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371. Thailand: Political Turmoil and the Southern Insurgency

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The government of Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is struggling for political survival and has handed the military full responsibility for tackling the violent insurgency in the Muslim-dominated Deep South, which has claimed more than 3,000 lives in the past four years. The military has restructured its operations and has made headway in reducing the number of militant attacks, but temporary military advances, though welcome, do nothing to defuse the underlying grievances of the Malay Muslim minority. For that to happen, the otherwise preoccupied government needs to find the will and energy to undertake a serious policy initiative.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Government, and Islam
Political Geography:
Asia and Thailand

372. REFORMING HAITI'S SECURITY SECTOR

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Operations led by the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSTAH) largely disbanded armed gangs in the slums of Haiti's cities in early 2007, but security and stability are far from consolidated. The failure to provide an immediate, visible peace dividend once the gangs' hold was broken was a lost opportunity the still fragile country could ill afford. Now new threats are appearing. Serious crime persists, especially kidnapping and drug trafficking, and in the absence of a sufficiently large and fully operational police force and functioning justice and penitentiary systems, it threatens to undermine political progress. This was evidenced by the fall of Prime Minister Jacques-Edouard Alexis's government following April 2008 protests and riots against high living costs. Security sector reform (SSR) is essential to stabilisation but has been plagued by serious institutional weaknesses.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

373. Côte D'ivoire : Garantir Un Processus Électoral Crédible

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La Côte d'Ivoire reste sur la voie de la paix un an après la désignation du chef de l'ex-rébellion des Forces nouvelles (FN) Guillaume Soro au poste de Premier ministre par son adversaire d'alors, le président Laurent Gbagbo, mais on ne peut nullement exclure un retour à la violence. Tous les efforts doivent viser à créer les conditions politiques et sécuritaires pour des élections présidentielles et législatives qui, pour la première fois depuis le début du long proc essus de paix ivoirien, paraissent envisageables en moins d'un an. La convoitise du fauteuil présidentiel, pour lequel certains acteurs semblent prêts à tout, combinée à la présence de groupes armés et à l'impunité qui a pros péré au cours des dernières années, constituent un environnement potentiellement explosif. Le président du Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, facilitateur et arbitre du processus de paix, ainsi que le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, doivent assumer leurs responsabilités pour préserver ce pays clé d'Afrique de l'ouest d'une grave rechute.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Politics
Political Geography:
France

374. Restoring Democracy in Bangladesh - Asia Report N°151

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bangladesh is under military rule again for the third time in as many decades. Although the caretaker government (CTG) insists its plans to stamp out corruption and hold general elections by December 2008 are on track, its achievements have been patchy, and relations with the major political parties are acrimonious. Efforts to sideline the two prime ministers of the post-1990 democratic period have faltered (though bot h are in jail), and the government has become bogged down in its attempts to clean up corruption and reshape democratic politics. Even if elections are held on schedule, there is no guarantee reforms will be sustainable. If they are delayed, the risk of confrontation between the parties and the army-backed government will grow. There is an urgent need for all sides to negotiate a peaceful and sustainable return to democracy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and Asia

375. Radicalisation in Danish prisons

Author:
Jon A. Olsen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The particularly polarizing environment in prisons creates an increased risk of religious radicalisation, especially among young people with a newly formed religious identity. Prison inmates iare used to dividing the world into separate groups and cementing their identity by rhetorically dissociating themselves from other groups of inmates. The risk of radicalisation is increased when this world view is applied to religious identity formation. Therefore, it is important that there is a good and stabile representation of imams in prisons who can convey an inclusive understanding of religion to the inmates so that they do not use their religion to dissociate themselves from the surrounding society. A noticeable presence of an imam in a prison also makes it harder for other inmates with a radical religious world view to assume an authoritative role in relation to the young converts. This requires an increased focus on the issue as well as a co-ordinated effort. This brief looks at radicalisation in prisons and how it can be dealt with.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism

376. Structural Stability: On the Prerequisites of Nonviolent Conflict Management

Author:
Andreas Mehler, Lena Giesbert, Jenny Kuhlmann, Christian von Soest, and Ulf Engel
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The concept of “structural stability” has been gaining prominence in development policy circles. In the EU's and the OECD Development Assistance Committee's (OECD DAC) understanding, it describes the ability of societies to handle intra-societal conflict without resorting to violence. This study investigates the preconditions of structural stability and tests their mutual interconnections. Seven dimensions are analyzed: (1) long-term economic growth, (2) environmental security, (3) social equality, (4) governmental effectiveness, (5) democracy, (6) rule of law, and (7) inclusion of identity groups. The postulated mutual enhancement of the seven dimensions is plausible but cannot be proven. The most significant positive relationship appears between “democracy” and “rule of law,” respectively, on the one hand and the dependent variable “violence/ human security” on the other hand. This points to the usefulness of the political concept of structural stability to promote development policy agendas in this area at least. Applications that reach beyond these initial findings will, however, require further research.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and International Political Economy

377. Do Qualitative Data Help in Addressing Central American Violence? Research Note on Data Collection

Author:
Anika Oettler
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Taking as its point of departure debates on the value of criminal statistics and victimization surveys, this article explores the methodological challenge of an alternative approach to Central American violence(s). How can we collect qualitative data that help address the social construction of (in) security? The research project “Public Spaces and Violence in Central America” used multiple data sources, including guided interviews and pupils' essays. Drawing on research experience in Nicaragua, this paper asks, How can we collect data that reveal life world experiences as well as hegemonic and counter-discourses on violence? Why is it crucial to keep a research diary? What is a “failed” or a “good” interview? This article argues for a research design based on theoretical considerations, impulsiveness and, most notably, constant self-reflection.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Civil Society
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

378. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rio ting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

379. A Security and Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A continuing leitmotif of the Six Party Talks—among the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea—is the prospect that a resolution of the nuclear question could set the stage for more institutionalized and enduring multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. The Joint Statement of September 19, 2005, which outlined the principles governing subsequent negotiations, referenced new “ways and means for promoting security cooperation in northeast Asia,” and the February 13, 2007 Joint Statement created a Working Group on a Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

380. Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria