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442. South Korea's Election: What to Expect from President Lee
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 19 December 2007, South Koreans elected Lee Myung-bak as their president. Barring sensational developments in a scandal investigation that still dogs him, Lee, the candidate of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP or “Hannaradang”) will be inaugurated on 25 February 2008 to replace Roh Moo-hyun, who is limited by the constitution to a single five-year term. A former top executive of the Hyundai conglomerate, he has pledged to be an “economic president who will revive the economy with his practical business experience”. Although he has ideological differences with his liberal predecessor, he is unlikely to make dramatic changes in foreign or security policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
443. Nepal: Peace Postponed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nepal's progress toward lasting peace is seriously but not yet irreparably faltering. A further postponement of constituent assembly (CA) elections reflected the weak implementation of the November 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and lack of will to follow the agreed process. Leaders have now vowed to forge a new consensus and agreed to hold the elections by mid-April 2008 but have yet to address the problems that led to past postponements. Suspicions among the parties – especially between Nepali Congress (NC), which dominates the government, and the Maoists, who remain outside – are echoed in ebbing public confidence: whatever promises they hear, most voters believe the politicians prefer to stay in power rather than face the electorate. All parties urgently need to inject new momentum into the peace process and take steps to win back trust and earn legitimacy. The international community can support them in this but must also maintain
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Nepal
444. Georgia: Sliding towards Authoritarianism?
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The government's repressive and disproportionate response to peaceful protests in November 2007 shocked Western capitals, which had viewed Georgia as a beacon of democracy in a region of illiberal regimes. Since the Rose Revolution, however, President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration has become increasingly intolerant of dissent as it has sought to reform inefficient post-Soviet institutions, stimulate a deeply dysfunctional economy, regain the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and deal with its meddling Russian neighbour. In an attempt to restore his democratic credentials, Saakashvili has called an early presidential election for 5 January 2008, which he is expected to win, but a free and fair election will not be enough to repair the damage. The West should press the government to abandon its increasingly authoritarian behaviour, engage in a genuine dialogue with political opponents and make the ongoing reform process transparent and accountable.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Corruption, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia
445. Nigeria's Elections: Avoiding a Political Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nigeria's democracy faces a crucial test. Presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections scheduled for 14 and 21 April 2007 are not a routine quadrennial ritual. Success would offer the country the first opportunity to achieve a genuine constitutional succession from one civilian administration to another since independence in 1960, thus consolidating democracy. Failure could provoke violent rejection of the results by wide sections of the populace, denial of legitimacy and authority to the new government, intensification of the insurgency in the Niger Delta and its possible extension to other areas, with potential for wider West African destabilisation. The preparatory phases have indicated failings in terms of basic fairness for the opposition, transparency and respect for the rule of law. Unless stakeholders make urgent efforts to rescue the credibility of the process, Nigeria's already serious internal instability could be fatally aggravated.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
446. Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Armenia and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, even though the framework for a fair settlement has been on the table since 2005. A comprehensive peace agreement before presidential elections in both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but the two sides still can and should agree before the polls to a document on basic principles, which if necessary clearly indicates the points that are still in dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while they engage in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there is a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years. By about 2012, after which its oil revenue is expected to begin to decline, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution. The international community needs to lose its complacency and do more to encourage the leaderships to prepare their societies for compromise and peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
447. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
448. Afghanistan's Endangered Compact
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the growing insurgency is attracting increasing attention, long-term efforts to build the solid governmental institutions a stable Afghanistan requires are faltering. Following conclusion of the Bonn process, which created the country's elected bodies, the Afghan government and the international community committed at the London Conference (31 January-1 February 2006) to the Afghanistan Compact, which identified “three critical and interdependent areas or pillars of activity” over five years: security; governance, rule of law and human rights; and social and economic development. The government signed on to realizing a “shared vision of the future” for a “stable and prosperous Afghanistan”, while over 60 nations and international institutions promised to provide the necessary resources and support. A year on, even those most closely associated with the process admit that the Compact has yet to have much impact. Afghans and internationals alike still need to demonstrate the political will to undertake deep-rooted institutional changes if the goals of this shared vision are to be met.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and London
449. Somalia: The Tough Part Is Ahead
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Somalia's Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically than they rose. In little more than a week in December 2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive. On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia's woes. There is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al- Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threaten guerrilla war. Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted as a genuine government of national unity but the signs of its willingness are discouraging. Sustained international pressure is needed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Taliban, Ethiopia, and Somalia
450. Bolivia's Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will complete a year in office on 22 January amid rising civil unrest. His government and its opponents are locked in confrontation over institutional reforms that would rewrite the constitution, end an inequitable land tenure system and return economic power to the state. Extremists are coming to the fore in both camps in a crisis that differs from previous ones because the stakes involve a proposal for a very different national model that the traditional elites see as a fundamental threat to their survival. Unless menacing rhetoric ends and dialogue, mediation and compromise begin immediately, widespread violence may result in 2007.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America and Bolivia