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21. Training-Employment Transition and New Digital Professions: A Solution to Women’s Employability in Cameroon

Author:
Yollande Meli Tankeu, Emilie Bitongo, and Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The primary objective of all training programs is to facilitate integration into the job market. However, the transition from training to employment—encompassing young people who study and work simultaneously, as well as those who are unemployed, underemployed, or dissatisfied with self-employment (ILO, 2020) remains a significant challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for women. In Cameroon, the female participation and opportunity rate stands at 70.4%, which is 29.6% lower than that of men (Global Gender Gap, 2022). Nearly eight out of ten female workers are engaged in vulnerable employment, with 93% in informal jobs, and only 11% of paid workers have contracts lasting more than 12 months (Elder and Kring, 2016), from the ILO School to Work Transition Survey). Although there have been some advancements in the Cameroonian job market in recent years, the situation for women remains concerning compared to that of men. Recent advances and innovations in the digital sector present opportunities for a successful transition from training to employment, particularly for women, due to the emergence of new professions. In Cameroon, the digital economy accounted for 3.5% of GDP in 2016 (Djon, 2020). Since then, the digital sector has introduced a variety of professions, including digital marketing, community management, web writing, and blogging, which could facilitate a positive training-employment transition for women in Cameroon. However, women currently represent only 20% of digital workers in the country (Business & Finance International, 2023). This article examines the challenges of the training-employment transition for women and the emergence of new digital jobs as a potential solution to enhance their employability in Cameroon. Our analysis is structured into two parts: the first provides an overview of the training-employment transition for women in Cameroon, while the second highlights new digital professions as opportunities for improving this transition.
Topic:
Women, Employment, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

22. Time to Reset the U.S. Trade Agenda

Author:
Peter Harrell
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The strongest argument for rebooting U.S. trade policy ultimately may not be geopolitics, nor even the economic argument that trade deals will help an already-strong U.S economy. Instead, the best argument is that trade is a key element of solving global challenges that affect us all, like the green energy transition and the risks of AI and the digital economy.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Trade Policy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

23. A Strategy for a Competitive Europe: Boosting R&D, Unleashing Investment, and Reducing Regulatory Burdens

Author:
Andrea Dugo and Fredrik Erixon
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU stands at a crucial economic juncture. Economic growth in Europe’s mature economies has stagnated, with productivity and other indicators of economic vitality showing poor results. Public debt is alarmingly high in several countries, and the region faces new fiscal demands due to an ageing population, conflicts and war, and the energy transition. To reverse its economic decline, Europe must adopt a new strategy for improved competitiveness. The starting point of this strategy should be an honest assessment of Europe’s declining productivity compared to leading economies like the US. Historically, some European countries matched or even surpassed US productivity levels, but this gap has widened over the past three decades. While the US economy has also faced challenges, its technology, R&D, and innovation sectors have significantly boosted productivity growth. This paper identifies three key areas for policy improvement to rejuvenate Europe’s economic dynamism: Radical expansion of R&D Expenditure: Governments must significantly increase funding for universities and create better conditions for private R&D investments. The EU currently fails to meet its own target of R&D expenditures at 3 per cent of GDP. Achieving parity with US R&D expenditure levels would require an additional €200 billion annually. Mobilisation of European Savings for Investment: Despite a higher savings rate than the US, Europe’s underdeveloped capital markets hinder economic growth and investment in new enterprises. The EU needs policies to channel savings into a vibrant corporate market. Expanding the European bond market, which is currently half the size of the US one, is essential for European firms to secure funding and keep the pace of American innovation. Regulatory Reform: The EU’s restrictive regulatory environment increases business costs and stifles innovation. A shift in regulatory attitudes, for instance in the banking sector, could unlock €4.5 trillion annually, providing much-needed capital for European firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to finance innovation during the green and digital transition. By addressing these areas, Europe can create a more favourable environment for business growth, innovation, and long-term economic stability.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Digital Economy, Investment, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Future-proofing the EU’s Investment Attractiveness: A Bold Reform Agenda for Competition Enforcement, Taxation and Digital Policy

