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131. What would no deal mean?

Author:
Anand Menon, David Bailey, Tim Bale, Catherine Barnard, Matthew Bevington, Meredith Crowley, Sarah Hall, Katy Hayward, Martin Heneghan, Carmen Hubbard, Lisa James, Hussein Kassim, Ben Kienzle, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Ivan Rajic, Meg Russell, Jill Rutter, Thomas Sampson, Maddy Thimont-Jack, Alan Wager, and Dan Wincott
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
We now have a Withdrawal Agreement, which means ‘no deal’ means ‘no trade deal’. Yet a no deal outcome would still have profound implications for the UK. As we analyse in this report, from trade to connectivity to foreign policy to cooperation in policing, a failure to strike an agreement with the EU will impact on us in numerous ways.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, Constitution, Economy, Trade, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

132. Revisited: What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?

Author:
Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Whether it is because of fishing rights, financial services, the EU’s insistence that the UK adhere to its level playing field, governance demands, or simply running out of time, it is far from clear that a trade deal will be successfully negotiated and approved by the end of 2020. As a consequence, the notion of the UK trading with the EU ‘on WTO terms’ has resurfaced. We have produced this report to explain what the WTO is and what trading on WTO terms actually means legally and practically. It updates an earlier version published in 2018.
Topic:
European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

133. Brexit: what next?

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK has finally left the European Union. Brexit has happened. However, what promises to be a long and complex process of dealing with its implications is only just beginning. Given this, we thought it was worth trying to take stock of where we’ve got to, and to look forward to the challenges that confront us moving forward. Social science has as much, if not more, to offer in phase two as it did in phase one.
Topic:
European Union, Constitution, Economy, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

134. Covid 19 and post Brexit migration policy

Author:
Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, and Tim Bale
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

135. TESEV Interviews: Data Sharing for Urban Governance Part 7

Author:
Rob Kitchin
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
With the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNS), the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) has been running the program titled “Supporting Sustainable Cities” since 2016. This year’s project is designed to highlight the need for effective networks that connect key actors for maintaining a workable “data-ecosystem”. In order to bring expert opinion to the discussion, TESEV has conducted a video interview with Prof. Rob Kitchin of Maynooth University with the aim of producing a series of short clips providing key insights. Having served as the principal investigator in the project that gave rise to the Dublin Dashboard among numerous other data initiatives that he led, and as a widely published scholar in open data and data-ecosystems, Kitchin’s comments serve as a guide for potential models of partnership to build effective data-ecosystems. Key pieces of information from our interview are presented in this eight-part mini-series. Part 7: Is it not reasonable to expect cities to take responsibility for the sustainability of urban dashboard projects given that they are the ones benefiting the most from these dashboards?
Topic:
Urbanization, Economy, Urban, Sustainability, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

136. The evolution of Belarusian public sector: From command economy to state capitalism?

Author:
Aliaksandr Papko
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Economic growth, Public Sector, Trade, and State Capitalism
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Belarus

137. Is the economy doomed to a long recession?

Author:
Andrzej Halesiak and Andrzej Rzońca
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic. A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic growth, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

138. India as the Engine of Recovery for South Asia: a Multi-Sectoral Plan for India’s Covid-19 Diplomacy in the Region

Author:
Shyam Saran, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, Nimmi Kurian, and Sandeep Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic presents an unparalleled challenge to the peace and prosperity of South Asia, home to one-fourth of the world population. Aside from the immediate health crisis, the pandemic also threatens to undo decades of economic development in the region and destabilize it socially and politically. It is imperative that India take on the leadership role in the region during this time of crisis. As the largest nation in South Asia, it needs to assume the responsibility of assisting its neighbourhood in combating the pandemic and getting on the path of a sustained recovery. This report, from the International Relations team at the Centre for Policy Research, offers a multi-sectoral action plan for India’s Covid-19 diplomacy in the region, covering critical areas of health, food security, ecology, trade and finance. Focusing on the immediate problems as well as long-term challenges, the report envisions a prosperous South Asia, with India as its engine of recovery.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
South Asia and India