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1292. Managing ethnic divisions in the Philippines and Malaysia
- Author:
- Peter Kreuzer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
- Abstract:
- Another lesson of history may be lost, a lesson that can teach not only Malaysians but others as well about the conduct of Government, the behaviour of politicians, and the discipline required in a democracy in order to prevent a multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-lingual and multicultural country from going up in flames and destroying itself.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Post Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia, Asia, and Philippines
1293. The Impact of Spoilers on Peace Processes and Peacebuilding
- Author:
- Edward Newman and Oliver Richmond
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Many ceasefires and peace agreements in civil wars are initially unsuccessful and give way to renewed violence. In other cases, peace processes have become interminably protracted: lengthy and circular negotiations in which concessions are rare and even if agreements are reached they falter at the implementation phase. State-building and peacebuilding processes are also often subject to outbreaks of violence, as recent experience in Afghanistan, Haiti, Iraq, Kosovo and East Timor illustrate. Given the huge material and human costs of a failed peace process, the consolidation of conflict settlement and dealing with threats to peacebuilding are critical challenges for the international community. After a history of painful experience in cases such as Angola and Bosnia, the importance of this was finally addressed in December 2005 by the UN Security Council in Resolution 1645 which calls for the creation of a UN Peacebuilding Commission. Th is new organ is expected to improve coordination amongst, and effectiveness of, all agencies involved in peacebuilding, peacekeeping, disarmament and demobilization, development, human rights issues, and the administration of former conflict zones.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Kosovo
1294. Scenarios for the Insurgency in Iraq
- Author:
- Alan Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Three workshops explored hundreds of forces and factors relevant to insurgency outcomes and focused on key drivers to develop five alternative scenarios. These scenarios reflected the participants' perception that positive outcomes would be hard to achieve, and negative outcomes could be foreseen much more easily. The workshops' principal finding is that U.S. goals for Iraq and the region should be reexamined and scaled back. The administration's expressed goal of “an Iraq that is peaceful, united, stable, democratic, and secure, where Iraqis have the institutions and resources they need to govern themselves justly and provide security for their country” is possible only in the very long term. Avoidance of disaster and maintenance of some modicum of political stability in Iraq are more realistic goals—but even these will be hard to achieve without new strategies and actions. The scenarios include recommended adjustments to U.S. goals and strategies to achieve reduced expectations. Unfortunately, the United States is now in a position to influence but not to control outcomes; it will have to engage and enlist the cooperation of Iraq's neighbors to attain success. This report broadly outlines the strategies that appear best suited to the current situation and the unfolding futures the participants envisioned.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
1295. Resolving the Pakistan- Afghanistan Stalemate
- Author:
- Abubakar Siddique and Barnett R. Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Taliban and al Qaeda insurgencies today are equally active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nationalist insurgency in Pakistani Baluchistan, which Pakistani leaders assert receives support from Indian agents in Afghanistan, also aggravates relations between the two countries. The challenges of violent insurgency require both countries to address their relationship, particularly as it affects the border areas. Formation of such a policy is essential to the vital interests of the United States, NATO, and the international community, which has committed itself to the effort in Afghanistan through UN Security Council resolutions and other measures Afghanistan and Pakistan have had largely antagonistic relations under all governments but the Taliban since Pakistan was created as part of the partition of India in 1947. Some elements of friction were also inherited from conflicts between Afghanistan and India when it was under British imperial rule. Afghanistan's governments, including that of the Taliban, have never recognized the Durand Line between the two countries as an international border and have made claims on the Pashtun and Baluch regions of Pakistan. Today 's cross-border insurgencies, with their sanctuaries and support networks in Pakistan, are nurtured by the same sources as previous conflicts, as well as global Islamist movements. Arrangements to secure the frontier of the British Empire in the nineteenth century by isolating Afghanistan as a buffer state do not work for a twenty-first-century borderland integrated into networks of global conflict. The United States and other external powers that seek to support the new order in Afghanistan and stabilize both Pakistan and Afghanistan should encourage a multidimensional process