the United States and much of the international community are seeking to balance continued intervention in Afghanistan with the emerging challenge of rebuilding Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Balkans

1500. Was Failure Avoidable? Learning From Colombia's 1998-2002 Peace Process

Author:
Adam Isacson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Colombians had never seen President Andrés Pastrana as angry or as dejected as he appeared on television the night of Wednesday, February 20, 2002. His effort to end nearly 40 years of violence — a conflict with leftist guerrillas and paramilitary vigilantes that claimed over 3,500 lives in 2001 — had just received a fatal blow. More than three years of frustrating negotiations had come to nothing.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Colombia