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911. The Difficulties of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Observers have relied increasingly on simple reaction functions, such as the Taylor rule, to assess the conduct of monetary policy. Applying this approach to deflationary or near-zero inflation environments is problematic, however, and this paper examines two shortcomings of particular relevance to the Japanese case of the last decade. One is the unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with potential output in an environment of prolonged stagnation and deflation. Consequently, reaction function-based assessments of Japanese monetary policy are so sensitive to the chosen gauge of potential output as to be unreliable. The second shortcoming is the neglect of policy expectations, which become critically important as nominal interest rates approach zero. Using long-term bond yields, we identify five episodes since 1996 characterized by abrupt declines in Japanese inflation expectations. Policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan during this period did little to stabilize expectations, and the August 2000 interest rate increase appears to have intensified deflationary concerns.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

912. Population and the Environment

Author:
Joel Cohen
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Humans have influenced environmental changes in the past, and vice versa. The two-way interaction between people and their environments will continue in the future. In the coming half-century, the human population will probably be larger, more slowly growing, more urban, and older than in the twentieth century. No one knows whether humans will be more internationally mobile. These changes, with uncertain environmental consequences, result from human choices, individual and collective, and are therefore subject to influence by programs and policies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and OPEC

913. Plant Biotechnology and the Environment

Author:
Gordon Conway
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Many people who worry about the environmental effects of plant biotechnology fear that we are dealing with some new threat. I would argue that this is not the case. It is not plant biotechnology that is new and unknown, it is the combination of biotechnology and globalization, and the incredibly fast pace at which the two spread and interact, that should concern us.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology

914. Transition to an IP Environment

Author:
Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This year's Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy began as an attempt to chart a future in which packet-based Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) will supplant traditional switched circuit telephony. Among other things, VoIP appears to be propelling the marginal cost of long-distance telephoning toward zero, a development with profound implications for interexchange carriers. However, prompted in part by Lawrence Strickling's specially-commissioned piece, “The Telecommunications Marketplace in 2002: A Somewhat Fanciful Scenario,” it did not take long for conference participants to realize that a great deal more than the future profitability of long-distance service is at stake.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

915. Corporate Welfare for Weapons Makers the Hidden Costs of Spending on Defense and Foreign Aid

Author:
William D. Hartung
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The defense and foreign aid budgets are the largest single source of government funding for private corporations. More than half of U.S. weapons sales are now being financed by taxpayers instead of foreign arms purchasers. During fiscal year 1996 (the last year for which full statistics are available), the government spent more than $7.9 billion to help U.S. companies secure just over $12 billion in agreements for new international arms sales. The annual $7.9 billion in subsidies includes taxpayer-backed loans, grants, and government promotional activities that help U.S. weapons makers sell their products to foreign customers. Also, the provision of low-cost facilities and extensive subsidies for research and development and mergers and acquisitions to major contractors fosters a “risk-free” environment in which weapons makers have little economic incentive to produce effective systems at affordable prices. Furthermore, a portion of the $120 billion the Pentagon spends each year on contracts with U.S. defense contractors is being wasted on defense pork—that is, redundant or unneeded weapons systems. Such subsidies and spending for defense pork can interfere with the fulfillment of legitimate security needs.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Climate Change, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

916. Climate Change Policy: The Road to Buenos Aires

Author:
Jason Shogren, Robert N. Stavins, Kevin Hassett, and Eileen Claussen
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
When the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change met in Kyoto last December, the participating countries, including the United States, established a protocol for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by developed countries. The U.S. Senate has not yet decided whether to ratify the agreement.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, International Law, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States