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Reducing the deterrent effects from EU and Member State laws in three key cross-sector policy areas – competition policy, business taxes and VAT, and digital policies – could significantly enhance the business environment within the Single Market and boost the EU’s attractiveness to both domestic and foreign investors. The EU’s future competitiveness is at risk due to a significant disparity in investments, particularly in technological innovation, compared to the US. Despite having a larger population and labour force, the EU lags behind in large business activities, with US firms consistently outspending their European counterparts in key tech-intensive sectors such as software, computer services, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. Moreover, China and other emerging nations are rapidly catching up, dramatically diminishing the EU’s relative economic and political influence on the global stage. The urgency for the EU to bridge these gaps is more critical than ever (Section 2). The EU’s profound investment gap highlights a systemic advantage for the US in fostering innovation and economic growth. The EU’s regulatory complexity, largely driven by legal fragmentation in horizontal policies, further exacerbate the situation, deterring cross-border activities reducing the region’s attractiveness to global investors (Section 3).
Topic:
Markets, Reform, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

25. Enhancing Technology Diffusion in the EU amid Tough Structural Challenges

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Elena Sisto, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
To remain globally competitive, the EU must empower firms to adopt the best technology solutions available on global markets. Building on a strong tradition of innovation, the EU relies on corporations across industries to drive the diffusion of technology through the commercialisation of technological innovations. Technology diffusion is crucial for embedding new technologies into society and is essential for sustaining industrial competitiveness. EU and Member State governments must prioritise enhancing the EU’s “diffusion capacity” – the ability to effectively spread and adopt innovations across Member States.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Digital Economy, and Services
Political Geography:
Europe

26. Empires of Exceptionalism: Lessons from the EU AI Act and Attempts at AI Legislation in California

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Claudia Lozano
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU AI Act, which passed after three years of negotiations and much ambivalence, sets a comprehensive regulatory framework that reflects the European Union’s unique needs that are not translatable to other jurisdictions. The proposed bill in California (SB 1047) illustrates this case in point. The bill could potentially mislead the public into thinking that AI is already under effective regulatory control. Lawmakers must recognize that the EU differs from other systems. The EU AI Act is not only shaped by the desire to slow down global AI development, allowing Europe to catch up with rivals like the US and China: The EU lacks an enforceable constitution, and the Act prohibits its governments to impose social scoring and discriminatory measures. SB 1047 only addressed humanity-ending disasters and had unclear practical value. Meanwhile, the EU AI Act was passed into law to prevent internal competition and Europe’s history of authoritarianism. Existing laws in California and the EU already regulate most AI use cases. In addition, the EU AI Act reviews existing regulations to ensure they are still fit for purpose, something California failed to do in SB 1047. A critical takeaway is to examine existing obligations or executive powers (including enforcement agencies and public funding) to achieve the desired policy objectives. The diverging outcomes of the two laws show the importance of avoiding mismatches between policy objectives and legislative scope. AI regulation cannot substitute for other policy objectives, like privacy and antitrust. Also, lawmakers must weigh the cost of failed regulation against the risks of non-regulation. California did not see any immediate costs of inaction, whereas delayed action by the EU might have led to the fragmentation of its internal market. Also, given its collective decision-making, the EU can escape accountability for policy failures due to premature laws in a way the leaders in other political systems cannot.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Legislation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, California, North America, and United States of America

27. Securing Europe’s Future: Strengthening ICT Competitiveness for Economic and National Security

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector, including ICT manufacturing such as telecom equipment and electronic components, as well as ICT services such as software, telecommunication services, and data processing, is no longer merely an economic pillar but a strategic asset essential for national security and defence capabilities. This paper identifies two concerns linking technology and national security: the exploitation of ICT as a gateway to critical infrastructure and the weaponisation of trade and technological dependencies in ICT by foreign nations. Addressing these two challenges requires tailored approaches, as they involve distinct nations and contexts. First, the EU should reduce its reliance on Chinese telecom equipment within its networks and accelerate the deployment of 5G. While phasing out Chinese telecom equipment will take years, a faster rollout of 5G can be achieved in the short term. To accomplish this, the EU should promote the scale and profitability of its telecom operators. Secondly, the EU relies heavily on US companies for a substantial share of its cloud-based online services. However, it is unlikely that the US would impose restrictions on these exports to the EU. Furthermore, replicating the infrastructure needed to deliver cloud-based online services would entail significant costs. To achieve technological leadership, the EU must prioritise emerging technologies such as 6G, XG, AI, quantum computing, and edge and hybrid computing, which will form the foundation of future commercial and military innovations. Thirdly, the EU should strengthen its leadership position in the development of technologies for advanced mobile communication, including 5G, 6G, and XG. Through significant effort and investment in R&D, European companies have secured a leading role in developing technical standards for cellular communication and telecom equipment. Large European firms such as Ericsson and Nokia, as well as EU SMEs that are champions in their fields, are among the most significant contributors to the technological standards. This hard-won position is one that EU policymakers must do their utmost to protect and develop. However, complacency is a recipe for disaster. The EU has the potential to foster companies that could lead in the technologies of tomorrow. It possesses the necessary fundamentals to drive technological innovation in the ICT sector, including high levels of human capital, firms operating at the technological frontier, and a market economy underpinned by strong institutions, the rule of law, and robust intellectual property protections. These constitute Europe’s comparative advantages, and the EU must adopt policies that recognise and reinforce them, rather than undermine them.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, European Union, Digital Economy, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

