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251. The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention: A Primer

Author:
Paul Romita
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
At a recent conference on conflict prevention attended by over fifty UN member states, a UN official remarked, “we are living in a conflict prevention moment.” In recent years, there has been a surge of interest and activity related to conflict prevention in the UN system, at the regional level and among member states. While the UN has made great strides in refining peacekeeping doctrine and strategy, it has also made significant progress in its political response and preventive activities in recent times. In 2007, the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) established a mediation support unit “to plan and support mediation efforts in the field.” In late 2008, DPA also secured member-state support to create forty-nine additional posts; it now has approximately 270 staff members. While this was less than half of the number of new posts requested by the department, it did help desk officers to more substantially engage on conflict prevention and good-offices work in their portfolio countries. The UN Office in West Africa (UNOWA) has played a critical preventive role in recent crises in Mauritania and Guinea. A UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) was also established in March 2011 to “assist member States and sub-regional organizations in consolidating peace and preventing future conflicts.” In recent years, the African Union (AU) has been an influential mediator in high-profile cases, notably in Kenya (2008) and Sudan (2010–2011). Among the UN membership, especially among African member states, statements calling for the need to strengthen conflict-prevention tools are now consistently voiced. The Security Council, which now holds monthly “horizon scanning” sessions to discuss emerging and ongoing crises, appears to be a part of this trend.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Kenya, Guinea, and Mauritania

252. Making UN Peacekeeping More Robust: Protecting the Mission, Persuading the Actors

Author:
Patrice Sartre
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The debate about robust peacekeeping pits the enthusiasm of “diplomats,” who believe in peacekeeping but worry that it might not succeed in violent situations, against the scepticism of the “military,” who see its failures as proof that the proper role of military forces is war fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

253. Paradox of Power: Sino American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability

Author:
David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Book
Abstract:
The United States and China each have or will soon have the ability to inflict grave harm upon the other by nuclear attack, attacks on satellites, or attacks on computer networks. Paradoxically, despite each country's power, its strategic vulnerability is growing. Particularly since September 11, 2001, Americans have sensed this vulnerability. The extent to which the Chinese sense it is unclear. Vulnerability to nuclear attack is familiar to both countries. But the United States and China are also becoming exposed to damage in space and cyberspace because of their growing reliance on those domains for their prosperity and security, as well as each side's increasing antisatellite (ASAT) and cyber war capabilities. For China, economic integration, production, and commerce-and thus, sustained growth and perhaps political stability-depend vitally on data sharing, making networks and satellites as strategic as they are for the United States. All three strategic domains are "offense dominant"-technologically, economically, and operationally. Defenses against nuclear, ASAT, and cyber weapons are difficult and yield diminishing results against the offensive capabilities of large, advanced, and determined states such as the United States and China. Nuclear weapons are patently offense dominant because a single explosion can destroy a city. Moreover, it is easier and cheaper for China to improve the survivability of its strategic missile launchers, to multiply deliverable weapons, and to penetrate U.S. missile defenses than it is for the United States to maintain a nuclear first-strike capability. Though it has yet to admit it, the United States cannot deny the Chinese the second-strike nuclear deterrent they are determined to have. Satellites are inherently vulnerable: conspicuous, easy to track, and fragile. Destroying them or degrading their performance is easier than protecting them. ASAT interceptors are much cheaper than satellites. Likewise, defending computer networks becomes harder and more expensive as the scale and sophistication of the attacker increase. The woes of the cyber defender are compounded by integrated global markets and supply chains for digital components and equipment-in which U.S. and state-affiliated Chinese corporations are leading competitors-increasing the potential for strategic degradation of network infrastructure and disruption of services. In general, strategic offense dominance gives each country an incentive to invest in offense, which in turn spurs the other to keep pace. Apart from offense dominance, the advance of technology has slashed the costs in lives and treasure of strategic attack, as capabilities have graduated from mass invasion to heavy bombing to nuclear weapons to ASAT and cyber war. If one ignores possible deaths resulting from disruption of public services, ASAT and cyber war might even be considered "nonviolent." As the number of expected casualties from strategic attack options drops, so could international opprobrium and the inhibitions of decisionmakers. Absent deterrence, thresholds for war in space and cyberspace could become perilously low as offenses improve.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Communism, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

