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72. Assessment of the role of Caspian Basin in reducing of EU's oil dependence in the light of Russian Ukraine War
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European Union (EU) agreed to ban the overwhelming majority of Russian oil imports. Since the beginning of the invasion, the West decided to make Moscow pay economically for its aggression. Nevertheless, the decision aimed at the energy sector was quite challenging since the bloc relies on Russia for 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas.
- Topic:
- Oil, European Union, Imports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Caspian Sea
73. Amendments in the 2022 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Impacts and Perspectives
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- After the global pandemic, rising global demand, as well as the impact of geopolitical and military tensions, have led to a significant rise in the prices of major energy carriers in recent years. In the context of this pandemic, the recession in the country's economy in 2020 was replaced by the process of rapid economic recovery in 2021. The significant increase in oil prices in Azerbaijan had a positive effect on the nominal amount of GDP, although the increase in nominal GDP was mainly due to the oil sector, the real growth was possible almost due to non-oil sectors. The economic situation for the past period of the current year, the medium-term socio-economic forecast indicators, and the performance of budget revenues more than expected made it necessary to revise the state budget for 2022.
- Topic:
- Oil, Budget, GDP, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
74. FDI in Azerbaijan in 2021: Developments and Challenges
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Attracting foreign direct investment is now more important for Azerbaijan than ever before. Against the background of global uncertainty, the development of the non-oil sector and the diversification of the economy have become even more priority. On the other hand, there has been a decline in oil production in recent years, and even though high oil prices, the country's revenue from energy sales is lower than compared to the period before 2014.
- Topic:
- Oil, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
75. Assessment of Azerbaijani 2022 State Budget in Context of COVID-19
- Author:
- Narmina Gasimova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The budget plan for 2022 envisages the primary goals for insurance of the economic growth in the upcoming year, emphasizing economic diversification as one of the key targets. Followed by the restoration of the liberated territories and recovery after the negative impact of the pandemic, the plan outlines a detailed analysis of fiscal policy forecasted for the year. An overview of the planned budget envisages the reliance of the economy on oil reserves and transfers obtained throughout it. To that end, approaches for further policies cover the creation of a favorable environment for the gradual replacement of oil revenues with non-oil revenues.
- Topic:
- Oil, Budget, Economic Growth, Diversification, COVID-19, and Revenue
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
76. How Violent Conflicts Impact Women in Oil-Producing Niger Delta Communities: A Policy Perspective
- Author:
- Onyinyechukwu Durueke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy brief focuses on how women are affected by violent conflicts in the oilproducing Niger Delta region of Nigeria, including the coping mechanisms women victims adopt in conflict-affected communities. It draws on the findings of fieldbased research on the experiences of women in the aftermath of the military invasions of Odi1 and Gbaramatu,2 the leadership tussle in Rumuekpe,3 communal/ intra-ethnic conflict in K-Dere and B-Dere,4 communal conflict with a multinational oil corporation in Evwreni,5 and electoral violence in Imiringi. This brief also makes recommendations for addressing gender-based violence in the region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Women, Violence, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Niger
77. Govt Agrees Financial Aid as Houthis Target Oil Sector – The Yemen Review, November 2022
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Hopes faded that the expired truce would be revived in November, as Houthi authorities dug in their heels over maximalist demands that caused the talks’ collapse and then upped the ante with a series of drone and missile attacks on southern ports. The attacks crippled oil and gas revenues, though International Monetary Fund, Saudi, and Emirati support has given the government the lifeline it needs for now. Following the international financial agreements, the government-run Central Bank of Yemen in Aden moved to increase its oversight of banking data. Though there has been no return to full-scale war, intense if low-level clashes were seen in Taiz, Lahj, and Hudaydah. Reports persisted of back-channel Houthi-Saudi talks, but they appear to have stalled for now over Houthi demands for salary payments. The talks could become problematic for the government if they go beyond the question of the truce and extend to a unilateral settlement, which would be contrary to its interests. Divisions continued to wrack the Presidential Leadership Council, whose head Rashad al-Alimi was the sole member to spend significant time in Aden when he returned in early December after a regional tour that included Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The STC-Islah dispute, which has been at the heart of PLC wrangling, eased up slightly under UAE and Saudi pressure as their priority shifts to preventing a fiscal collapse after the Houthi strikes on oil facilities. This led to Alimi removing a key Islah military official in Hadramawt governorate, where STC-led protests were threatening to descend into violent clashes. The PLC’s Tareq Saleh strengthened his position as the scion of the Saleh family, leading government-backed celebrations to mark the death of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2017. The opening of Al-Mokha airport raises the importance of his UAE-backed National Resistance forces, which guard a critical section of the Red Sea coast.
- Topic:
- Oil, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Financial Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations
78. Ukraine–Russia Conflict: India’s Energy Security
- Author:
- Shebonti Ray Dadwal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- Any major upheaval or crisis in any part of the world, particularly one that involves an energy-producing country, has an immediate impact on the energy markets. But, barring the first ‘oil shock’ in 1973, which caused an initial spike in prices, the markets have settled down, particularly once it is established that the energy supplies will not be affected. However, since February 2022, following the onset of the Russian–Ukraine conflict, energy security has returned to the forefront of national security concerns. Oil and other energy prices are climbing to record levels, hovering around US$100 a barrel. In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the Ukraine war will severely set back global economic recovery from the COVID–19 pandemic, increase inflation, cause grave risks to the financial system, and even potentially fragment the world economy into geopolitical blocs (Gourinchas, 2022: 10–11). What makes the current conflict different from earlier crises? After all, the canvas of the conflict is essentially restricted to the European theatre and should, therefore, have limited fallout. Even when Russia attacked and annexed Crimea in 2014, the energy markets did not witness the kind of reaction and response the current Russia–Ukraine conflict is experiencing.
- Topic:
- Security, Markets, Oil, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, South Asia, Ukraine, and India
79. Forecasts of Electric Vehicle Penetration and its Impact on Global Oil Demand
- Author:
- Marianne Kah, Hon Xing Wong, and Jasmine Chiu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of global oil demand, with passenger vehicles and trucks making up by far the largest fraction. Many countries with decarbonization goals therefore seek to expand electrification of road transport to meaningfully decrease reliance on this fossil fuel. The degree to which electric vehicle (EV) penetration can alter global oil demand has implications for whether more stringent government decarbonization policies will be needed to reach net zero targets. This report, part of an oil and gas research initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, compiles medium- and long-term forecasts of EV penetration and addresses the question of whether the sharp increase in EV sales in recent years—a fourfold rise from 2019 to 2021—is projected to continue or even accelerate. It compares survey responses from 14 entities, including governments, think tanks, oil companies, consultants, and investment banks in the fourth quarter of 2021 with a similar survey conducted in 2019. The report examines forecasts for passenger EV sales and fleet share as well as those for electric commercial trucks out to 2050, and considers some of the key underlying drivers of passenger vehicle oil demand (e.g., population growth, GDP growth, battery cost trends). Some forecasters offered multiple scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), carbon constrained, and net zero carbon emissions (NZ) by 2050, with meaningfully different results. Overall, survey respondents anticipate an acceleration in the rate of EV penetration in passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks in the medium and long term, both in terms of sales and the ensuing share of the total fleet.
- Topic:
- Oil, Fossil Fuels, Transportation, and Electric Vehicles
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
80. Small states’ security strategies need an international energy dimension: What can be learned from the Danish Nord Stream and Baltic Pipe negotiations?
- Author:
- Trine Villumsen Berling
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Denmark encountered a number of unforeseen obstacles when negotiating the Nord Stream and Baltic Pipe gas pipelines, and the country ended up standing exposed and alone. A better politics of energy alliances and better strategic preparation are key lessons for small states like Denmark when dealing with the problematic combination of security and energy. RECOMMENDATIONS: Small states should include energy in strategic documents pertaining to foreign and security policies, as energy is a tool in the security toolbox of the great powers. Self-sufficiency in energy does not mean that a country is shielded from the dynamics of international energy. Small states should strive to build enduring political alliances focused on energy. Small states should prioritise sending experts to the NATO Centre of Excellence for Energy Security in order to stay on top of the international security situation concerning energy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Baltic States