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1. Democracy and the ‘citizen-soldier’ military: The case of Kosovo and Israel

Author:
Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The intention of Kosovo’s government to establish a ‘citizen-soldier’ military creates an opportunity to do the ‘right thing from the beginning’—the current comparative study elaborates on the steps that have to be taken in order to establish a military in a young and small democratic state, with a strong normative base, that will provide confidence in the defence system alongside constructive socialisation. The structure of constitutional analysis serves as a base for in-depth discussion concerning the military service model in democratic states. The analysis is followed by an elaboration on the ‘citizen-soldier’ military model in the context of cultural aspects and the connection to the constitutional base, combined with an analysis of Israel’s and Kosovo’s social–cultural features, security challenges, and geo-strategic situations, similarities and opportunities regarding implementation of a military model. The study reveals that in democratic states, the ‘citizen-soldier’ model has to be anchored in the culture and in the constitution in order to prevent social conflicts concerning rights and duties, establishing a constructive social platform that empowers national resilience alongside defensive abilities. Kosovo’s success in implementing a ‘citizen-soldier’ model is built on the adoption of positive ways of social integration using Israel’s experience while minimising its weaknesses: the existence of constitutional definitions that will balance civilians’ rights and duties in the context of military duty, harnessing the education system as a socialisation agent, and establishment of a reserve military force that will be anchored in national duty, in the security view and the social view.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:
Israel and Kosovo

2. Defence expenditure and public debt in Greece: A non-linear relationship

Author:
Ioanna Bardakas, Dimitris Doulos, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to consider and evaluate the widely–used argument attributing the growth of the public debt of Greece in recent decades to the country’s defence expenditure. We employ a two-equation model that focuses on the determinants of the military debt and how this has affected the public debt. The source of our military debt data is the Hellenic General Accounting Office, an option taken to cope with confidentiality issues. Finally, we insist on focusing on the expenditure on defence equipment imports rather than the total defence spending that the literature mostly covers, for reasons extensively analysed. Our methodology firstly assumes a linear relationship between military debt and public debt. We solve the system using 3SLS to obtain consistent and efficient estimates to derive interesting policy implications. The employment of a non-linear quadratic form not previously adopted proves to be superior in terms of performance and reveals the complexity of the above relationship. These point to the conclusion that the defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties have not had a decisive impact on the public debt of Greece. The defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties represent a very low percentage of the total public debt of Greece. Moreover, these are considered to be an investment activity rather than consumer spending, which has been acknowledged in the literature as the primary cause of Greece’s high indebtedness and the ensuing economic crisis.
Topic:
Security, Public Debt, Public Spending, Economic Security, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

3. Conclusions from the use of aviation in the first half of the first year of the Ukrainian-Russian war

Author:
Sylwester Lubiejewski
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of the article is to suggest a desirable direction in which the Polish air force, and indeed the air forces of other NATO countries, should develop so that they are better prepared for the challenges identified in the conflict in Ukraine so far. In order to achieve the aim of the research and answer the formulated research question, the collection and qualitative analysis of texts and documents, observation and interviewing took place. In order to have the ability to deter and gain air superiority during a defensive operation, the Polish air force, and air forces of other NATO countries, should have a large resource of fighter, multi-role, and fighter-bomber aircraft. An object-oriented multi-layer air defence of every military airfield needs to be organised and certain roads reconstructed as runways in the event of war. In turn, helicopter aviation units should be able to organise forward arming and refuelling points for helicopters to effectively support land forces. Attack helicopters should also have integrated fire systems that allow them to attack from a distance beyond the range of man-portable air-defence systems. All warplanes should be equipped with proven and modern systems of active and passive self-defence to make them less susceptible to enemy influence. To sum up, in light of the war in Ukraine, the article explains what aviation equipment is necessary and what actions should be taken to increase both Polish air force’s ability and other NATO air forces’ ability to perform tasks during wartime.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Air Force, Aviation, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

4. Defensive lawfare and deterrence: Analysis of Latvia’s approach to legal bases in the context of hybrid warfare (2014-2022)

Author:
Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Following the ‘hybrid form’ of Russian aggression in Ukraine that emerged in 2014, the period after February 24th, 2022 is referred to as the ‘new reality’. Hence, the question that needs to be addressed is how to deter and prevent Russian aggression of this kind. The national legal framework against the aggressor is a part of the deterrence policy and can be construed as defensive lawfare. Focusing on Latvia, the aim of the paper is to analyse defensive lawfare and deterrence in the context of hybrid warfare. The following research question has been identified: What is Latvia’s approach to establishing defensive lawfare in terms of hybrid warfare? For the empirical analysis, the chronological framework has been set from 2014 to 2022. To complete the empirical analysis of the present paper, both qualitative and quantitative research has been implemented comprising document analysis and semi-structured interviews, as well as content analysis, respectively. The improvement of a regulatory base and the development of deterrence, whilst using regulatory acts, is an element of deterrence and a way to act legally. The law can be used as a weapon. Lawfare, a concept with three definitions, has two forms: defensive a nd offensive. Latvia’s legal base includes a regulation to overcome hybrid threats and to implement a broad-spectrum of defence measures. Latvia’s regulatory framework is designed for defence purposes, whilst also being a way of promoting deterrence. Decision makers must be able to manoeuvre with the powers assigned to them.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Hybrid Warfare, Lawfare, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Latvia, and Baltic States

5. Systemic Operational Design – a study in failed concept

Author:
Łukasz Przybyło
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
One of the many reasons for the failure of the Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) in the Second Lebanon War was the concept of Systemic Operational Design (SOD), translated into de facto military doctrine. The story of the rise and fall of the SOD idea is a warning sign for all militaries faced with “modern” and “fashionable” ideas. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe and evaluate the Systemic Operational Design created and introduced into the IDF by Brigadier General Shimon Naveh and the Operational Theory Research Institute (OTRI). The study is based on the literature created by the State of Israel, the IDF, and its main proponent Shimon Naveh, as well as other militaries (mainly the US Army). This theoretical background is confronted with the IDF’s operations during the Second Lebanon War of 2006 and their effects on the war’s outcome. The over intellectualised, ambiguous, and not properly structured concept of the SOD, introduced as the IDF’s doctrine and approach to operations, led to military failure (which also had more root causes) in Lebanon. A study of the SOD failure should lead to a careful approach being taken to all new military concepts and ideas. Both change and continuation need to be properly balanced and evaluated, while enhanced military effectiveness could be of great value. At the same time, the impact of concepts which are not well anchored in military science/history and untested, like the SOD, could be devastating for militaries.
Topic:
International Security, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Military, and 2006 Lebanon War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

6. Trojan spoofing: A threat to critical infrastructure

Author:
Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article explores the phenomenon of location spoofing—where the spoofer is able to “teleport” systems in and out of defined locations, either for the purpose of infiltration into no-go zones or for the “teleportation” out of real, defined zones in the physical world. The research relied on a qualitative methodology, utilising academic research findings, media reports, hacker demonstrations, and secondary data from these sources, to situate the spoofing threat in the context of international security. This conceptual, argumentative essay finds that signal spoofing, the methods of which can be followed via online scripts, allows users the ability to overcome geographically defined territorial restrictions. This, as this article finds, allows violent actors to weaponise systems, such as unmanned aerial systems, potentially leading to the escalation of political tensions in extreme but unfortunately ever-frequent episodes. The article concludes that, while Trojan spoofing (in particular) poses a real and an existential threat to international security, it is only a sum-of-all parts in considering other threats to critical functions in society. If geofences are used as a single point of security to protect assets against hostile actors, managers need to be aware of the vulnerability of intrusion and the resulting geopolitical consequences.
Topic:
International Security, Cybersecurity, Information Warfare, Military, GPS, and Deception
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Implications of the war in Ukraine for the strategic communication system of the Polish Ministry of National Defence

Author:
Agnieszka Glapiak
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The paper explores the evolving role of strategic communication at the operations centre of the Minister of National Defence in Poland, particularly in the period leading up to and during the Russian Federation’s military aggression against Ukraine. The study investigates both proactive communication initiatives and reactive communication in response to citizens’ needs. Our research methodology primarily involved analysing official Polish national defence documents and comparing findings from studies conducted before and during the war in Ukraine. The results show that the conflict had a profound influence on the MOD’s strategic communication, emphasising the pivotal role of the Operations Centre of the Minister of National Defence. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the need for a comprehensive communication approach that encompasses both domestic and international audiences, spanning traditional and social media.
Topic:
Security, Communications, Disinformation, Military, Information, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

8. Integrating Earth observation IMINT with OSINT data to create added-value multisource intelligence information: A case study of the Ukraine–Russia war

Author:
Ioannis Kotaridis and Georgios Benekos
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 heralded a new “social media war” era. This “hybrid warfare” extends beyond the military landscape and includes attacks in cyberspace and fake news with the aim of destabilising governments. The goal of this paper is to present a high-level of architecture based on imagery intelligence (IMINT) and geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) using geographic datasets and state-of-the-art methods. Integration with intelligence information (like Open-Source Intelligence [OSINT]) produces multiintelligent knowledge for security and defence decision-making end users. The results depict a harmonious and creative collaboration between IMINT, OSINT, and GEOINT. OSINT data helps to identify and describe the meteorological conditions that are present, contributing to the procedure’s responsiveness. Weather and dense cloud cover above Ukraine poses a challenge for optical imaging satellites, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor satellites can operate at night and overcome the problem. We carried out OSINT and IMINT analysis, monitoring the situation shortly after the invasion. OSINT data helped in the choice of an appropriate area of interest. Using the right Earth observation satellite system and artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms is the best way to keep an eye on many different sites over long periods, send out alerts about unusual activity, and find new places where incoherent changes might be happening.
Topic:
International Security, Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid Warfare, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9. Measuring economic resilience for the CEE and Black Sea countries in the framework of comprehensive defense

Author:
Maria Constantinescu
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main research objective of this paper is to identify key factors influencing economic resilience from the perspective of comprehensive defence. This involves developing a composite economic resilience index (Ericda) that outlines the relative economic resilience of countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea regions, within the comprehensive defence framework. The paper employs qualitative research methods, focusing on an analysis of specialist literature pertaining to economic resilience. Quantitative methods are also used for developing the Economic Resilience Index from the Comprehensive Approach to Defence (Ericda) perspective. This includes using data on selected resilience indicators in Central and the Eastern European and Black Sea region countries to generate rankings. The results of the study reveal strong positive correlations between the economic resilience index and various factors, such as logistics and infrastructure, economic complexity, foreign trade vulnerabilities and dependence, economic stability and development, governance effectiveness, military, and human capital. Additionally, a negative correlation was observed with the resilience index. The research findings suggest that to ensure effective comprehensive defence, isolated measures targeting individual pillars are inadequate. Economic resilience requires a collaborative approach, extending beyond the purview of the finance ministry and involving a broader range of stakeholders.
Topic:
Economics, International Security, Resilience, Economic Security, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

10. Net spills among NATO allies: Theory and empirical evidence from dynamic quantile connectedness

Author:
Panagiotis Palaios, Anna Triantafillou, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The paper draws on the economic theory of alliances to stress the importance of considering both benefits and costs arising from the 0interaction between member states of a military alliance in terms of defence expenditure on equipment. We expand the theory of alliances to incorporate the spills that stem from the obligations of each ally by introducing the notion of spill-outs and net spills, the latter measured as the difference between spill-in and spill-out effects. To assess the net spills contribution of each of the members to the alliance, we test for empirical evidence of net spills among a group of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, applying time-varying Dynamic Quantile Connectedness analysis. The results that stem from our model considering the cost of spill-outs suggest that there are strong incentives among the allies for free-riding behaviour. In line with our theoretical model, our empirical analysis shows that it is only during crisis period that NATO member-states contribute actively to the alliance, something that has become increasingly clear since the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
NATO, International Security, Alliance, Economic Security, Defense Spending, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and North America