of dialogue and peacebuilding focused on the problems of the border region. Pressure may also be needed to convince some actors to engage seriously in such a process, but pressure alone will not succeed. A process should work toward reforms in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, leading to their integration into Pakistani national politics and administration; the recognition by Afghanistan of the international border; assured access by Afghanistan to Pakistani ports and transit facilities; the maintenance by both countries of open borders for trade, investment, and cultural relations; agreement by both countries and by India to keep the India-Pakistan dispute out of Afghanistan 's bilateral relations with both; and agreements on both sides to cease supporting or harboring violent opposition movements against the other. The United States, NATO, and the UN must agree to send a common message to Islamabad: that the persistence of Taliban havens in Pakistan is a threat to international peace and security that Pakistan must address immediately. They also must agree to urge Afghanistan and India to do all in their power to encourage Pakistan to make difficult decisions by addressing sources of Pakistani insecurity, including issues relating to the border region and Kashmir. They should actively promote this process and act as guarantors and funders of any agreements that result from it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, India, Taliban, and Kashmir
1296. Morocco: Betting on a Truth and Reconciliation Commission
- Author:
- Pierre Hazan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Facing the Atlantic and Mediterranean, just nine miles from the Spanish coast, Morocco is essential for stability in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and American interests in these regions. The United States and the European Union fully recognize its strategic importance. Its proximity, large diaspora, and extensive trade with Europe place it at the top of the EU's Mediterranean strategy agenda. The United States has designated Morocco a major non-NATO ally; it also was one of the first Arab countries to sign a free-trade agreement with the United States. The Kingdom of Morocco is facing four challenges: weak economic growth; a social crisis resulting from social inequalities, with 20 percent of the population in absolute poverty and 57 percent illiterate; lack of trust in the governing institutions because of the high level of corruption; and an unstable regional and international environment. These factors strengthen the appeal of various Islamist movements, from moderate to more radical groups such as the authors of the deadly bombings in Casablanca in 2003 and Madrid in 2004. Moreover, the conflict over the Western Sahara places Morocco's and Algeria's armies, the two most powerful in North Africa, toe to toe. Unlike Tunisia and Algeria, since the end of the Cold War Morocco has taken steps toward political liberalization, and its pace has accelerated since Mohammed VI came to the throne in 1999. As part of the process of liberalization, the king established a truth and reconciliation commission (TRC) in January 2004. This is one of very few cases in which a TRC was created without a regime change. Thousands of victims tortured during the reign of King Mohammed's father, King Hassan II, have been given the opportunity to voice their sufferings publicly and have been promised financial compensation. Such outcomes are unprecedented in a region known for its culture of impunity. Morocco is the first Arab Islamic society to establish a TRC. Its experience shows that political factors play a primary role in the functioning of such a body, while religious and cultural factors are of secondary importance. Although the Moroccan TRC is not an exportable model, it could inspire other majority Muslim societies, such as Afghanistan and Lebanon, which are envisaging or might set up TRCs to confront crimes of past regimes. Some security experts hoped the TRC would be effective in the “soft war” against terrorism by winning the hearts and minds of the population. The actual experience in Morocco shows the limits of this approach. The tension is too strong between the perceived requirements of the antiterrorist struggle and a process to establish accountability for past crimes and advance democratization. In the final analysis, the “war against terrorism” has limited the TRC's impact in Morocco. The report of the Moroccan TRC, published in early 2006, recommended diminution of executive powers, strengthening of parliament, and real independence for the judicial branch. The king and the political parties must decide in the coming years if they will permit the transformation of the “executive monarchy” of Morocco into a parliamentary monarchy. This decision will affect the stability of the kingdom, North Africa, and, to a lesser extent, Europe and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Algeria, Spain, North Africa, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia
1297. The United Nations and Western Sahara: A Never-ending Affair
- Author:
- Anna Theofilopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This study examines the efforts of the United Nations (UN) to resolve the dispute over Western Sahara from August 1988, when Secretary-general Pérez de Cuellar submitted the settlement proposals to the two parties—the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario—until June 2004, when James A. Baker III, the secretary-general's personal envoy on Western Sahara, resigned. The settlement proposals were to lead to the holding of a referendum on self-determination for the people of Western Sahara, offering a choice between integration with Morocco or independence. A crucial element in the implementation of the plan was the identification of voters for the referendum, which both sides considered the key to producing an outcome in their favor. The Polisario had a restricted view, expecting the 1974 Spanish census of the territory to be the framework for the identification, while Morocco took an expansive view by trying to include tens of thousands of applicants of Saharan origin now living in Morocco. Both parties found reasons to interrupt the identification process. Throughout the process, the UN tried to break the impasses created by the parties through technical solutions that addressed the problem at hand without addressing the underlying political problem, which was the determination by both sides to win the referendum. After six years of trying to move forward the identification process, Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked James Baker to become his personal envoy in order to steer the parties toward a political solution and away from the “winner-take-all” approach of the referendum. However, because both parties insisted that they wanted to proceed with the plan, Baker helped them negotiate the Houston Agreements, which allowed for the completion of the identification process. In September 2000, seeing that the referendum was not likely to work in its favor, Morocco offered to discuss a political solution aiming at autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. The Polisario, which until the conclusion of the identification had been interested in meeting directly with Morocco, now believed that it could win the referendum and therefore said it would talk only about the settlement plan. After two more years of trying to get the parties to agree to a political solution, Baker informed the Security Council that a consensual approach would not work and requested that the Council ask the parties to choose one of four options, none of which would require the parties' consent, to resolve the conflict. The Security Council was unable to agree on any of the four options and asked Baker to prepare another political proposal that would include self-determination for the people of Western Sahara. Baker's final attempt was the Peace Plan for Self- Determination of the People of Western Sahara, which provided for a period of autonomy followed by a referendum on self-determination. Morocco rejected the plan and refused to accept a referendum in which the independence of Western Sahara would even appear as an option. The Security Council, while having expressed support for Baker's efforts in its resolutions, proved unwilling to ask the parties to make the difficult decisions required to solve the conflict. When Morocco rejected the peace plan, the Council, despite having unanimously supported it, did nothing. The study concludes that Western Sahara will remain on the UN agenda for many years to come and offers a number of lessons learned from this failed mediation effort.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Morocco
1298. The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict
- Author:
- Marius Vahl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
1299. Is Humanitarianism Part of the Problem? Nine Theses
- Author:
- Roberto Belloni
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The word “humanitarianism” describes the worldview, aspirations, professional vocabularies, and actions affirming the common dignity of humankind regardless of differences in race, gender, religion, national belonging, political creed, or any other accident of birth or contextual circumstance. The growing influence of human rights norms in international politics explains why humanitarianism has affirmed itself as a global ideology. While up to the end of the Cold War states, international organizations and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) had to go to great lengths to justify their interference in the domestic affairs of other states, today the opposite is the case. States are under a great deal of pressure to explain why they do not want to intervene, either militarily, politically, or economically to promote and protect human rights. The assumption has turned in favor of such intervention, not against it. Humanitarianism seems on its way to radically changing the Westphalian international order.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
1300. Pakistan and the Crescent of Crisis
- Author:
- Stephen P. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Situated at the intersection of many American and European concerns, Pakistan has been linked to terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and Islamic extremism; it is politically unstable and economically problematic, and has recently undergone a series of crises, some with nuclear overtones, with India. Pakistan is also located at a geostrategic crossroad, bound to India by geography, culture, and chronic enmity; a self-proclaimed Islamic state with many ties to the Muslim and Arab worlds; long-standing ambitions in Afghanistan and We stand Central Asia, and en during military and strategic ties to China and North Korea.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, America, Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, and India