28. AI and India’s National Interest

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Claudia Lozano, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
AI offers a policy dilemma for India. On the one hand, export competitiveness hinges on the nationwide deployment of productivity-enhancing technologies. Indian services and consultancies must incorporate AI technologies to keep their leading position in the global market. On the other hand, there are also concerns over automation’s impact on social cohesion, discriminatory algorithmic decision-making, and the risks of “deepfakes”. However, the current transitional guidelines have shown a feasible pathway to avoiding overlapping liability or regulatory blindspots by re-interpreting existing legislation. India has a comprehensive framework for antitrust, corporate liability, free speech, and public order that covers AI development and use cases. India may not need AI-specific rules. Currently, only the EU has chosen to legislate through binding laws due to its unique structural deficiencies. The EU lacks a supranational constitution that safeguards human rights and protects citizens against AI-based surveillance or policing by its Member States. The EU must enact binding rules to pre-empt AI laws by national governments that will otherwise fragment its Single Market. Whereas India has previously taken inspiration from the EU or the US laws, India must follow its own paths and pursue its national interests based on its services-driven industrial profile and the two-way competition against China and the US, who have chosen not to impose any regulatory impediments on AI use or development. India’s challenge lies not in whether businesses prefer a local or foreign AI platform but in encouraging rapid adoption and supporting open-source and other alternatives accessible for fine-tuning and transfer learning for its IT industry.
Topic:
Regulation, Digital Economy, Exports, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

29. Trade, Jobs and Technological Change: What to Expect in the Next Five Years?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief explores the intertwined effects of trade and technological change (notably robotics and AI) on employment, highlighting a growing divergence between the number of jobs supported by exports and the declining labour intensity of exports in recent years. The decline in labour intensity may be sharply accelerated by the rise of robotics and the automation of routine tasks, displacing workers in manufacturing and logistics while enhancing productivity. For many countries that have a strong dependence on the trade-jobs nexus, the historically declining labour intensity of exports combined with the rapid adoption of robotics in key economic sectors, will mean that industries could now rely on fewer workers for their exporting activities. This dual shock suggests that, in the future, the number of jobs that depend on trade may decline. The convergence of these forces may lead to certain sectors or regions bearing the brunt of such potential labour disruptions. To address these challenges, supporting policies will be required to mitigate these adverse effects.
Topic:
Globalization, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Trade, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. The tension between exploding AI investment costs and slow productivity growth

Author:
Bertin Martens
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This working paper explores the tension between rapidly increasing artificial intelligence investment costs and the slower pace of productivity growth, raising concerns about a potential ‘economic winter’ for AI. AI has shown significant technological progress, particularly with machine learning and generative AI models like ChatGPT. Investment in AI has surged. But there are concerns about whether these investments will yield proportional returns. Training costs for a single frontier AI model are increasing exponentially, , from $1,000 in 2017 to nearly $200 million in 2024, driven by constant returns to scale in AI model training data, compute capacity and model complexity. Costs could reach billions of dollars by 2030, despite a rapid fall in unit costs per computing operation over the same period. Global AI infrastructure costs in hardware could exceed $1 trillion by the mid-2030s. Amortizing these huge fixed costs requires business models that can be rolled out across a very large user market. Estimates about AI’s contribution to productivity growth vary, from a modest 0.5 percent per year to a very optimistic 10 percent per year. Research shows that productivity usually catches up slowly compared to costs. Without significant productivity gains, the current investment cost trajectory is unsustainable. We estimate that 3 percent annual productivity growth across advanced economies would be required to sustain AI model cost extrapolations to 2030. In an optimistic scenario, productivity increases would result in accelerated economic growth.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Microeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus