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501. Stopping Guinea's Slide

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Guinea risks becoming West Africa's next failed state. Its economy is faltering, the government has nearly ceased to provide services, and in 2004, there were isolated uprisings in at least eight towns and cities in all regions of the country. Getting it wrong in Guinea now could have disastrous consequences. Getting it right will require a greater engagement by both the Guinean population and the diplomatic and donor communities, including a focus much more on reforming institutions than on the immediate personnel issues involved in the succession to the ailing and dictatorial president, Lansana Conté.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Guinea

502. Discussion Paper on the High Level Panel on Threats Challenges and Change

Author:
Shepard Forman
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
There is by now ample evidence of substantial gaps in the planning, financing and implementation capacities for the critical civilian components of complex missions. While substantial improvements have been made over the years in the international community's peacebuilding capacities, concepts, policies and practice continue to evolve within the UN system, including the international financial institutions, and among bilateral donors. In proposing the creation of a Peacebuilding Commission and related Peacebuilding Support Office in the Secretariat, the High Level Panel is seeking to build on and consolidate these advances in order to strengthen national as well as the UN's and international community's shared capacity to prevent state failure and more effectively manage post ‐ conflict peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

503. How To Saving APEC

Author:
Dr. Malcolm Cook and Allen Gyngell
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the Problem? The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, APEC, has served Australian interests very well since its establishment in 1989, but it has lost its early momentum and is confused about its purposes. It faces competition from the new East Asian Summit. In 2007, Australia will chair APEC and host its 21 leaders in Sydney. How can we ensure that APEC is in good shape for that meeting and that it continues to serve the interests of the Asia Pacific region?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

504. Assessing Palestinian Security Reform

Author:
Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Palestinian security reform was high on the agenda during Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's recent visit to Ramallah. A spike in armed clashes, crime, and demonstrations in the territories has highlighted the issue of law and order among the Palestinian people, who are increasingly concerned about their daily security. On June 14, Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Ahmed Qurei threatened to suspend the work of the cabinet "if the security forces fail to put an end to the trespasses and anarchy."
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

505. Farewell to Conscription? The Case of Denmark

Author:
Pertti Joenniemi
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This contribution probes the essence of Denmark as a political project by using conscription as an inroad and employing it as a lens that provides insight into the way some of the key constitutive relationships underpinning Denmark have been unfolding over time. Conscription is approached by focusing on its discursive features, those furnishing it with – or depriving it of – ideational power.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

506. Transforming U.S. Intelligence

Author:
Jennifer E. Sims and Burton Gerber
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Georgetown University Press
Abstract:
Intelligence failures prior to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the “missing” weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq have reminded Americans that good intelligence is crucial for national security. Indeed, the report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States led quickly to the enactment of legislation restructuring the intelligence community, underscoring both the capacity of American citizens to change their most secretive governmental institutions and their appreciation of the importance of the intelligence mission. The families of the victims of September 11 recognized their opportunity to reform the U.S. government's intelligence service and, remarkably, they did so. At the end of 2004 President George W. Bush signed into law the first strategically significant changes in the American intelligence system since it was created at the end of World War II.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States

507. Measuring Economic Disadvantage During Childhood: A Group-Based Modeling Approach

Author:
Mary Clare Lennon, Robert L. Wagmiller, Philip M. Alberti, and J. Lawrence Aber
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Recent research suggest that child well-being and subsequent status attainment are influenced not only by the overall magnitude of exposure to family economic disadvantage during childhood, but also by the age of exposure and significant changes in family economic circumstances. Unfortunately, traditional measures of children's economic deprivation – such as, permanent and transitory income, persistent or cumulative poverty, and the number and length of poverty spells – fail to differentiate between exposure to disadvantage at different stages in childhood and largely ignore how family economic circumstances are changing over time. In this paper we propose a new method for assessing economic disadvantage during childhood that captures both children's overall levels of exposure to economic disadvantage and their patterns of exposure. This new method, which takes advantage of recent advances in finite mixture modeling, uses a longitudinal latent class model to classify children into a limited number of groups with similar histories of exposure to family economic disadvantage. Using this new methodology, group membership can be related to both family background characteristics and achievement in childhood and early adulthood, making it possible both to assess how family characteristics affect patterns of exposure to disadvantage during childhood and directly test alternative theories about the effect of different patterns of exposure on achievement. In this paper the relationship between background factors – such as race, parental education, and family structure – and group membership is investigated, as is the association between group membership and achievement in early adulthood. The use of this technique is demonstrated using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics

508. The Proliferation Security Initiative

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a global initiative aimed at stopping shipments of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), their delivery systems, and related materials worldwide, announced by President Bush, May 31, 2003. It stems from the National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction issued in December 2002. That strategy recognizes the need for more robust tools to defeat the proliferation of WMD around the world, and specifically identifies interdiction as an area where greater focus will be placed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

509. Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge Nuclear Devastation

Author:
Lynn Eden
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Whole World on Fire is about a puzzle that is morbid, arcane, and consequential. Morbid, because it involves the devastation caused by nuclear weapons. Arcane, because it involves secret and obscure calculations by a government bureaucracy tucked away deep within U.S. military intelligence. And consequential, because it involves decisions at the highest level of government about using nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States

510. Counter-Terrorism: A Game Theoretic Analysis

Author:
Daniel G. Arce M. and Todd Sandler
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
This paper establishes the prevalence of deterrence over preemption when targeted governments can choose between either policy or employ both. There is a similar proclivity to favor defensive counterterrorist measures over proactive policies. Unfortunately, this predisposition results in an equilibrium with socially inferior payoffs when compared with proactive responses. Proactive policies tend to provide purely public benefits to all potential targets and are usually undersupplied, whereas defensive policies tend to yield a strong share of provider-specific benefits and are often oversupplied. When terrorists direct a disproportionate number of attacks at one government, its reliance on defensive measures can disappear. Ironically, terrorists' can assist governments in addressing coordination dilemmas associated with some antiterrorist policies by targeting some countries more often than others.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, and Terrorism