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31. North Africa 2030: What the Future Holds for the Region

Author:
Karim Mezran and Armando Sanguini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
More than ten years after the “Arab Spring”, the turmoil that swept across North Africa has taken many forms. But the Arab uprisings have also brought about a surprising amount of “more of the same”, as the problems that plagued the region have not gone away. This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and the Atlantic Council, looks at the future of the region by asking: what will North Africa be in 2030? Which direction could the region as a whole, and specific countries, take? And what are the implications for Europe and the US?
Topic:
Development, Arab Spring, Future, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
North Africa

32. Washington and the Next Arab Spring

Author:
Sarah Feuer and David Schenker
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Should protests grow more destabilizing, the United States will need to balance its values and interests regarding bilateral ties, the popular movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the second essay of the series, Sarah Feuer, David Schenker, and their coauthors discuss the resurgence of protest activity across the region, the result of deteriorating economic circumstances and abysmal governance, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic. Should protests become more destabilizing, the authors explain, the United States—before taking any action—will need to carefully balance its values and interests with respect to bilateral ties, the protest movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Arab Spring, Protests, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

33. Unconstitutional Populism: A Peril to Democracy In Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author:
Joel Moudio Motto
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The end of the Arab Spring has barely been digested, with Sub-Saharan Africa starting to embark on the same lane. The Malian news of August 2020 saw the ousting of Ibrahim Boubakar Keita following a popular mobilization led by the Imam of the Bamako Mosque. In 2014 in Burkina Faso, the popular movement under the banner of the Balai-citoyen deposed Blaise Comparoé. Both of these constitutive cases of populism indicate a rejection of representative democracy and, therefore, of the ‘will’ of the people to govern directly without institutional mediation. Still, they also express the crisis of the welfare state, that is, the inability of those in power to deliver. In populist rhetoric, history and political issues are reduced to an aggressive opposition between a majority people – homogeneous and hard-working – and an elite – minority and heterogeneous, democratically elected and appointed by governments. These elite, in populist rhetoric, are seen as an enemy of the people. Thus, the emergence of populist dynamics in Mali since June 2020 – with the eruption of the heterogeneous opposition coalition of the Movement of June 5 – Rally of Patriotic Forces of Mali (M5-RFP) – and in Burkina Faso with the civil society organizations around the Balai Citoyen in 2014, which contributed to the overthrow of democratically elected Heads of State, is, in fact, anti-constitutional populism. Therefore, in this circumstance, we seek to underscore the drivers of unconstitutional populism and to what extent it remains a threat to democratic transition.
Topic:
Democracy, Constitution, Populism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa

34. Muhammad Bin Salman’s Vision 2030: Strategy of the Kingdom in the Facade of Modernization

Author:
Sadia Rafique and Khalid Manzoor Butt
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Arab Spring, the Middle East (ME) by and large underwent various political upheavals. This change was palpable in some countries particularly where it resulted in a new political dispensation. However, in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the state opted to placate the antagonists by some economic concessions and social flexibility. Under the leadership of Muhammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince of KSA, the country is now following an approach of modernization which has two dimensions: first, moving towards social liberalization and secondly, initiating new sources of revenue and reducing dependence on oil revenue. Behind all initiatives, there is a long-term strategy to maintain loyalty of their people and enhance influence of KSA in the ME particularly. This article evaluates goals of Muhammad Bin Salman’s Vision or Saudi Vision 2030 and strategies which require substantial changes in social setup and developments to the Kingdom’s fiscal and budgetary measures and policies. This study reflects the political, religious, family and institutional challenges that can antagonize the Vision and its probability of accomplishment. While theorizing the study, it will be evaluated that a re-drawing of the ‘social contract’ in the Kingdom seems necessary. This means not only more effective strategic communication and consultation with the stakeholders, but also a greater focus on inclusive growth and social safety.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Modernization, Liberalization, and Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

35. The Arab Spring: A Decade Later

Author:
Mario Stefanov
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring. Suicide of an unemployed young man in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid on 17 December 2010 has enticed the protesters to take to the streets and it has triggered and open rebellion against Tunisian autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali - who on 14 a decade later, it can be stated with certainty that the revolutions of the Arab Spring were not successful. These revolutions have not ushered in neither modernization nor democratization of the Arab countries, which was the revolutions declared objective. To the contrary, even Tunisia, a country said to have had a successful revolution, had also replaced one dictatorship with another. Effects of the violent upheavals of January 2011 boarded on plane and fled to Saudi Arabia, escaping in front of the revolutionary chaos. Successful toppling of Ben Ali has set off a string of uprising in the Arab countries that are today known as the Arab Spring. Nowadays, the Arab Spring in other Arab countries include strengthening od forces of Islamist extremism, conflicts on ethnic, religious and sectarian divisions, civil wars, total economic destruction of the most of the Arab countries caught by the revolutionary wave, dissolution of formerly strong Arab states, and triggering the waves of migrations that still flow toward Europe. A decade after the outbreak of the Arab Spring revolutions the question of their real source remains unanswered, as well as the question to which extent these revolutions were stirred by internal forces in the Arab States of the Middle East and North Africa, or influenced by the factors from the outside. The question whether the revolutions of the Arabs Spring were just an acute geopolitical incident or a part of a long- term process, also remains unanswered. The tenth anniversary is an opportunity to reflect upon and analyze the facts and indications that manifest whom these revolutions benefited, and whom they harmed.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, Protests, Revolution, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

36. From the Barcelona Process to the Programme for the Mediterranean, a fragile partnership with the Pierre MIREL European Union

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In Barcelona in 1995, the European Union and its southern partners[1] committed to making the Mediterranean basin an area of dialogue, exchange and cooperation, ensuring “peace, stability and prosperity.” Twenty-five years later, the southern shore of the Mediterranean faces immense challenges: governance, corruption, migration, terrorism, security, environment and climate, in addition to conflicts, geopolitical competition and external interference. This is the bitter assessment of the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice-President of the European Commission[2] in their Communication on a new programme for the Mediterranean. The civil wars in Algeria, Lebanon, Syria and Libya cannot, of course, be used to describe the EU's policy since 1995 as a failure. This would imply that the EU's policy has played a role that was not possible given the underlying forces at play in these regions. However, this policy has not lived up to the hopes it first raised. The Union has taken a succession of initiatives over the past twenty-five years, but the 'partnerships', 'privileged status' and other 'strategic agreements' have not been able to mask the shortcomings and lack of financial resources. Will the new programme, presented as 'ambitious and innovative', be able to respond to the challenges set?
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Arab Spring, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

37. The Sikh Struggle for Khalistan: Refocusing on the Punjabi Suba (Province) Movement in India

Author:
Amir Ali
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This study problematizes the Sikh’s demand for Khalistan, a separate country of their own. To begin with, they demanded a greater degree of political autonomy within the domains of India. During the colonial period the Sikhs supported the Indian National Congress’s demand for the division of Punjab and inclusion of the East Punjab into Bharat. But soon after the creation of Bharat(India), `the Sikhs realized that they were betrayed and they started to vow for more autonomy. Initially, they felt that PEPSU was a step towards their aspirations but later they felt that they had missed the train and moved for Punjabi Province. After much deliberation and delaying tactics, finally the Punjab emerged on the Indian Territory in the form that always proved a nightmare for the Sikh community.
Topic:
Multiculturalism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Arab Spring, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Syria

38. An Analysis of European Union Policy towards Syrian Refugees

Author:
Ameer Ayaz and Abdul Wadood
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In 2015, millions of refugees, mostly Syrians, knocked the door of Europe for protection against war and violence in their home countries. The number of refugees that entered Europe in 2015 made only 0.2 percent of total Europe’s population, considerably low number than other refugee hosting countries. In fact, for a continent as wealthy as Europe, the influx of refugees could be easily managed but European Union was unable to bring a common policy to cope with it. European Union already divided by the Eurozone crisis experienced further divisions due to refugee influx. The polarization in European politics and society reached the highest point since the Second World War. The failure of Social Democracy and center politics in solving the crisis created space for either right-wing or left-wing populist parties that won many seats in both European and national parliaments, while in some countries even managed to make governments.
Topic:
Multiculturalism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Arab Spring, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

39. Interview with Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi

Author:
Sarah Mousa
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi is a United Arab Emirates–based columnist and researcher of social, political, and cultural affairs in the Arab Gulf States. Sultan rose in prominence during the Arab Spring when his tweets became a major news source, rivaling news networks at the time, until TIME Magazine listed him in the “140 Best Twitter Feeds of 2011.” In 2018, Sultan ranked 19th on the Arabic Thought Leader Index by Swiss think-tank Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute. Sultan was an MIT Media Lab Director’s fellow from 2014 to 2016, and in the spring of 2017, he was a practitioner in residence at the Hagop Kevorkian Center of Near East Studies at New York University, where he offered a special course on politics of Middle Eastern art. Sultan is currently conducting research for a book that documents the modern architecture of the city of Sharjah in the UAE. In 2010, Sultan established the Barjeel Art Foundation that aims to contribute to the intellectual development of the art scene in the Arab region by building an extensive and publicly accessible art collection. In 2018, 100 works from the collection were hosted on a long-term basis at the Sharjah Art Museum.
Topic:
Arts, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Interview
Political Geography:
Gulf Nations

40. Comprehensive, Contentious, Convulsive, and Continuing: Some Observations on the 2010–2020 Arab Uprisings

Author:
Rami G. Khouri
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The grievances that exploded all over the Arab region between 2010 and 2020 are historic in so many ways that it is hard to know where to start understanding them. Scholars should avoid a single-focus analysis and instead grasp why the protests across nearly a dozen countries have addressed almost every dimension of material, political, and psychological life. Four key factors that converge, though, should take priority in any assessment of what this decade means for the Arab region: (1) the expanding range of rights, denials, and grievances that citizens raise; (2) the fact that Arabs have unsuccessfully tried to redress these grievances since the 1970s without receiving any serious responses from their states; (3) the demands today to go well beyond reforms in individual policies and instead totally overhaul the governance systems and throw out the ruling elites; and, (4) the simultaneous uprisings across much of the Arab region, revealing the common suffering of citizens and the incompetence of governments in about a dozen states at least. In short, the deterioration of the quality of citizenship and the dilapidated state of public services and governance have reached such a severe condition that they have caused mass eruptions by citizens in multiple lands to redress these stressful and often dehumanizing realities.
Topic:
Human Rights, Social Movement, Reform, Citizenship, Arab Spring, History, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa