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211. Russia’s quest for digital competitiveness: The role of private businesses in securing state interests

Author:
Andrey Indukaev
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Russian leadership prioritizes digital technology for the country’s security and international standing, but also for its economic and technological success and development. These diverse goals are closely intertwined within the logic of geoeconomic competition. The Russian authorities have increased their involvement in the ICT sector over the years and this has led to the hybridization of business and state logic of action at all levels. While the state has an upper hand in the relationship, this does not exclude the possibility of mutually beneficial partnerships. Moscow-based start-up NtechLab’s close collaboration with the city of Moscow is a case in point. For private businesses, the Russian state’s proximity is a mixed blessing that creates business development opportunities but also major risks. These risks limit Russia’s capacity to make digital technology the driver of modernization of its economy.
Topic:
Business, Private Sector, Strategic Interests, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

212. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, South China Sea, and Oceania

213. Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.
Topic:
Terrorism, ISIS, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

214. The Concept of “Forward Defence”: How Has the Syrian Crisis Shaped the Evolution of Iran’s Military Strategy?

Author:
Hamidreza Azizi
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Iranian officials have repeatedly referred to “forward defence” or “offensive defence” as the foundation of Iran’s military strategy. While the concept implies the inclusion of offensive aspects into Iran’s military strategy, which used to have an overwhelmingly defensive nature, it is also increasingly used to justify Iran’s military presence beyond its borders. This paper begins with a historical overview of the evolution of Iran’s military strategy, especially since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, showing how the concept of “deterrence” has become the cornerstone of its strategic military planning. It also discusses the crucial concept of “strategic depth”. Understanding these basic concepts is essential to be able to analyse the forward defence strategy, its main elements, and the domestic, regional, and international factors contributing to its formation. The paper also explores how the Syrian crisis has affected Iran’s military strategy in both conceptual and instrumental terms, leading to the formation and consolidation of the forward defence. Conceptually, Iran has justified its direct military presence far from its borders as necessary for confronting threats at their source before they reach Iranian territory. From an instrumental point of view, Iran’s involvement in the Syrian crisis has led to the development of Iran’s regional network of non-state allies and proxies, while adding a new layer to Iran’s deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. The main argument is that forward defence is not a new military doctrine but an evolved and updated form of “deterrence”. The paper also identifies Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programmes, its support for non-state actors across the region, and its focus on developing cyberwar capabilities as the main elements of its forward defence strategy, rooted in its perception that it is located in an increasingly insecure regional environment. Finally, the paper suggests that, for the United States to reach an agreement with Iran on these missile and regional issues, Washington and its regional allies must make reciprocal concessions to alleviate Iran’s sense of threat to its security and survival. In this case, Iran might be ready to make concessions on its allied and proxy militias in Yemen and Syria, although the more complex security and political situations in Iraq and Lebanon leave Tehran with comparably less leverage. While Iran is not expected to agree on considerably limiting its missile programme, an agreement on the range of its ballistic missiles could be achievable.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

215. Engaging with Africa Strategically

Author:
J. Peter Pham
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Like many of my contemporaries, both in the U.S. Foreign Service and in the wider international affairs community, who have worked on issues related to Africa since the end of the Cold War, I have seen Washington’s attentiveness to the states and peoples of the continent wax and wane over the years. For example, the probable nadir was in 1995, when the United States Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa published that year actually declared that America had “very little traditional strategic interest in Africa,” and the hitherto apogee was in 2014, when the first-ever U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit brought leaders from 50 of Africa’s 54 countries, including 37 heads of state, to our nation’s capital. While emphases and resources shifted from time to time and certainly between U.S. Presidents, there has largely been continuity of policy across Democratic and Republican Administrations, even including the last one. Notwithstanding unfortunate remarks attributed to President Donald Trump, I would argue that the Trump Administration’s Africa strategy achieved some significant advances in America’s approach to the continent, which the Biden Administration can harness to achieve some of its top priorities, including geopolitical competition and its ambitious climate-change agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

216. The Dragon's Footprints in the South Pole: A Study on Chinese Strategies and Actions in Antarctica and It's Implications for Brazil

Author:
Alana Camoca Goncalves de Oliveira
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The starting point of the article is the perception of the relevant role that China has been gaining in the international arena and the competitive and geopolitical pressure that it has been exercising in the most diverse international strategic theaters, including in the Polar Regions – Arctic and Antarctic. Considering the relevance of the Antarctic, the present article analyzes the Chinese strategy and its growing presence in the Antarctic and its implications for Brazil, using the theoretical frameworks of classical geopolitics, realism, and the theory of global power.
Topic:
Hegemony, Conflict, Land, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Antartica

217. The US Strategy for Short-Term Military Artificial Intelligence Development (2020-2030)

Author:
Daniel Barreiros and Italo Barreto Poty
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article analyses the US Department of Defense initiative formalized in the Summary of the 2018 Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy. The conclusion is that the US emphasis on the use of artificial intelligence to expand C4ISR capabilities (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance) and the denunciation of “ethical risks’’ involving Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are narrative strategies aimed at dealing in the short term with the inability of the US technology agencies to master autonomous military platform technologies and with the Russian resolve on the development of these lethal autonomous military platforms.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

218. The Importance of Middle East in Russian Foreign Policy

Author:
Sansz Rostamjabri, Seyed Javad EmamJomehzadeh, and Mahnaz Goodarzi
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The Soviet Union emerged as a superpower in the Cold War, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a new Russia was formed. To achieve the hegemony of power, Russia's security document was given priority. In the first term, Vladimir Putin focused on pragmatism and emphasized the power of domestic politics and the revival of the Russian economy. In his second term, Putin focused on the politics of realism to gain power on the international stage and return to what Moscow is interested in. In his second term, Putin pursued a political (power expansion), security (avoiding differences), and economic (strengthening Russia) view Middle East. Therefore, in this study, Russian foreign policy in the Middle East and its importance The question for this study is: what factors in Russian foreign policy made the Middle East region important for Russia? And the hypothesis for this question: Russia's concern about Islamic fundamentalism (security), economic and political reasons are among the most important factors in directing its foreign policy to the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Middle East

219. The Sino-Russian Geopolitics in Eurasia and China-USA Disputes: Asia Pacific Great Eurasia vs Indo-Pacific

Author:
Lucas Gualberto do Nascimento and Marcos Cordeiro Pires
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article aims to analyze the main elements and processes underway in Eurasia, involving three essential actors: the United States, Russia, and China. At first, it is emphasized the importance of Eurasia as a space that has historically influenced the hegemonic disputes between Great Powers. Then, Eurasia is analyzed as a space for development cooperation, presenting the intersections of the Chinese BRI and the Russian EAEU. Last, the US approach to China is addressed, specifically the Indo-Pacific strategy. We conclude that despite the intense pressure to contain the rise of China and Russia in Eurasia, rivaling both powers is not feasible. In the current path, it will boost the cooperation between two giants, China and Russia.
Topic:
Hegemony, Geopolitics, Conflict, Space, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

220. Failed Strategy? The Legacy of Barack Obama's Presidency in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Magdalena Lewicka and Michal Dahl
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to verify whether “a failed strategy”, a phrase commonly used in the literature, is an adequate description of Barack Obama’s legacy in the Middle East and North Africa. Based on the selected political manifestos and actions in the sphere of diplomacy, it has been proven that the Middle East and North Africa was not a priority to the decision-makers in Washington in the years 2009–2012, unlike in the years 2005–2008. However, although President Obama did not manage to implement most of his original plans, he achieved a few significant successes, the most notable of which is the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran. Authors seek to contextualize and explain Obama’s failures and successes, arguing that using the phrase “a failed strategy” does not reflect the complexity of the problems analyzed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America