254. Multilateral Political Missions and Preventive Diplomacy

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Multilateral political missions—teams of primarily civilian experts deployed by international and regional organizations with medium- to long-term mandates—play an overlooked role in preventing conflicts in fragile states. Their roles range from addressing long-term tensions to facilitating agreements to quelling escalating violence. More than six thousand personnel are deployed in political missions worldwide. The United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe oversee the majority of these missions. Although many political missions deal with active conflicts or post conflict situations, some have contributed to conflict prevention in countries ranging from Estonia to Guinea. In the right circumstances, multilateral missions can provide expertise and impartial assistance that national diplomats—whether ambassadors or special envoys—cannot. The activities of political missions include short-term preventive diplomacy, the promotion of the rule of law, and the provision of advice on socioeconomic issues. Some are also involved in monitoring human rights and the implementation of political agreements. Others have regional mandates allowing them to address multiple potential conflicts. A political mission's role differs depending on how far a potential conflict has evolved. In cases where latent tensions threaten long-term stability, a mission can focus on social and legal mechanisms to reduce the risk of escalation. Where a conflict is already escalating, a mission can become directly involved in mediating a peaceful resolution. Even where a conflict tips into full-scale war, a political mission may assist in mitigating violence or keeping political channels open. To strengthen political missions, the United States and its partners should work with the UN Secretariat to revise the rules governing the planning, funding, and start-up processes for political missions and overhaul U.N. personnel rules to make recruiting civilian experts easier. They should also encourage regional organizations to invest more in this type of conflict management tool.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Law, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

255. Preventive Diplomacy: Regions in Focus

Author:
Francesco Mancini
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Preventive diplomacy—conceived by Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold in the mid-1950s and revitalized in the early 1990s by Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali—is a vital instrument in the United Nations' conflict-prevention toolkit. While the responsibility for preventing conflict and its escalation ultimately lies with countries themselves, the UN has played an indispensable supporting role since its establishment and will continue to do so.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
America, Israel, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

256. Great Expectations: UN Peacekeeping, Civilian Protection, and the Use of Force

Author:
Alan Doss
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The proliferation of intra-state conflicts in the post-Cold War era has led to a substantial increase in the number of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, resulting in the creation of forty-eight peacekeeping missions since 1990. The unprecedented challenges faced in the 1990's – and in particular, the failures in Rwanda, Srebrenica, and Somalia – obliged the UN to revisit and rethink its peacekeeping strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Cold War, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Rwanda and Somalia

257. For a Renewed Consensus on UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Contrary to some predictions of decline in United Nations (UN) involvement in peacekeeping (alongside the increasing role of regional organizations), the last decade has been characterized by a constant increase in personnel deployed in UN peacekeeping operations, demonstrating both the legitimacy of the UN for this type of activity, and its flexibility and adaptability. More precisely, the wide range of instruments at the disposal of the UN in the field of conflict management makes it a permanent option as well as a facilitator of burden sharing among organizations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

258. Pursuing Cyber Statecraft

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
If the world is going to solve problems of cooperation and conflict in cyberspace, states and non-state actors alike must apply a wider range of tools. Our experience in this domain is still limited to a few decades – and there are still comparatively few digital natives – so it is not surprising that we have not hit upon the ideal set of concepts and instruments.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Non State Actors

259. Conflict Prevention through Natural Resource Management? A Comparative Study

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Annegret Mähler, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Natural resources are often held responsible for intrastate conflicts. As a consequence, both national and international measures to avoid the detrimental impact of resource endowments have increasingly been discussed and implemented in resource-rich countries. These measures include stabilization funds, subregional development programs, revenue-sharing regimes, and transparency initiatives. However, comparative empirical studies of the actual impact of these measures, particularly regarding their contribution to conflict prevention, are scarce. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap: combining a medium-N sample of oildependent countries and three in-depth case studies (Algeria, Nigeria, and Venezuela), we evaluate different instruments of resource management and their effects on conflict risk factors. On the one hand, the findings do not show any systematic connection between the countermeasures and a reduction in resource-related risks; on the other, the paper highlights common causal factors for the lack of implementation of resource-related countermeasures.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, Latin America, Venezuela, and Nigeria

260. Risk and Resilience in Three Southeast Asian Cross-Border Areas: The Greater Mekong Subregion, the Heart of Borneo and the Coral Triangle

Author:
Fitrian Ardiansyah and Desak Putu Adhityani Putri
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the security impacts of climate change in three Southeast Asian cross-border areas– the Greater Mekong Subregion, the Heart of Borneo and the Coral Triangle – through an examination of the ways in which climate change results in human insecurity and possibly social unrest, tension and conflict. The three cross-border areas are significant in that they host unique but threatened large-scale freshwater, terrestrial forest, coastal and marine ecosystems. In addition, they are home to more than 400 million people and provide important ecosystem goods and services to many countries in the region. This paper explores and evaluates regional agreements and actions in each of the three areas, with an emphasis on the mainstreaming of climate adaptation as well as mitigation in the development agenda. The analysis also points to the importance of reaching out to other actors beyond state and intergovernmental ones if adaptation and mitigation efforts were to succeed. There is a need to identify other actors, such as the business sector, local communities and the public, with the aim of getting them involved in these important issues.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Climate Change, Territorial Disputes, and Water
Political Geography:
Asia