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241. The Geopolitical Consequences of Oil in Africa: The Case of Nigeria

Author:
Cyril Obi
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Oil endowment has been a significant factor in Africa’s history, politics, and development. The continent was positioned strategically following the global energy transition from coal to crude oil in the latter part of thenineteenth and early part of the twentieth centuries, which shaped the history of oil in Africa.1 Today, Africa’s oil reserves serve both as a supply of oil to the global market and as a node for the continued integration of the continent’s petro-economies into a volatile global oil market. However, the fortunes of Africa’s oil-producing states depend on a commodity whose price they do not determine, and they find themselves with limited options to collectively leverage their positions on the global stage. This article explores the geopolitical consequences of the imminent energy transition from oil to non-carbon and renewable sources of energy for Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter: Nigeria. It argues that the growing use of non-carbon and renewable forms of energy will impact African oil producers negatively, particularly in relation to economic growth, national stability, and diminished international influence. The potential impact of a global energy transition for Nigeria is significant for a continent whose oil producers include Algeria, Angola, Chad, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and South Sudan—particularly when grappling with its emerging implications. This transi- tion assumes greater importance in the face of new oil discoveries in other Afri- can countries such as Ghana, Mauritania, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The new oil discoveries have revived the debate over the implications of the geopolitics of oil in Africa, as well as in an energy-hungry world that is simultaneously caught in a “global energy dilemma.”2
Topic:
Oil, Geopolitics, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

242. Financial Innovation for Energy Innovation

Author:
Ashby Monk and Soh Young In
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The move toward a global energy transition is underpinned by the collec- tive need to limit the most severe impacts of climate change as well as to foster more sustainable economic growth. Floating photovoltaic power stations on Chinese lakes, integrated carbon capture technology on large-scale power plants in Canada, and decentralized urban wind turbines on Singaporean rooftops are just a few examples of how radical innovations in clean energy technology are fueling the global energy transition.1 Bringing cutting-edge technology from the lab to the global energy market requires a supportive ecosystem. Innovation must be matched by market readiness to adopt disruptive technologies, local capacities to scale up new energy projects, energy policies with climate objectives, technological development, and sufficient and “aligned” investment capital. This article focuses specifically on the last requirement: the characteristics of investment capital needed to support clean energy innovation. Investors are key players in the future of energy, as they must drive innovation in the financial system to meet the scale of capital needed to transform the energy industry. Both a lack and misalignment of investment capital have hindered important technological leaps in sustainable energy.2 One such example is the severe financing shortage in commercializing novel clean energy technology. The most prominent financing issue associated with commercializing novel clean technology (cleantech) has been termed the “valley of death,” which refers to the pattern in which most early-stage cleantech is severely underfunded, resulting in innovation being abandoned before reaching full-sized deployment. There are many causes of this “valley of death,” but the common threads among them are the sheer number of financial risks in the energy industry and the inability to fully understand and manage these risks within the energy ecosystem.3
Topic:
Finance, Investment, Innovation, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

243. World Oil Security on a Precipice

Author:
Charles F. Doran
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
By attacking a major Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq on 13 September 2019, Iran established a new norm regarding oil security. Now, no oil field, pipeline, refinery, supertanker, or port facility is free from internecine warfare between oil-producing (OPEC) governments. Ironically, in attempting to defend a coun- try from supply interruption, the United States risks worsening the magnitude and scope of that supply interruption rather than preventing its occurrence. In the era of highly accurate drones and missiles, the old oil field motto “all oil comes from a single barrel” has taken on a newly negative connotation. World oil stability rests on a precipice. Both exporters and importers suffer from supply interruption, although perhaps not equally, universally, or simultaneously. Supply interruption may benefit those who have oil to sell through resultant oil price increases if their own exports have not been interrupted. The same cannot be said for buyers who, unless they are energy speculators on the futures market, ardently want to prevent supply interruption and the virtually certain subsequent (though sometimes not lasting) increase in price.
Topic:
Security, Markets, Oil, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Gulf Nations

