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12. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia
- Author:
- Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
13. Dancing on the grid: electricity crises, manufacturing energy vulnerability, and jobs in South Africa
- Author:
- Gideon Ndubuisi, Elvis Korku Avenyo, and Rex Asiama
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for the period between 1993 and 2021 to develop a sub-sector energy vulnerability index. Second, we employ the self-constructed energy vulnerability index in a flexible empirical framework to examine the effect of the electricity crises on manufacturing sector jobs in the country. We find that energy vulnerability has a high degree of heterogeneity across manufacturing sub-sectors, highlighting cross-sector differences in the level of exposure and susceptibility to the energy-related crises. Results from the empirical analysis, on the other hand, suggest that electricity crises are associated with significant job destruction, with this adverse effect severe for manufacturing sectors with higher energy vulnerability intensity. The severity of this adverse effect holds irrespective of the nature of jobs, whether formal or informal.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Manufacturing, Electricity, Vulnerability, and Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
14. Who controls the past controls the future * How Russia uses history for cognitive warfare
- Author:
- Daniel Shultz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Russia views controlling perceptions about history as a strategic priority, for domestic regime security and external influence. Kinetic military operations, including the invasion of Ukraine, are designed to support this cognitive objective. Understanding adversary cognitive objectives provides strategic indicators and warnings of intent, and identifies critical cognitive vulnerabilities for allied joint targeting.
- Topic:
- NATO, History, Vulnerability, Russia-Ukraine War, and Cognitive Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
15. Challenges and recommendations for the Amazon – Brazil
- Author:
- Renata Avelar Giannini and Camila Nadalini de Godoy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- In the Amazon, women face a dual challenge. On one side, there are social expectations regarding their role in society; on the other, the risks and vulnerabilities that the multiplicity of identities they belong to can create. These expectations significantly impact how they see and face the challenges that surround them. At the same time, these identities related to the regional context they live in and other social markers – such as age, social class, sexual orientation, gender identity,race, ethnicity, religion, among others – add unique experiences and specific risks. The collection of experiences of these women cannot, therefore, be generalized, placing them in a key position to propose solutions. This work aims to identify the vision of Amazonian women on their territory and its challenges, as well as highlight the solutions they propose, considering their peculiarities and diversity. This study, conducted by the Igarapé Institute in collaboration with Amazonian defenders, sought to understand the perspective of Amazonian women concerning their territory, challenges, and the solutions they propose, recognizing their unique experiences and diversity. The study shed light on the daily violence that has already victimized 765 women in conflicts in the Brazilian Amazon over the past decade. The report is divided into four parts. In the first part, we address the context of the Brazilian Amazon, where this research was conducted. In the second part, we explain the methodology used for this listening process. In the third part, we highlight the risks and challenges identified by the defenders who participated in the research. Finally, we describe the solutions suggested by these same women, along with recommendations on how the incorporation of a gender perspective into discussions about sustainable development in the region is essential for navigating the context of climate change and promoting peace and stability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Women, Sustainability, Vulnerability, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin
16. Accounting for Non Economic Loss & Damage changes perspective of L&D as a whole
- Author:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Abstract:
- Adverse impacts induced by climate change is already occurring and manifesting in the form of losses and damages which are expected to accelerate as climate change worsens and tipping points in eccological systems are reached. Failure to address climate-driven loss can trap populations in a state of vulnerability. Such kinds of losses and damages can be either economic or non-economic in nature. Economic losses and damages can be measured using market prices. In contrast, non-economic loss and damage (or ‘NELD’) refers to a broad range of harmful impacts that are not so easily quantified, especially in financial terms. This makes it difficult to evaluate the non economic nature and the intensity of the losses and damages faced by frontline communities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Vulnerability, and Loss and Damage (L&D)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. Engaging China on Strategic Stability and Mutual Vulnerability
- Author:
- George Perkovich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The United States and Chinese governments, for the foreseeable future, will have the resources to keep each other’s societies vulnerable to nuclear mass destruction. If these governments are not self-destructive, they will want to keep their competition from escalating into armed conflict that could lead to nuclear war. The constructs of strategic stability and mutual vulnerability can help significantly if both governments embrace them and interpret them similarly or even if the leaders of the two countries accurately understand how they differ in their perspectives on them. Unfortunately, to date, on these issues the United States and China are like a quarrelling married couple who tried therapy for one or two appointments, found it dissatisfying, and then alternated in making excuses for not trying again, perhaps with a different therapist or format. Each says they have tried and the other doesn’t listen or understand. Both suspect that the other isn’t saying what they really feel or want; what they really feel is hostility and distrust and what they really want is to get richer and more powerful without being hassled or attacked. It would be easier if they could just go their separate ways, but the property and wealth they depend on will be lost (or at least severely diminished) if they split up or do each other harm. This paper suggests that U.S. and allied interests require persistence in inviting China to dialogue on strategic stability; to demonstrate goodwill, the United States should acknowledge mutual vulnerability as a fact and necessary policy. The need for both moves is reflected in the fact that neither government has defined what it might mean by stability or mutual vulnerability. To help test intentions and prompt harder thinking, the paper plays the role of therapist and offers definitions of both concepts—strategic stability and mutual vulnerability—so that the two sides can critique them more freely and without recrimination. These definitions are broader and deeper than usual, reflecting the growing problem of managing escalation of conventional conflict to nuclear war, the scenario that drives U.S. and Chinese concerns and military posturing. Further, broader definitions are necessary to comprehend the dangers stemming from the entanglement of conventional, cyber, and nuclear weapons and command and control systems. The paper then sketches four benefits of declaring mutual vulnerability, contrary to opponents of the idea, before discussing steps that the United States and China could subsequently take to reflect and build each other’s confidence in such a policy. Finally, if perceived U.S. requirements in the future will be greater than the arsenal needed to deter or defeat Russia or China alone, how will Russia and China be persuaded not to try to build up to balance the additional U.S. force? In other words, if the United States is in two separate but interacting arms races (and deterrence relationships), how could each opponent (China and Russia) be persuaded to negotiate limits on their arsenal lower than the total the United States would insist on possessing to deter two nuclear opponents? Answers to these questions will affect strategic stability and mutual vulnerability of all parties but will take a long time to develop. To begin the process, the paper suggests asking Chinese leaders whether their silence on Putin’s nuclear first-use threats means that China has changed its own policy on nuclear use or that it never took a no-first-use policy seriously in the first place. Is China concerned that the capabilities that the United States and its allies may develop to strengthen defenses against Russia could be used against China too, and if so, might arms control be a wiser approach? Ultimately, the paper suggests that if China and the United States can sustain a process of serious dialogue, they will keep their relationship from worsening even if they cannot formally restrain their competition. And if dialogue leads one to ask the other for deeds to demonstrate goodwill, the paper has suggested some such deeds that could be undertaken with no security hazard and only slight political risk. No one should have the illusion that happiness is in this couple’s future. All this work would be to allow a nonviolent cohabitation that is better than the alternative of destitute divorce or murder-suicide.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Stability, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
18. US-China Mutual Vulnerability: Perspectives on the Debate
- Author:
- David Santoro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The study US-China Mutual Vulnerability: Perspectives on the Debate analyzes the mutual vulnerability question in US-China strategic nuclear relations. It asks whether the United States should acknowledge mutual vulnerability with China and, if so, how and under what conditions it should do so. The goal is not to give a yes-or-no answer but to provide a comprehensive examination of the issue to better understand the benefits, costs, and risks associated with various options. The study includes chapters by US, Japanese, South Korean, Australian, and Chinese scholars.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Competition, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
19. Compound Gender-Climate-Security Threats and Vulnerabilities within the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Maryruth Belsey Priebe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In 2021, signs of climate change intensification were evident in unprecedented wildfires, floods, cyclones, landslides, suggesting that climate-security threats are intensifying as well. Home to several rising powers and strategic trading partners, the Indo-Pacific is a vital region for the United States, yet it is one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of climate threats. A McKinsey report states that, “Asia stands out as being more exposed to physical climate risk than other parts of the world in the absence of adaptation and mitigation.”[1] Other research has shown that Asian countries have the highest numbers of people exposed to climate hazards such as floods, droughts, and storms.[2] Climate change is an emerging security risk, and one that deserves greater study given the significant diversity of security and climate scenarios. In particular, the role of women as sources of climate security intelligence has been understudied. This paper aims to correct that oversight and assess which countries within the Indo-Pacific have the greatest combined gender-climate-security risk factors and why. A detailed breakdown of data from several indices related to fragility, gender inequality, conflict, and climate change is summarized for all countries within the area covered by the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Table 1. Using this data, this paper examines in greater depth Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam—due to their diversity in environmental conditions and political conditions—to determine their specific gender-climate-security challenges. This paper begins with an overview of a gender-climate-security framework, provides focus country assessments, examines US INDOPACOM’s greatest vulnerabilities, and explores ways in which women may act as bellwethers of emerging climate-related conflicts if meaningfully and consistently consulted.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Indo-Pacific
20. Climate Change Vulnerability and Women's Land Rights: The Case of Arua District
- Author:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Abstract:
- Findings of this study show that Arua district is very vulnerable to climate change impact risk. The vulnerability and effects of different climate hazards and land issues vary with social groups and livelihood activities. The key climate hazards identified were drought, erratic weather patterns as well as climate induced pests and diseases. The land rights issues included lack of: (1) land ownership, (2) control over land, and (3) knowledge on land rights. Smallholder farmers were associated with the highest level of exposure to drought, floods, erratic weather patterns as well as climate induced pests and diseases like maize streak, cassava mosaic/brown streak, ground nuts rosette, among others. Women were particularly more affected by drought than other groups. The nature and degree of exposure to these hazards was worse for women/people with disabilities and those living with HIV/ AIDs because of marginalisation and inherent physical inabilities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Women, Land Rights, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
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