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152. The Search for an Exit from the Poland–Belarus Deadlock on Small Border Traffic
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A Polish–Belarusian agreement on small border traffic (SBT) could revive border trade and open new opportunities for regional cooperation. The Belarusian authorities, however, do not want the agreement to enter into force and treat it as a form of pressure on Warsaw. Poland may attempt to influence a change in this position by indicating the potential benefits to the Belarusian economy as well as to border areas if the agreement is implemented and noting the high level of support among residents who live there.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
153. Beyond Borders
- Author:
- David A. Andelman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- World Policy Journal
- Institution:
- World Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Civilization marks its beginnings to the moment, more than 14,000 years ago, humans first gathered into settlements, leaving behind their days as nomadic hunters and gatherers. Known as sedentarization, this phenomenon likely debuted in the Fertile Crescent of the Levant, followed by the Yangtze and Yellow River basins two millennia later, and eventually in Mexico, South America, and finally the eastern shores of the United States. At each point sprang up villages, cities, and eventually, nations. Over thousands of years, fixed boundaries were codified and defended, often at great cost. Many borders have been drawn wisely, following natural formations like barriers of mountains or rivers. Many follow linguistic, ethnic, religious, or tribal boundaries. But others have been haphazardly imposed by outsiders with the stroke of a pen on some distant map. As empires fell and the speed of global trade and migration increased, boundaries became complex barriers to the free movement of people and ideas. Today, some provoke violent wars and revolutions, while others can be breached by brave individuals and new technologies—issues that World Policy Journal explores in our spring cover theme.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Nationalism, International Affairs, Border Control, and Urbanization
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, and Mexico
154. The Big Question: How should borders be drawn?
- Author:
- Bonnie Glaser, Tsuneo Akaha, Aarthi Rao, Ruairi Nolan, Peter Taylor, Howard Eissenstat, Eun- Ju Kim, Anssi Paasi, Henk van Houtum, and Richard Schofield
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- World Policy Journal
- Institution:
- World Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Boundaries define nations. Across Europe and Asia, through Africa and Latin America, old frontiers are being challenged. The primacy of the state is under increased scrutiny as the telecommunications revolution erases once impermeable divides. We have asked our panel of global experts how borders should be drawn on land, on sea, and in the blogosphere.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Science and Technology, International Affairs, Communications, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America
155. Afghanistan After the Drawdown
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones and Keith Crane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan will undergo three major transitions in 2014: from a Hamid Karzai-led government to one presumably headed by another president following the 2014 election; from a U.S.-led to an Afghan-led counterinsurgency; and from an economy driven by foreign expenditures on military support and assistance to one more reliant on domestic sources of growth, as the United States and other countries reduce their presence. The United States and its allies will need to shape each of these transitions in ways that safeguard their interests.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
156. Syria's Maturing Insurgency
- Author:
- Joseph Holliday
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This report examines the increasing effectiveness of Syria's armed opposition, explains how responsible provincial-level military structures have emerged, and considers how uncoordinated external support could compound existing fractures within the opposition.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
157. Jihad in Syria
- Author:
- Elizabeth O'Bagy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- This report examines the presence of jihadist groups within Syria, explains where various Syrian rebel groups and foreign elements operating in Syria fall along the spectrum of religious ideology, and considers their aggregate effect upon the Islamification of the Syrian opposition. The Syrian conflict began as a secular revolt against autocracy. Yet as the conflict protracts, a radical Islamist dynamic has emerged within the opposition. There is a small but growing jihadist presence inside Syria, and this presence within the opposition galvanizes Assad's support base and complicates U.S. involvement in the conflict. Internally, Assad has used the threat of jihadists within the opposition to build support for the regime among the Alawite and Christian communities. It has also served to discourage middle and upper class Sunnis from joining the opposition. Externally, Russian and Iranian leadership have consistently pointed to the presence of radical Islamists as a critical rationale for their support of the Assad regime. Compared to uprisings in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, the opposition in Syria faces a much greater threat of jihadist infiltration. Many jihadi elements now operating in Syria are already familiar with the terrain, having been sponsored by the Assad regime for over three decades. These jihadi elements turned against their former regime allies in 2011 and are now cooperating with local jihadists. Moderate political Islam is not incompatible with democratic governance. However, ultraconservative Sunni Islamists, known as Salafists, envision a new world order modeled on early Islam that poses a significant threat to both democracy and the notion of statehood. Salafi-jihadists are those who commit to violent means to bring about the Salafi vision. It is difficult to distinguish between moderate Islamists and Salafi-jihadists in the context of the Syrian civil war. Assad's security solution transformed the largely peaceful uprising into an open civil war, and now even political Islamists and Syrian nationalists are engaged in violent means. Additionally, the mainstream use of jihadi iconography by non-Salafist rebel groups distorts perceptions about their ideologies and end-goals. It is significant to draw the distinction in order to understand which Islamist opposition groups are willing to work within a state system. hh The vast majority of Syrians opposing the regime are local revolutionaries still fighting against autocracy; while they are not Islamists, in the sense that their political visions do not depend upon Islamic principles, they espouse varying degrees of personal religious fervor. There are also moderate Islamists operating within the Syrian opposition, including those who comprise rebel groups like Suquor al-Sham and the Umma Brigade, who are typified by a commitment to political Islam that is compatible with democracy. hh On the more extreme end of the spectrum are groups like Ahrar al-Sham, which is comprised of conservative Islamist, and often Salafist, member units. Ahrar al-Sham's leadership espouses a political Islamist ideology, though it is clear that the group has attracted more radical and extreme elements of the opposition including many Salafi-jihadists. The brigade also has notable ties to Syria's indigenous jihadist organization, Jabhat Nusra. Al-Qaeda's direct involvement in Syria has been exaggerated in the media. However, small al-Qaeda affiliated networks are operating in the country, including elements of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abdullah Azzam Brigades, Fatah al-Islam and Jordanian Salafi-jihadists. Rather than sending large numbers of operatives, these networks are providing operational support, including trainers and bomb makers, in order to capitalize on the instability in Syria and expand their influence in the region. Jabhat Nusra, Syria's homegrown Salafi-jihadist group, has important links to al-Qaeda affiliates and demonstrates a higher level of effectiveness than many other rebel groups. Jabhat Nusra has demonstrated sensitivity to popular perception and they are gaining support within Syria. The emergence of indigenous Salafi-jihadist groups such as Jabhat Nusra is far more dangerous to the long-term stability of the Syrian state than foreign jihadist groups because it represents a metamorphosis of a Salafi-jihadist ideology into a domestic platform that is able to achieve popular resonance. The U.S. cannot afford to support groups that will endanger Syria's future stability. However, if the U.S. chooses to limit its contact with Islamist groups altogether, it may alienate a majority of the opposition. Identifying the end goals of opposition groups will be the key to determining whether their visions for Syrian governance are compatible with U.S. interests. The U.S. Government has cited concern over arming jihadists as a reason for limiting support to the Syrian opposition. However, U.S. allies are already providing material support to the Syrian opposition, and competing sources of funding threaten Syria's future stability by enhancing the influence of more radical elements. The confluence of jihadist interest with that of the Gulf states raises the possibility that these states may leverage jihadists for their own strategic purposes, while simultaneously limiting Western influence. In order to counter this effect, the U.S. should seek to channel this support in a way that bolsters responsible groups and players while ensuring that Salafi-jihadist organizations such as Jabhat Nusra are unable to hijack the opposition movement. If the U.S. hopes to counter this threat and stem the growing popularity of more radical groups, it must clearly identify secular and moderate Islamist opposition groups and encourage the international community to focus resources in support of those groups alone. Such focused support would increase the influence of moderate opposition groups and undercut the appeal of Salafism in Syria.
- Topic:
- Islam, International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia
158. Are U.S. Borders Secure?
- Author:
- Edward Alden and Bryan Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In response to record numbers of illegal border crossings and the security fears triggered by the 9/11 attacks, over the past two decades the United States has steadily increased its efforts to secure its borders against illegal immigration. The number of U.S. Border Patrol agents has risen from fewer than 3,000 to more than 20,700; nearly 700 miles of fencing have been built along the southern border with Mexico; and surveillance systems, including pilotless drones, now monitor much of the rest of the border. In a speech in El Paso, Texas, in May, U.S. President Barack Obama claimed that the United States had "strengthened border security beyond what many believed was possible." Yet according to spring 2011 Rasmussen poll, nearly two-thirds of Americans think the border is no more, or even less, secure than it was five years ago. Some administration critics claim that the United States' frontiers have never been more porous. This contradiction stems in part from the fact that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has never clearly defined what border control means in practice. A secure border cannot mean one with no illegal crossings -- that would be unrealistic for almost any country, especially one as big and as open as the United States. On the other hand, the borders cannot be considered secure if many of those attempting to enter illegally succeed. Defining a sensible middle ground, where border enforcement and other programs discourage many illegal crossings and most of those who try to cross illegally are apprehended, is the challenge. Unfortunately, the U.S. government has failed to develop good measures for fixing goals and determining progress toward them. Since 2005, the DHS has reported how many miles of the country's land borders are under its "operational control," but it has done so without having clearly defined what that standard means and without providing hard data to back it up. The lack of sound measurement has left the administration touting its efforts rather than their results: during a press conference in 2010, Obama noted, "We have more of everything: ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement], Border Patrol, surveillance, you name it. So we take border security seriously."
- Topic:
- Security and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
159. Waging Peace: ASEAN and the Thai-Cambodian Border Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia that caused dozens of casualties and displaced thousands have challenged the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to finally turn its rhetoric on peace and security into action. Cambodia's successful attempt to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site came against the backdrop of turmoil in Thai politics after the 2006 coup that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai pro-establishment movements used this issue to whip up nationalist sentiments against Cambodia as they tried to topple the Thaksin-backed government. The emotionally charged campaigns halted border demarcation and sparked a bilateral conflict. In early 2011, the dispute turned into the most violent clash yet between ASEAN's members, testing its historical commitment to non-aggression and prompting it to get involved. This has raised expectations that it might live up to its stated aspiration to keep peace in its own region. As yet, however, while its engagement set important precedents, it has no significant achievements. More robust diplomacy and leadership are still needed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
160. Prospects and Challenges for Increasing India-Pakistan Trade
- Author:
- Ishrat Husain
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In the face of massive economic challenges, a burgeoning population, energy and water shortages, and huge and growing numbers of unemployed workers, especially youth, Pakistan needs to look for ways to move itself out of the economic hole into which it has fallen. Greater trade with India offers an immediate and rich possibility of economic growth for both Pakistan and India. Recent meetings between the commerce ministers of both countries in New Delhi appear to have yielded some good intentions to increase trade from its current level of $2 billion a year to $6 billion, still well below what many scholars estimate to be the potential. Yet, the obstacles remain, in the form of rules and regulations that inhibit trade, and in the lack of private-sector initiatives that would surmount governmental foot dragging. In the end, it is the private sector—not of cial trade—that will boost incomes on both sides of the border. And the question remains: Will India and Pakistan see the advantage of opening borders as being mutually beneficial?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, and East Asia