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1331. A Long Road to Damascus. Syria and the Peace Negotiations with Israel

Author:
Marwa Daoudy
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
From 1991 to 2000, Syria and Israel, two of the key actors of the Middle-Eastern conflict, entered into extensive peace negotiations. What lessons can be drawn from the process in terms of Syria's objectives, motivations and perceptions, considering that this actor remains largely unknown? Such concerns will be addressed by identifying the major issues at stake: territory, security, and water resources. By analyzing all the obstacles on the road to peace, we will evaluate the potential for a resumption of peace talks in the new regional context. The death of President Hafez al-Asad in June 2000 and the rise to power of his son Bashar, the deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation since the start of the Intifada and Ariel Sharon's election in Israel, the war launched by the United States in Iraq, the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005, and the meeting of the 10th Baath Party Congress in June have all drastically impacted on domestic and regional dynamics. The purpose of the study is to shed new light on Syria's constraints and opportunities, and their impact on her bargaining position.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Damascus

1332. International Investor Influence in the 1994-1995 Mexican Peso Crisis

Author:
Charles W. Parker III
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This essay provides a detailed overview, at a market- and firm- level, of the involvement and influence international portfolio investors had in the development and outcomes of the Mexico Peso Crisis of 1994-1995. It address two problems with the literature that is critical of the role of international investors during the crisis; the lack of specific data of market activity by firms that were engaged in Mexico during the volatile period before and after the December 1994 devaluation, and details on private creditor interactions with government officials in key episodes of the crisis. Through a review of the literature, industry data, and confidential interviews with key governmental and private actors, this essay concludes that there was sizable concentration of international investment firms engaged in Mexico, but claims they instigated or exacerbated the crisis are overblown; global funds rather than emerging market funds were a more likely culprit in Mexican market volatility and only after the devaluation; the role of investment banks as participants has been underestimated and is important in understanding collective action problems in finding a solution to the crisis; and a lack of information and mutual confidence, as well as policy overdependence on foreign capital flows, rather than purported “structural power,” were far more important factors in determining the onset and outcomes of the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Central America and Mexico

1333. Waging Nonviolent Struggle: 20th Century Practice and 21st Century Potential

Author:
Gene Sharp
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
We live in a world of many conflicts, and we have a responsibility to face many of them. Not all conflicts are equal. Some are much more important than others, and in some conflicts the issues at stake are more difficult to resolve in acceptable ways than are those in other conflicts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Peace Studies

1334. Silencing Guns: Local Perspectives on Small Arms and Armed Violence in Rural Pacific Islands Communities

Author:
Emile LeBrun and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
At a time when the funding for weapons reduction and armed conflict prevention work is at an all-time high and still growing, the lack of accessible, standard evaluative tools is becoming more and more conspicuous. Though this partly stems from a debate within the disarmament community as to what the right set of measures should be, it is also a reaction to the practical difficulty—in some cases, outright impossibility—of collecting quantitative data on armed violence, especially in rural areas. Clearly, there is a great need for alternative means of assessing and reporting on the impacts of both small arms availability and misuse, and efforts to reduce those impacts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Island

1335. The Impact of RMA on Conventional Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis

Author:
Manjeet S. Pardesi
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This research aims to theoretically study if deterrence will prevail if and when states with RMA-ed militaries are faced with the prospect of conventional war. To answer this question, this study analyzes the impact of transformation on conventional deterrence in the event of a military standoff for three theoretical scenarios–(1) RMA capable conventional military vs. RMA-incapable conventional military (with the former state being nuclear or non-nuclear and with the latter being non-nuclear), (2) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states non-nuclear), and (3) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states nuclear). The study concludes that the current defense transformation is revolutionary simply because it permits the possibility of a limited conventional armed conflict between two nuclear weapons states (including great powers) and as such attempts to resuscitate the role of conventional military power in international politics. On the other hand, analogous to the nuclear revolution, the possession of RMA capabilities by two non-nuclear belligerents is likely to render large-scale conventional armed conflicts with unlimited military objectives between them unthinkable. However, this study warns that deterrence is weakened when only one state in an adversarial dyad is RMA-capable. Moreover, in any dyad involving RMA-capable states, deterrence is weakened when the RMA-capable state contemplates a strategy of limited aims (political and/or military) vis-à-vis its adversary. This tendency is all the more pronounced when it is contemplating a limited war waged with air power and missile strikes (low-cost, low-risk) than a limited war for territorial gains.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Development, and War

1336. Maritime Disputes In The South China Sea: Strategic And Diplomatic Status Quo

Author:
Ralf Emmers
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Working Paper argues that the maritime disputes over the South China Sea are characterised by a strategic and diplomatic status quo. China does so far not have the necessary power projection to impose naval hegemony in the South China Sea. None of the ASEAN claimants can rely on sufficient naval power or an external military alliance to impose their claims in the Spratly Islands. A similar situation of status quo exists on the diplomatic front. China and the ASEAN countries have been negotiating for years to conclude a code of conduct for the South China Sea. The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea is based on a multilateral dimension as well as on a convergence of views on the need to peacefully manage the dispute. While a step in the right direction, the declaration is only an interim political agreement and it is still to be seen whether the parties will sign a detailed and binding code of conduct for the South China Sea. The Working Paper starts by reviewing the nature of the maritime disputes. It then describes the security environment in the South China Sea by examining the changing strategic conditions of the disputes. Its final section discusses the long diplomatic road toward the 2002 Declaration. The Working Paper concludes that the South China Sea has remained primarily a political rather than a military issue thanks to China's desire to accomodate the Southeast Asian countries and the limited naval capabilities available to the different claimants.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China

1337. The State And Religious Institutions In Muslim Societies

Author:
Riaz Hassan
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Institutional configurations of Islamic societies can be classified into two types, namely, differentiated in social formations–societies in which religion and state occupy different space–and undifferentiated social formations–societies in which religion and state are integrated, i.e. Islamic states. Using survey data from a comparative study of five Muslim societies, this paper examines the level of trust in religious institutions in these two types of Muslim social formations. The evidence reveals that the level of trust in religious institutions tends to be significantly higher in differentiated Muslim social formations. The paper discusses the possible sociological implications of this finding for Muslim societies and proposes an explanatory model to account for the finding. It concludes that an Islamic state may not always be in the best interests of Islamic institutions and the religious elite. The empirical evidence also suggests that the trust in religious institutions in Muslim societies is positively associated with trust in key institutions of the state. Implications of this finding are also discussed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Government, and Religion

1338. Towards Better Peace Processes: A Comparative Study Of Attempts To Broker Peace With MNLF And GAM

Author:
S.P. Harish
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
States increasingly find themselves in a situation where they are unable to suppress an internal insurgency entirely without initiating a peace process with the rebel organisation. This is especially true for countries like Indonesia and Philippines who have been battling domestic conflicts for many decades. This paper compares attempts made to attain peace between the Government of Philippines (GRP) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) as well as between the Government of Indonesia (GOI) and Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM). In doing so, it endeavors to identify elements that could improve peace processes. The findings of this paper will address the strengths and limitations of a mediator in a peace process, the role of reintegration of armed rebels into mainstream society, how peace zones can be made more effective as well as the function of human rights and symbols in a peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Philippines and Australia/Pacific

1339. Maritime Terrorism In Southeast Asia: A Risk Assessment

Author:
Catherine Zara Raymond
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This article seeks to investigate the extent of the threat posed by maritime terrorism to commercial ports and shipping in Southeast Asia. It will focus in particular on the threat from the terrorist groups located in Indonesia and the Philippines and the vulnerability of vessels passing through Southeast Asia's strategic sea-lanes
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

1340. Pugwash Newsletter:To the Pugwash Community

Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
Following his death on 31 August 2005 at the age of 96, Sir Joseph Rotblat was remembered and honored at memorial events around the world. From Moscow to Berlin, and Beijing to Washington, DC, Jo's spirit was manifestly with us as the Pugwash community gathered to pay tribute to his life's work to eliminate nuclear weapons and uphold the principle of science serving the good of all humanity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Beijing, Moscow, and Berlin