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1. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Full-Scale War to Conflict Resolution and Post-War Recovery

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, Makysm Bielawski, V. Zamiatin, and Oleksiy Melnyk
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
For 570 days, Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war against the russian aggressor, defending its freedom, independence and very right to exist. During this time, our country has suffered losses and destruction on a scale unimaginable on the European continent after the World War II. Towns and villages wrecked to the ground, tens of thousands dead, artificially created environmental disasters and constant nuclear blackmail, the deportation of Ukrainian children – an outright act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, systematic destruction of the country’s energy, transport and agricultural infrastructure, the war against the civilian population, the war-induced migration and demographic crisis are just a few points in the long list of disasters caused by russian aggression.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)

Author:
M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

3. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

4. Ukraine's European Integration: Internal Factors and External Influences

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, making an ultimate choice over its integration path is a sensitive and highly pressing issue for Ukraine. In November 2013, the 3rd summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius is to see the signing of the Association Agreement, which aims for political association and economic integration, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area. This is a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels based on strategic perspective. In fact, the Agreement will mark the start of implementing the far-reaching reforms in different sectors of domestic life in Ukraine designed to draw the country closer to meeting the standards of a state-candidate for accession to the EU. Apparently, the success of the Agreement remains conditional on joint efforts on behalf of the authorities, opposition, civil institutions, and Ukrainian society in general. One should keep in mind that the signing of the Agreement will give a start to the long process of its ratification by national parliaments of the EU countries. However, there exists a real opportunity to ensure practical implementation of some items of the document in the near future, which will give an impetus to strengthening contacts between Kyiv and Brussels and promote internal transformations in Ukraine. If the document is not signed or implemented too slowly and inconsistently, as was the case with prior arrangements with the EU, Ukraine will lose its historic opportunity. Meanwhile, the Customs Union countries (first of all, Russia) step up efforts to have Ukraine join that alliance, and later – the Eurasian Economic Union. That said, the Customs Union leaders see the Memorandum of Deeper Integration between Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed on 31 May 2013, as the first step on the road to Ukraine’s Eurasian integration. The two processes – preparations for signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on the one hand, and new attempts of Russia to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration on the other – happen to coincide in time. At that, representatives of both the EU and the Customs Union speak of a need for a clear choice – Ukraine has to either sign the Agreement of Association with the EU, or join the Customs Union. Integration projects of Brussels and Moscow in the post-Soviet space differ in nature, substance and goals. Russia, while trying to create a regional structure counterbalancing the EU on the European continent, uses “energy incentives” to seduce Ukraine. At that, no attention has been paid to ensuring democratic nature of the country’s development. For Brussels, proper democracy, civil society, rule of law, independent judicial system and respect for human rights and freedoms have always played a decisive role in bringing Ukraine closer to European integration. Choosing between two integration lines means choosing between different basic and fundamental values, between two different models of Ukraine’s further development. Ukraine either joins the EU uniting European countries on the basis of European norms, rules and standards, or becomes a member of a union of post-Soviet states with transitional economies and numerous problems with democracy. Ukraine’s European choice is strongly influenced by a number of internal and external factors. The internal factors hindering Ukraine’s movement towards the EU include the practice of selective justice, weak electoral legislation, lack of real anti-corruption efforts, and slow pace of reforms envisaged by the Association Agenda. Solving these problems has been prioritised by the EU. The same was indicated in the conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers (10 December 2012) and the so-called “Füle list”, released later. The external factors include strong geopolitical influence exerted on Ukraine by both the EU and Russia. Today, this influence is growing with Moscow and Brussels showing strong willingness to see Ukraine join their integration projects. The analysis of the situation cited in this report shows that the European way of development best of all goes in line with national interests of Ukraine. It is also evident that Ukraine’s European choice should not be an alternative to the development of mutually advantageous, equal and transparent relations in different sectors with countries of the Customs Union, first of all – Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

5. Swedish model of social and economic development

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Although Ukraine and Sweden have had close historic ties and maintain an active dialogue now, Ukrainians still little know of that Nordic country. It remains a secret for many our compatriots, what prompted the two geographically remote nations to ally 300 years ago, when the fate of our independence was decided, and to be partners today, when the fate of Ukraine’s European future is at stake. Answers to those questions may be found in both rational and irrational domains, but the undisputed fact is that Ukraine and Sweden are united by something more than the national colours.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Sweden

6. Present-day challenges to Ukraine’s security

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the global security environment saw deep changes that prompted the conclusion of a deficit of security on all levels and speculations of a new Cold War. So-called “new threats” (along with reinstitution of “old” ones) acquired an integral character and demonstrated an extreme speed of spread to entire regions and the whole world. Meanwhile, difficult processes associated with emergence of new centres of influence, along with changes in the list of the leading world actors, led to restoration and toughening of geopolitical competition and brought about aggravation of “frozen” conflicts and emergence of new conflict areas, including in the Euro-Atlantic space. Trends of the decade brought growth of Russia’s ambitions of regional and global leadership and creation of a “privileged” area of its interests in the post-Soviet space. To push its position, Moscow resorted to economic pressure, used energy resources as a tool of foreign policy, “encouraged interest” of separate states and their officials in supporting its positions and initiatives, including those concerning third parties. All this caused tension in the relations between Russia and the EU, USA and NATO. The security sector saw ever hotter disputes about NATO enlargement, deployment of ABM elements in Europe, the Balkan events, the military campaign in Afghanistan, etc; on the European side, the problem of Russia joining the European Energy Charter and its Treaty, the Eastern Partnership initiative, plans of joint participation in reconstruction of the Ukrainian gas transportation system came to the forefront. Those processes not only caused a new confrontation between Russia and the West but also revealed the lack of unity between the USA and the EU, within the EU and NATO on many security issues, including building relations with Russia. That was largely prompted by difficult internal processes, related: in the EU – with its expansion and structural and institutional changes under the Lisbon Treaty, in NATO – with problems of functional, structural and resource sufficiency and different opinions as to the ways and goals of the Alliance transformation. Finally, Russia’s suspension of the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, legislative establishment of possible use of its Armed Forces outside Russian borders and its role in the Caucasian conflict in August 2008 questioned the effectiveness of the international European and the whole Euro-Atlantic security system, resting on the Helsinki agreements, arrangements and guarantees of 1990s. Ukraine found itself in an especially vulnerable situation, from the security viewpoint.3
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine