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272. The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security
- Author:
- Bartosz Kozicki, Jaroslaw Zelkowski, Szymon Mitkow, and Mariusz Gointarczyk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
273. The United States in India's Strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region Since 2014
- Author:
- Jakub Zajaczkowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The article's objective is to analyze the main assumptions of India's strategy in the Indo-Pacific region and define the role of the US in it. The time frame of the article is determined by the assumption of power in India in 2014 by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as the opening of a new stage of the US-led Indo-Pacific rebalancing strategy, which followed China's initiation in 2013 of its Belt and Road Initiative (previously known as the One Belt One Road project). The article seeks to answer the following main research question: What role has India attributed to the United States in its Indo-Pacific strategy since 2014? It hypothesizes that the United States has assumed an increasingly significant role in India's regional strategy over the past seven years, but not to the extent of a formal alliance, only approaching at best the status of a strategic partnership. The theoretical framework used to analyze the case study of the US role in India's regional strategy is the category of institutional balancing and the assumptions of neoclassical realism. The choice of such research tools was determined by their explanatory value. Moreover, both models complement each other. Bearing the above in mind, the following structure of the article was adopted. The first part presents the general assumption of the analysis and the theoretical framework. The second discusses the evolution of India's approach to the US from 2014 to 2021, indicating the reasons for its change and reconstructing the role of the US in the Indian regional strategy, especially after 2020. The third part draws on the theoretical framework adopted in the article, i.e., the assumptions of institutional balancing and neoclassical realism, to offer conclusions that answer the main research questions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, North America, and United States of America
274. Joe Biden’s Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Change or Continuity. A Comparative Analysis
- Author:
- Marcin Grabowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The election of Joseph Biden for the office of the President of the United States has brought expectations of fundamental change in American foreign policy, including policy toward the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific region. As observed in the last few months, the reality has been more complex as definite changes in the US Indo-Pacific policy are not as visible as expected. It is especially in respect of the US policy toward China being more a continuation than a change from Donald Trump’s approach. Changes are rhetorical rather than actual policies. The situation is different in the case of alliances, as Joe Biden offers much more commitment to allies like Japan or South Korea. Also, multilateral dimensions (both regional and global) witness some – however still limited – change. The main goal is to make a comparative analysis of Joe Biden’s policy toward Asia, referring to the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Hence the strategies of pivot/re-balance toward the Asia of Obama, and the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy of Trump, will be examined. The analysis refers to the complex interdependence theory and the power transition theory. Methodologically, it is based on document analysis with comparative analysis.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
275. Facing A Strategic Endgame? The US and the Ambiguities of Strategic Thinking
- Author:
- Christopher Coker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The disastrous strategic failures by the US in the past 30 years can be explained by its failure to understand what strategy actually is and how ambiguity lies at its heart. As a result it has stumbled from crisis to crisis. There is no reason to think that it is any better placed under Biden to address the challenges of a ‘post-hegemonic’ world, argues Christopher Coker.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Crisis Management, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
276. The Interests of Turkey and Iran in Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges
- Author:
- Zurab Batiashvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In the summer of 2021, as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the balance of power in the country changed rapidly, and by August 15, the Taliban was able to capture the capital, Kabul, almost without a fight. On September 7, the Taliban formed a new "government" steered by Sharia Law. The Taliban also renamed the country, and, according to them, Afghanistan is now called the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." There are no women or members of the Shiite minority in the new government. Of the 33 members of the still-incomplete government, only three belong to ethnic minorities.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Taliban, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey
277. How to Move the Thailand-U.S. Strategic Alliance Forward
- Author:
- Darmp Sukontasap
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr. Darmp Sukontasap, Director, Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies, Rangsit University, Thailand, explains that “gone are the days when an alliance is viewed exclusively from the security and military perspective. The geopolitical realities of the 21st century require alliances to encompass agendas which are non-military, non-political and non-confrontational.”
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
278. Hegemony Without Leadership: Russia’s Strategy in the Post-Soviet Space
- Author:
- Kataryna Wolczuk
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- During its relatively long existence, the Soviet Union was viewed with a mix of awe and fear: awe, owing to its immense capacity to play economic catch-up and fear, as to how that capacity would be used. It was only after the state’s collapse that its true nature was exposed. Despite its immense—though extremely costly in terms of human suf- fering—achievements, the USSR turned out to be a house of cards: the speed with which its institutions collapsed left behind 15 ostensibly modern, yet mis-developed, states. Not one of them possessed the functional capacity or the expertise to address the manifest legacies of Soviet mis-development, which included an autocratic political culture, maladapted institutions, pervasive cor- ruption, and swaths of socioeconomic deprivation.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
279. Southeast Asia: The Next Frontier of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance
- Author:
- Tobias Harris, Abigail Bard, and Haneul Lee
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- As the United States and South Korea expand their bilateral cooperation beyond Northeast Asia, here are some ideas on how they can chart a path forward in Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
280. Strategic Reengagement in the Middle East
- Author:
- Brian Katulis and Peter Juul
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration can rebalance America’s policy in the Middle East through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and security cooperation—all while shifting away from direct military action.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America