244. Energy Futures: Oil and the Oil Industry

Author:
Richard A. Sears
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Abundant affordable energy has built the world in which we live today. Machines and the chemical energy that drives them have made it possible for a small percentage of the population to produce enough food for many of us to be scientists, engineers, artists, and authors. We are only able to pursue our diverse interests because available energy multiplies human effort many times over. With all the good that has come with access to energy resources extracted from the Earth, there is also an environmental price, which impacts our land, water, and air. My intent here is not to debate the merits of our current energy system; it is the reality in which we exist. Humans and human society have become de- pendent on energy in so many ways that we cannot simply undo what we have and flip overnight to alternatives that we believe preserve the benefits without the costs. The scale of our global energy use is enormous, and the infrastruc- ture we have built to deliver that energy and convert it to useful work has been developed over more than a century. It will realistically take several decades for energy alternatives to grow to replace the major sources of primary energy that we utilize today; similarly, it will take many decades to rebuild our energy infrastructure to efficiently utilize new sources of primary energy.1
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Renewable Energy, Industry, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

245. Impact of US-China Trade Tensions, the Coronavirus, and the Plunge of Oil Prices on the Malaysian Maritime Transportation Industry

Author:
Ang Chin Hup
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:
Malaysia’s maritime transportation industry has seen growth from the benefits of the nation’s strategic location, well-developed infrastructure, and buoyant economy. Recently, this growth has lost its momentum since it became affected by the US and China trade tensions, the Coronavirus pandemic, and the plunge in oil prices. The trade tensions affected Malaysia’s ports handling exports to China. The plunge of oil prices affects demand for bunker oil due to reduced shipping activities. Meanwhile, the Coronavirus pandemic has disrupted port operations. As solutions for these impacts, this paper recommends a diversified supply chain, logistics-centric port, a comprehensive bunkering strategy, and strict compliance to IMO’s conventions.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Pandemic, Industry, COVID-19, and Energy
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia

246. Perspectives on a Hydrogen Strategy for the European Union

Author:
Cédric Philibert
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
There is now a wide understanding that larger use of clean hydrogen in future can be an important mean to achieve decarbonisation of the European economy. A robust, cost-effective European hydrogen strategy could become a pillar of an EU economic recovery plan which should, in line with the Green Deal, accelerate the decarbonization of European economies. The challenge for the upcoming EU strategy is to identify the most important future uses of cost-effective clean hydrogen, ensure sound scale-up through efficient public support schemes and system approaches driving significant cost reductions. Opportunities to maximise the economic benefits for the European economy in terms of jobs, value creation and competitiveness will also matter. And, of course, effective decarbonisation. The European hydrogen industry is now largely ripe for a progressive scale up that needs to be planned for the coming 20 years. While clean hydrogen will be indispensable, it comes with technical and economic challenges. There is an undisputed potential for decrease, but costs and availability of energy inputs, as well as transport and distribution systems, and an enabling policy environment, matter as much or more than simple scale-up. The EU will have to take stock of strategies developed by other countries. Japan and South Korea have robust industrial strategies that push carbon intensive hydrogen in the automotive, residential and power sectors with strong public support. Decarbonization is not always the primary objective. The current demand for hydrogen in fuel refineries and to produce ammonia and methanol for agriculture, mining and industry purposes figures at the top of the possible demand for clean hydrogen. Moreover, steel making in the industrial sub-sector is most likely to create considerable demand for clean hydrogen in complement to scrap recycling. In the transport sector, clean hydrogen could be primarily used for long-haul trucking and coaches. European products exist and deployment is already underway. Long-haul trucks and coaches may demand significant amounts of clean hydrogen, with some complements from other terrestrial transport means although the European carmakers prioritise battery electric cars and light duty vehicles. For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and supporting infrastructures the challenge is of cost reduction through upscaling and mass production. Deep sea shipping is a sub-sector in which ammonia as a fuel is most likely to generate considerable additional demand for hydrogen. Aviation is a sub-sector that may call for large amounts of clean hydrogen in various forms unless offsetting emissions with verifiable carbon storage is available at scale and more competitive. Clean hydrogen may be used to achieve full decarbonisation of the power sector as an inter-seasonal option, via sector coupling with the gas infrastructure – but this will probably not be needed before 2035. Clean hydrogen can mainly be produced from electrolysis of water with low carbon electricity generation, from natural gas steam reforming with carbon capture and storage, and from natural gas pyrolysis. The clean hydrogen production comes with costs/challenges: hence why future demand must be carefully identified and prioritised. A sound hydrogen strategy for the EU should initially: Assess all available reference studies and international developments in terms of system benefits and costs, certainties and uncertainties, primary and secondary priorities, timelines as well as strengths and weaknesses of the European industry; Deploy progressively and cost-efficiently clean hydrogen for the applications where it has a potential proven advantage over competing solutions for decarbonisation to evaluate merit in terms of EUR/CO2 of each application under different assumptions; Support hydrogen clusters at city or territorial/ regional levels were production, demand and distribution can be effectively organized into systems that allow scale up, job creations, cost reductions and decarbonisation; Organize the scale up of demand and competition over supplies via regulation, IPCEIs in providing clarity over future needs/timelines; Develop roadmaps and demonstration projects for clean hydrogen-based solutions where the possibility of hydrogen proving a superior solution for decarbonisation is high enough; Protect EU hydrogen industry stakeholders at all levels and seizes from external takeovers; Ensure a level playing field for clean-hydrogen and hydrogen-rich fuels and feedstocks both within the EU and externally when there is a global market and competition, via regulatory tools and/or via a carbon border adjustment mechanism.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

247. Strangers to strategic partners: Thirty years of Sino-Saudi relations

Author:
Jonathan Fulton
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Saudi Arabia. Over the past three decades, the bilateral relationship has transitioned from one of marginal importance for both countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership, largely on the back of a trade relationship founded on energy. This report begins with a brief historical overview of Sino-Saudi relations, describing how the two countries transitioned from mutual hostility to diplomatic relations, and then how political and economic cooperation strengthened the relationship to the point that they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016. It then discusses how the partnership has developed through the 1+2+3 cooperation pattern, especially through projects linking China’s Digital Silk Road with Saudi vision 2030, as well as nascent levels of security cooperation. It ends with an analysis of the bi- lateral relationship within the context of the US-Sino-Saudi triangle: How does it affect each state’s larger strategic interests, and can issues where their interests diverge put a ceiling on future Sino-Saudi ties?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Business, and Energy
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

248. Enhancing US-Japan cooperation on clean energy technologies

Author:
Reed Blakemore and David W. Yellen
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Japan’s October 2020 pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 presents an opportunity to expand the robust US-Japan energy partnership into additional clean energy areas. But with a stark divide on energy policy in the United States, how can the US-Japan energy partnership appeal to disparate visions of the energy transition and be politically durable? In the wake of Japan’s net-zero announcement, the Global Energy Center is launching this new report, “Enhancing US-Japan cooperation on clean energy technologies,” which explores how the United States and Japan can increase the politically durable foundation for clean energy cooperation in their already robust energy partnership. Reed Blakemore and David W. Yellen analyze which technologies could form such a foundation, and they recommend that the two countries prioritize technologies that address three interrelated goals: enhancing energy security and resilience, becoming more competitive and spurring economic growth, and reducing remissions. The report suggests a path forward for the United States and Japan, not only to expand bilateral clean energy cooperation, but also to lay the groundwork for a broader Indo-Pacific partnership on clean energy markets and technologies.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Environment, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia, North America, and United States of America

249. Colombia’s shale resource potential

Author:
John D. Padilla
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Oil and gas production is a significant driver of Colombia’s economic growth. With decreased conventional hydrocarbon production in recent years, unconventional shale resources could provide additional revenues from the sector and stimulate growth as the country recovers from COVID-19. But care must be taken to ensure that shale production is environmentally sound and that royalties reach local communities. As the Iván Duque administration prepares to award investigative pilot projects (PPIIs) for shale development in November 2020, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and Global Energy Center launched on October 29 the report “Colombia’s Shale Resource Potential,” the second in the Global Energy Center’s Future of Shale series. In the report, John D. Padilla explores the necessary conditions for successful shale development in Colombia. He analyzes key global and local factors that will determine whether the country’s abundant shale resources can be developed safely and sustainably. The new report argues that the most important factors that will support sustainable shale development are political will, legal certainty, and a robust, yet flexible, regulatory framework for PPIIs.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Energy
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

250. Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020

Author:
Michael Emerson, Steven Blockmans, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridze, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the bold title EasternPartnership policy beyond 2020: Reinforcing Resilience – an Eastern Partnershipthat delivers for all, the recent EU Joint Communication offers a broad array of policy orientations but little operational specificity, find the authors of this commentary. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – each with EU Association Agreements, requested a ‘quadrilogue’ with the EU to deal with matters of common concern to them but not the other EaP states. The fact that this request was not granted is a glaring omission from the Communication, but one that could still be corrected at the EaP summit on June 18th. The summit should also agree the policy direction of the EU and the Eastern partner states beyond 2020, and include the many transnational issues worthy of quadrilateral consultations. Among these issues is how the revision of major EU policies, such as those on energy, climate and competition, may affect the associated states.
Topic:
Climate Change, Partnerships, Transnational Actors, Resilience, Energy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia