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202. Institutional Conflict Settlement in Divided Societies: The Role of Subgroup Identities in Self-Government Arrangements
- Author:
- Alexander De Juan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases they fail to bring about lasting peace. The paper argues that their negligence of intraethnic factors accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal or religious subgroups. This internal heterogeneity is often obscured by overarching collective ethnic identities that are fostered by interethnic conflict. However, when such interethnic conflict is settled, these subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This “resurgence” can lead to subgroup conflict about the political and economic resources provided through intergroup institutional settlements. Such conflict can in turn undermine the peace-making effect of intergroup arrangements. Different subgroup identity constellations make such destructive effects more or less likely. The paper focuses on self-government provisions in the aftermath of violent interethnic conflict and argues that lasting intergroup arrangements are especially challenging when they involve “contested” ethnic groups.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Religion, Governance, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Iraq
203. Atrocity Prevention through Persuasion and Deterrence
- Author:
- Jonas Claes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Political missions can be described as multilateral teams of primarily civilian experts that rely largely on political persuasion to find a nonviolent way out of crises. Preventive deployments are defensive military missions primarily aimed at deterring state or non-state actors from initiating undesired actions. Both political missions and preventive deployments are traditionally seen as conflict management tools used by international or regional organizations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Crime, Genocide, and Human Rights
204. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
205. Bangladesh: Back to the Future
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh could face a protracted political crisis in the lead-up to the 2013 elections unless Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government changes course and takes a more conciliatory approach towards the political opposition and the military. In December 2008, following two years of a military-backed caretaker government, the Awami League (AL) secured a landslide victory in what were widely acknowledged to be the fairest elections in the country's history. The hope, both at home and abroad, was that Sheikh Hasina would use her mandate to revitalise democratic institutions and pursue national reconciliation, ending the pernicious cycle of zero-sum politics between her AL and its rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Three and a half years on, hope has been replaced by deep disillusionment, as two familiar threats to Bangladesh's democracy have returned: the prospect of election-related violence and the risks stemming from an unstable and hostile military.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and Asia
206. The Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation in Combating Insurgencies
- Author:
- Patrick B. Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Targeting militant leaders is central to many states' national security strategies, but does it work? What should policymakers expect when government armed forces kill or capture militant leaders? Is leadership decapitation more likely to succeed or fail under certain conditions? These questions have never been more pressing than since the May 2011 killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
207. Stay on Target: Will the UK fight the battle for tough arms controls?
- Author:
- Edmund Cairns
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- A robust global Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is desperately needed to stop the irresponsible transfer of arms that fuels: Atrocities – like those in Syria, where more than 8,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed since the crackdown on protests began in early 2011;Armed violence and conflicts – which is estimated to cost Africa alone $18bn a year; Corruption in the. defence industry – which costs $20bn a year, and which undermines the competitiveness of UK exporters.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Non-Governmental Organization, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Syria
208. Armed Clash in the South China Sea
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue, especially between the United States and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China's two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping—and being shaped by—rising apprehensions about the growth of China's military power and its regional intentions. China has embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that would put U.S. forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially denying access to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Oil, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Malaysia, Israel, Taiwan, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Brunei
209. Stirring up the South China Sea (II): Regional Responses
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The South China Sea dispute between China and some of its South East Asian neighbours – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – has reached an impasse. Increasingly assertive positions among claimants have pushed regional tensions to new heights. Driven by potential hydrocarbon reserves and declining fish stocks, Vietnam and the Philippines in particular are taking a more confrontational posture with China. All claimants are expanding their military and law enforcement capabilities, while growing nationalism at home is empowering hardliners pushing for a tougher stance on territorial claims. In addition, claimants are pursuing divergent resolution mechanisms; Beijing insists on resolving the disputes bilaterally, while Vietnam and the Philippines are actively engaging the U.S. and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To counter diminishing prospects of resolution of the conflicts, the countries should strengthen efforts to promote joint development of hydrocarbon and fish resources and adopt a binding code of conduct for all parties to the dispute.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Maritime Commerce, Natural Resources, and Food
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, Israel, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Brunei
210. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
- Author:
- Gregoire Patte
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As the cornerstone of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Mokhtar Belmokhtar was intimately involved in all aspects of AQIM's operations, its tribal relationships, its smuggling operations, and its liaisoning with other terrorist groups. This paper provides details of Mokhtar Belmokhtar's role in AQIM and the effects stemming from his possible demise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and North Africa