Search

Begin New Search Topic Causality

1. Türkiye’de Yapılan Nedensellik Araştırmaları Üzerine: Sahte Nedensellik Bulguları

Author:
Ahmet Aydın Arı, Kerim Eser Afşar, and Murat Şenol
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de ve dünya-da yapılan nedensellik çalışmalarının karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmesiyle, ulusal ve uluslararası lite-ratür arasındaki farklılıkların tespit edilmesidir. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn- Yöntem olarak karşı-laştırmalı analiz ve bibliyometri kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntemler, iki farklı literatürdeki nedensellik çalış-malarını değerlendirmek için seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar- Ulusal ve uluslararası literatürde özelikle sahte nedenselliğin ihmal edilmesi nedeniyle büyük bir uçurum ortaya çıkmaktadır. Türkiye’de uluslara-rası literatürle bağları zayıf olan yerel bir nedensel-lik literatürünün oluştuğu tespit edilmiştir. Ulusal li-teratürde nedensellik kavramını kullanan yazarların genellikle sahte korelasyon gibi bir durumu neden-sellik olarak algılayarak değerlendirmesi ve analiz-lerini nedensellik olarak belirtmesi yapılan çalışma-ların katkı değerini azaltan bir durum ortaya çıkar-maktadır. Ulusal literatürde ortaya çıkan kapalı bi-limsel ağ yapısı, gelecekte gerçekleşecek diğer ça-lışmalar için patika bağımlılığı riski yaratmaktadır. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Politika tasarımlarında neden-sellik sonuçları, önemli bir teorik dayanak noktası-dır. Bu konunun ampirik iktisat literatüründe ihmal edilmesi hatalı politika çıkarımlarına neden olabilir.
Topic:
Economics, Causality, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2. Temporal Horizons in the Study of Turkish Politics: Prevalence of Non-Causal Description and Seemingly Global Warming Type of Causality

Author:
Şener Aktürk
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this article, I critically evaluate the causal and temporal dimension of social scientific studies focusing on Turkish politics. A very important and yet often neglected aspect of social scientific analysis involves the temporal dimension of causal processes. The temporal dimension of causal processes has direct consequences for operationalization and measurement, and hence it is an essential component of research design. Does the dependent variable (outcome) of interest unfold over the short term or the long term? Do the hypothesized independent variables (causes) unfold over the short term or the long term? Paul Pierson (2004) provided a classification of four types of causality based on the temporal dimension of causes and outcomes using metaphors of natural disasters: tornado, earthquake, meteorite, and global warming. Operationalization and measurement of long term causes and outcomes pose a major challenge, compounded by the challenges of periodization of causes and effects. Unfortunately, a large proportion of the studies of Turkish politics do not have a clearly discernible independent variable (cause) to begin with, and they are thus better characterized as works of “non-causal description.” Moreover, many of the studies of Turkish politics tend to imply, but rarely state explicitly, a global warming type of causality (long term cause and long term outcome), which necessitates focusing even more intensively on such challenges of measurement and periodization. Yet the operationalization of the key (dependent and independent) variables is often missing even in articles published in reputable academic journals of Turkish politics and society. In the spirit of constructive criticism, I suggest a number of guidelines for research design in order to address the problems of causality and temporality discussed in this article, including awareness of multi-temporal equifinality.
Topic:
Operationalization, Temporality, Periodization, Conceptualization, and Causality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Economic Growth and Public Debt in the Economic Globalization Era: An Empirical Investigation of Developing Countries

Author:
Barış Kablamacı
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
This paper empirically examines the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in a sample of the 72 countries consisting of less developed and developing, country-by-country, in the period of 1970–2015. I apply the Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger non-causality testing procedure. I observe a significant causality from economic growth to the public debt of a country in twenty-one countries. In fifteen countries, there is a unidirectional causality running from the public debt to economic growth. I find bi-directional causality in only nine countries and no causal relation in twenty-seven economies.
Topic:
Developing World, Economies, Economic Growth, Public Debt, and Causality
Political Geography:
Global Focus