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701. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

Author:
Juzhong Zhuang, Suphachol Suphachalasai, and Jindra Nuella Samson
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
CSoutheast Asia is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its long coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas, and heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. Climate change is already affecting the region, as shown by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones in recent decades.
Topic:
Climate Change and Development
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

702. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel

703. Confronting the American Divide on Carbon Emissions Regulation

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The failure of carbon regulation in the U.S. Congress has undermined international negotiations to reduce carbon emissions. The global stalemate has, in turn, increased the likelihood that vulnerable developing countries will be severely damaged by climate change. This paper asks why the tragic American impasse has occurred, while the EU has succeeded in implementing carbon regulation. Both cases have involved negotiations between relatively rich “Green” regions and relatively poor “Brown” (carbon-intensive) regions, with success contingent on two factors: the interregional disparity in carbon intensity, which proxies the extra mitigation cost burden for the Brown region, and the compensating incentives provided by the Green region. The European negotiation has succeeded because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is relatively small, and the compensating incentive (EU membership for the Brown region) has been huge. In contrast, the U.S. negotiation has repeatedly failed because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is huge, and the compensating incentives have been modest at best. The unsettling implication is that an EU-style arrangement is infeasible in the United States, so the Green states will have to find another path to serious carbon mitigation. One option is mitigation within their own boundaries, through clean technology subsidies or emissions regulation. The Green states have undertaken such measures, but potential free-riding by the Brown states and international competitors seems likely to limit this approach, and it would address only the modest Green-state portion of U.S. carbon emissions in any case. The second option is mobilization of the Green states' enormous market power through a carbon added tax (CAT). Rather than taxing carbon emissions at their points of production, a CAT taxes the carbon embodied in products at their points of consumption. For Green states, a CAT has four major advantages: It can be implemented unilaterally, state-by-state; it encourages clean production everywhere, by taxing carbon from all sources equally; it creates a market advantage for local producers, by taxing transport-related carbon emissions; and it offers fiscal flexibility, since it can either offset existing taxes or raise additional revenue.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

704. A Research Strategy for the Pacific Climate Information System

Author:
Melissa L. Finucane, John Marra, and James C. Weyman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Based on a selective review of the outcomes of previous meetings, conferences, workshops, and papers highlighting climate variability and change research needs in the Pacific region, this paper presents a research strategy for increasing understanding of climate-society linkages in Pacific Island settings. The strategy provides a synopsis of emerging research goals and illustrative activities that users can rank according to their priorities. Grounded in the framework of the Pacific Climate Information System, the strategy is comprised of three key research elements: (1) research to enhance understanding of regional climate risks and consequences; (2) research to improve decision support and risk communication; and (3) research to improve climate adaptation capacity. We envision the strategy will contribute to enhanced understanding of scientific and societal knowledge of climate processes and their impacts and stakeholder capacity for building sustainable island communities for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

705. The Economics of Population Policy for Carbon Emissions Reduction in Developing Countries

Author:
David Wheeler and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Female education and family planning are both critical for sustainable development, and they obviously merit expanded support without any appeal to global climate considerations. However, even relatively optimistic projections suggest that family planning and female education will suffer from financing deficits that will leave millions of women unserved in the coming decades. Since both activities affect fertility, population growth, and carbon emissions, they may also provide sufficient climate-related benefits to warrant additional financing from resources devoted to carbon emissions abatement. This paper considers the economic case for such support. Using recent data on emissions, program effectiveness and program costs, we estimate the cost of carbon emissions abatement via family planning and female education. We compare our estimates with the costs of numerous technical abatement options that have been estimated by Nauclér and Enkvist in a major study for McKinsey and Company (2009). We find that the population policy options are much less costly than almost all of the options Nauclér and Enkvist provide for low-carbon energy development, including solar, wind, and nuclear power, second-generation biofuels, and carbon capture and storage. They are also cost-competitive with forest conservation and other improvements in forestry and agricultural practices. We conclude that female education and family planning should be viewed as viable potential candidates for financial support from global climate funds. The case for female education is also strengthened by its documented contribution to resilience in the face of the climate change that has already become inevitable.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Gender Issues, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa

706. National Commitments, Compliance and the Future of the Kyoto Protocol

Author:
Noriko Fujiwara and Diarmuid Torney
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Among the many unresolved issues on the agenda of the forthcoming UN climate change negotiations in Cancun is the issue of what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, since at present, there will be no targets for greenhouse (GHG) emissions from developed countries under the Protocol beyond 2012. To illuminate this aspect of the Protocol, this Policy Brief looks closer at the nature of the commitments and the compliance regime under the Kyoto Protocol. We argue that the compliance regime of the Protocol is not as robust as many of the Protocol's supporters might think. The precise legal form of the commitments in the climate regime may have little impact on whether countries actually achieve their targets. Instead, we argue, negotiators should focus on agreeing a framework of commitments that are credible and enforceable, rather than focus excessively on the legal form of those commitments.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

707. CO2 Highways for Europe: Modelling a Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage Infrastructure for Europe

Author:
Johannes Herold, Roman Mendelevitch, Pao-Yu Oei, and Andreas Tissen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
We present a mixed integer, multi-period, cost-minimising model for a carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) network in Europe. The model incorpor ates endogenous decisions about carbon capture, pipeline and storage investments. The capture, flow and injection quantities are based on given costs, certificate prices, storage capacities and point source emissions. The results indicate that CCTS can theoretically contribute to the decarbonisation of Europe's energy and industrial sectors. This requires a CO2 certificate price rising to €55 per tCO2 in 2050, and sufficient CO2 storage capacity available for both on- and offshore sites. Yet CCTS deployment is highest in CO2-intensive industries where emissions cannot be avoided by fuel switching or alternative production processes. In all scenarios, the importance of the industrial sector as a first-mover to induce the deployment of CCTS is highlighted. By contrast, a decrease in available storage capacity or a more moderate increase in CO2 prices will significantly reduce the role of CCTS as a CO2 mitigation technology, especially in the energy sector. Furthermore, continued public resistance to onshore CO2 storage can only be overcome by constructing expensive offshore storage. Under this restriction, reaching the same levels of CCTS penetration would require a doubling of CO2 certificate prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

708. The Politics of Carbon Leakage and the Fairness of Border Measures

Author:
Robyn Eckersley
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
The article critically examines domestic political concerns about the competitive disadvantages and possible carbon leakage arising from the introduction of domestic emission trading legislation and the fairness of applying carbon equalization measures at the border as a response to these concerns. I argue that the border adjustment measures proposed in the emissions trading bills that have been presented to Congress amount to an evasion of the U.S.'s leadership responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). I also show how the "level commercial playing field" justification for border measures that has dominated U.S. domestic debates is narrow and lopsided because it focuses only on the competitive disadvantages and direct carbon leakage that may flow from climate regulation while ignoring general shifts in the production and consumption of emissions in the global economy, which have enabled the outsourcing of emission to developing countries.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
United States

709. Thoughts on Grand Strategy and the United States in the Twenty-first Century

Author:
Dr. Williamson Murray
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
One might begin an examination of the issues involved in grand strategy with an effort to describe what we mean by the term. Over the centuries, some governments and leaders have attempted to chart a course for their nations that has involved something more than simply reacting to the course of events. In most cases they have confronted sudden and major changes in the international environment, often resulting from the outbreak of great conflicts, but at times involving economic, strategic, or political alterations that threaten the stability or even existence of their polities.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
United States

710. Shanghai Alleys, Theatrical Practice, and Cinematic Spectatorship: From Street Angel (1937) to Fifth Generation Film

Author:
Alexander Des Forges
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article argues that a certain type of Shanghai film of the Republican period, exemplified by 1937's Street Angel (馬路天使, Malu tianshi), makes use of a specific mode of spatial organization, modelled on the theatre, to represent the urban environment. In the case of Street Angel, and later on in 1964's Stage Sisters (舞台姐妹, Wutai jiemei), the interaction between performers and audiences characteristic of the Shanghai theatre experience serves as a crucial ground on which to base calls to political action. For a variety of related reasons, both the city of Shanghai and this mode of spatial organization so closely associated with it vanish from the big screen in the 1980s and 1990s, and begin to make a return only at the turn of the new century.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai