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1. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)

Author:
M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Prospects of Ukrainian-Russian Relations

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has continued since February 2014. To date, the multiple efforts of international diplomacy, unfortunately, have not resulted either in settlement or even in a “freeze” of the situation in eastern Ukraine. The previous Minsk Agreements adopted in September 2014 (Minsk Protocol and Minsk Memorandum) were disrupted and Russian aggression in Donbas continued. On 12 February 2015, the presidents of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia agreed on a new document, “Package of Measures for Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, which envisaged conflict settlement by the end of 2015. However, implementation of these measures was postponed to 2016 and, given the course of events, has actually become a process which is difficult to forecast and which is indefinite in time.1 It should be noted that on the one hand, the situation in eastern Ukraine has not undergone significant changes for the better – hostilities are ongoing. There are persistent fundamental differences in the positions of the two sides, Ukraine and Russia, on conflict resolution. (In particular, implementation of the Minsk Agreements in line with the Russian scenario threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Ukraine and destroy its statehood.) On the other hand, the international situation is rapidly changing; we see further escalation of international terrorism (the terrorist attacks in Paris), the “migration crisis” in the EU, Russia’s military intervention in Syria, and the gaining momentum of the acute conflict of Moscow and Ankara. This dulls the perception of events in Donbas on the part of the international community, renders these events a somewhat “background” nature in the West, and urges attempts to “freeze” the situation there at any cost, including at the expense of Ukraine’s own interests. Meanwhile, Russia proceeds with military expansion in Donbas, aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, and now there is no reason to expect a change for the better in the Kremlin’s policy. Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (which has a regional and global dimension) acquires a long-term nature with recurrent escalation and unpredictable consequences. Russian aggression – the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine – has entailed profound changes in bilateral relations: (а) the legal framework of Kyiv and Moscow relations has been destroyed; (b) institutional mechanisms of state-to-state relations have been destroyed; (c) contacts at the highest level have become impossible, political and diplomatic relations have become confrontational; (d) Ukraine has suffered huge human, economic, and territorial losses; (e) an unprecedented curtailment of economic cooperation has taken place; (f) deep alienation between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia has emerged. The previous official ideology of “strategic partnership”, “fraternal peoples”, and “neighbourliness”, embedded in many joint agreements, has lost its sense.2 A new political-ideological reality has emerged in the relations between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, a new assessment and review of the nature, ideology, and general institutional system of relations with Russia in key areas (politics, security, economy, energy, humanitarian sphere, etc.) is required, given that the main threat to Ukrainian statehood is the current government in place in the Russian Federation. There is a need to design a new conceptual model of coexistence with Putin’s Russia, which would reflect current realities and prospects of bilateral relations and would take into account the position of Western partner countries and international organisations. However, it is important to keep in mind at least two things. First, one should clearly distinguish the current Putin’s regime and the country of Russia as it is and its society. Second, in rebuffing Russian aggression, a strategic goal should be seen – to restore confidence and interest of the societies of both countries in peaceful coexistence and respect the right of each state to determine the state system in the country and its civilisation development vector.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

4. Ukraine-Russia Relations in the Energy Sector: Status, Recent Development Trends, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Separation of Ukraine-Russia bilateral relations in the energy sector is rather conventional, since they objectively fit into the relations of both countries with a third party – first of all, countries of Europe (in particular, the EU) as consumers of energy resources transported across the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, both from the viewpoint of the process chain (producer – transit state – consumer) and from the economy viewpoint (seller – provider of transportation services – buyer) those relations should be viewed in a trilateral format.1 More than that, it may be argued that problems stockpiled in that sector of relations between Ukraine and Russia and in Europe in general may be solved solely in such trilateral format.2 On the other hand, since early 2000s Russia has been insistently pursuing a policy translating relations with partners in the energy sector into a bilateral format where it is usually stronger and uses that advantage to defend and promote its interests and/or the interests of its state monopolies and separate financial-industrial groups. That is why there are grounds to view the Ukraine-Russia relations in the energy sector as bilateral, but with account of presence of a third party there, first of all, the EU, as Ukraine declares its integration in it and is now engaged in formulation of common norms and rules of the European energy markets. This section briefly outlines interim results and problems of the Ukraine-Russia relations in the oil, gas and nuclear sectors – more interrelated and interdependent than other domains of the energy sector.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

5. Swedish model of social and economic development

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Although Ukraine and Sweden have had close historic ties and maintain an active dialogue now, Ukrainians still little know of that Nordic country. It remains a secret for many our compatriots, what prompted the two geographically remote nations to ally 300 years ago, when the fate of our independence was decided, and to be partners today, when the fate of Ukraine’s European future is at stake. Answers to those questions may be found in both rational and irrational domains, but the undisputed fact is that Ukraine and Sweden are united by something more than the national colours.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Sweden

6. Ukraine-Russia: from crisis – to effective partnership

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, the Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical state. Conflicts are on the rise in the key fields of cooperation – political, socio-economic, humanitarian. A number of problems complicating bilateral contacts actually remain “frozen”. The parties’ positions divided on a number of key foreign policy issues, the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine and Russia are totally different. The process of estrangement of the state and political elites of the two countries goes on, while the political-diplomatic dialogue acquired numerous traits of mutual accusations and demarches. The intensity of bilateral contacts between representatives of the political establishment, expert communities, business circles, academic communities and the public notably goes down. Numerous declarations of Kyiv and Moscow of “normalisation, rationalisation, de-politicisation” of relations did not lead to success. Probably, the most alarming is that the recent years saw deterioration of relations between citizens of the two countries. Sociologists record growth of estrangement, prejudice, enmity. This trend witnesses the threat of breakup of traditional socio-cultural ties of the two countries. Such processes and trends give grounds to note a systemic crisis in the Ukraine-Russia partnership, unreadiness of the parties for positive reformatting of cooperation. The atmosphere of relations was strongly undermined by the conflict in the Caucasus (August 2008) that affected the security architecture on the regional and global scale, the Ukraine-Russia “gas war” of January 2009, which involved countries of the European continent. Escalation of conflicts poses a double-edged threat, devaluates “geopolitical assets” of both countries. For Russia, there is a threat of staying an unpopular regional power player overburdened by the post-imperial syndrome, with inadequate claims of control of the post-Soviet space. For Ukraine – a threat of staying in a state of uncertainty, transition, in the “grey zone” of collision of interests of the West and East. Unfortunately, there are grounds to suggest that in the near future, the character of bilateral relations will not fundamentally change. Another “unfriendly pause” arose in the dialogue of Kyiv and Moscow, most probably, in connection with the forthcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. What is also evident is that such state of affairs does not meet the national interests of both Ukraine and Russia, aggravates the regional situation, complicates contacts of the two countries with the European community, NATO, and the USA. There is no alternative to establishment of good-neighbourly partnership between Ukraine and Russia. Such partnership should rest on the European norms and rules, parity and mutual benefit, transparency, mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, consideration of each other’s interests,
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine