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341. Preventing Violent Conflict

Author:
Lawrence Woocher
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
New wars will continue to erupt unabated if greater and smarter efforts are not made to prevent them. Current dangers stem from factors such as the rise of unstable regimes, global economic turbulence, climate change, and the shift in global power distribution. Preventing relapse after wars end is insufficient to prevent most new conflicts, because post-conflict recurrences constitute only a minority of all conflict outbreaks. A wide range of governments—including the United States—and many intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations have made commitments to take serious efforts to prevent violent conflicts. In most respects, these commitments represent a more than adequate normative foundation and a supportive political environment for the development of more robust and effective conflict prevention strategies. Normative and political progress has not been fully matched with development of institutional capacities in governments and international organizations. Expanded conflict prevention capacities will not necessarily require new offices or institutions, but they will require focused attention, resources, and a process to spur action in response to warning signs. The knowledge required to prioritize and target prevention strategies is fairly well developed. More knowledge is needed to help move beyond a description of the conflict prevention toolbox to using these tools as part of empirically grounded prevention strategies. Advancing the conflict prevention agenda will require navigating a series of challenges, including the rapidly changing context in which prevention strategies are applied, a set of difficult political and institutional factors that militate against vigorous preventive action, and the changing role of the United States in the global system. The first step toward meeting the challenges is to make prevention a “must do” priority—on equal par with resolving active conflicts and rebuilding post-conflict states. Other steps include monitoring implementation of existing political commitments to conflict prevention and developing new political strategies to regularize the practice of prevention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and War

342. Understanding Local Context: The Use of Assessment Tools for Conflict-Affected and Fragile States

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
On June 11 and 12, 2009, the International Peace Institute (IPI) convened an experts' workshop as part of an ongoing project called Understanding Local Context. The project aims to improve understanding of how international actors grapple with local context and dynamics in the countries where they work.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
United Nations

343. Managing Complexity: Political and Managerial Challenges in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Adam Smith, editor and Caty Clement, editor
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
“Overstretched,” “underresourced,” and “overmatched” are terms commonly used to describe UN peacekeeping. The first is a result of the vast number of conflicts the Security Council has chosen to address with peace operations. The second is due to a lack of available specialized equipment, highly trained personnel, and funds—a constraint compounded by global recession. The final descriptor, “overmatched,” is, at least partly, a consequence of the challenging, complex environment in which the UN operates. The multiplicity of actors involved, the unpredictability of the environment, and the enormous obstacles to sustainable peace all suggest a complexity through which the UN—a large bureaucracy dependent on the will and capacity of its member states—is often unprepared to navigate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, and United Nations

344. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action

Author:
Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since taking office, the Obama administration has repeatedly affirmed its intent to prevent potential future international crises from becoming the source of costly new U.S. military commitments. In one of the earliest foreign policy pronouncements of the new administration, Vice President Joseph R. Biden declared: “We'll strive to act preventively, not preemptively, to avoid whenever possible or wherever possible the choice of last resort between the risks of war and the dangers of inaction. We'll draw upon all the elements of our power—military and diplomatic; intelligence and law enforcement; economic and cultural—to stop crises from occurring before they are in front of us.” Not long afterward, General James L. Jones, in his first speech as national security adviser, echoed much the same objective: “We need to be able to anticipate the kind of operations that we should be thinking about six months to a year ahead of time in different parts of the world to bring the necessary elements of national and international power to bear to prevent future Iraqs and future Afghanistans.” And in a major speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in August 2009, President Barack Obama also declared that “one of the best ways to lead our troops wisely is to prevent the conflicts that cost American blood and treasure tomorrow.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

345. Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
What is the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics? The scholarly debate pits proliferation optimists, who claim that “more may be better,” against proliferation pessimists, who argue that “more will be worse.” These scholars focus on the aggregate effects of nuclear proliferation, but never explicitly consider the differential effects of the spread of nuclear weapons. In other words, they do not examine whether nuclear proliferation may threaten some states more than others. I propose a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. I argue that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state's ability to project military power. The spread of nuclear weapons is worse for states that have the ability to project conventional military power over a potential nuclear weapon state primarily because nuclear proliferation constrains their conventional military freedom of action. On the other hand, nuclear proliferation is less threatening to, and can sometimes even improve the strategic environment of, states that lack the ability to project power over a potential nuclear weapon state, because the spread of nuclear weapons disproportionately constrains other, more powerful states. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs

346. Strategies for Acquiring Foreign Nuclear Assistance in the Middle East: Lessons from the United Arab Emirates

Author:
Bryan Early
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The path to acquiring a peaceful civilian nuclear program is fraught with challenges for countries in the Middle East. Given Israel's proactive policies in preventing the proliferation of its neighbors and nuclear supplier states' consternation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region, Arab states face a number of unique obstacles in acquiring foreign nuclear assistance. Yet as the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) recent success in courting the assistance of a number of nuclear supplier states demonstrates, these obstacles are not insurmountable. This piece explores the UAE's strategies in obtaining foreign nuclear assistance to uncover the generalizable insights that may be of use to other Middle Eastern countries seeking to develop peaceful nuclear programs.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

347. The Defense Monitor, Volume XXXVIII - October/November/December 2009

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Last July, a majority of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), led by Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., tried to reverse Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' decision to stop production of the F-22. After Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the White House lobbied long and hard against the emissaries from Lockheed, the F-22 lost in a somewhat lopsided vote of 58 to 40. Game over. Right?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States

348. The Defense Monitor, Volume XXXVIII - July/August/September 2009

Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The international Global Zero Commission, a group of political and military leaders from the United States, Russia and other key countries, held an intensive two-day meeting in Washington, D.C. on June 28-29, 2009 - where they presented a practical and comprehensive plan calling for the phased and verified elimination of all nuclear weapons over the next 20 years, and briefed senior Obama administration officials on their recommendations in advance of the July 6-8 Moscow Summit.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, and Moscow

349. Colleagues for the America's Seminar with General Douglas Fraser, USAF

Author:
Col Jay Cope
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Based on 5 busy months as commander, U.S. Southern Command, including visits to eight countries, General Douglas Fraser shared his impressions of opportunities and challenges in Central and South America and the Caribbean. He set the stage for his emphasis on cooperation by discussing geographical, economic, cultural, and military-to-military linkages between the United States and its southern neighbors, citing numerous examples of collaboration, particularly among the armed forces.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, America, Latin America, and Caribbean

350. Implications of a Comprehensive or Integrated Approach for Training in United Nations and African Union Peace Operations

Author:
Cedric De Coning
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The mixed findings of a number of recent peacekeeping, humanitarian and peacebuilding evaluation reports and related research, and the poor sustainability of peacebuilding activities undertaken to date, have led to a renewed focus on efforts aimed at improving our ability to undertake meaningful, coherent, coordinated and sustainable peace interventions. For example, the Joint Utstein Study of peacebuilding, which analysed 336 peacebuilding projects implemented by Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Norway over the past decade, has identified a lack of coherence at the strategic level, what it terms a 'strategic deficit', as the most significant obstacle to sustainable peacebuilding (Smith, 2003:16). That study found that more than 55% of the programmes it evaluated did not show any link to a larger country strategy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, and United Nations