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42. How the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation IF IMPLEMENTED changes relations between Kosovo and Serbia?
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi and Adelina Hasani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), creates a possibility for a new state of relations between the two countries, albeit a new status-quo. Through the APN Serbia practically recognizes statehood attributes of Kosovo, by accepting national symbols, as well as the obligation to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Kosovo, and treat Kosovo on the basis of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the Treaty of the European Union (TEU). The APN also makes Kosovo and Serbia responsible to preserve the peace and “contribute to fruitful regional co-operation and security in Europe”. • The new state of relations (new status-quo), is dependent upon effective implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. Without effective implementation, the APN becomes another conflict management tool, rather than an instrument for affirmative normalization of relations. The current trends are not optimistic for implementation and suggest that both parties, especially in Serbia, are focused on undermining the APN and its impact; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia, while introduces significant affirmative changes in the Kosovo-Serbia relations – if implemented – it also includes elements that can potentially create legal and political hurdles for the Kosovo government. The APN marks the first time, that a Kosovo government accepts Serbia’s position on the status question. The preamble of the APN includes the following sentence: “[…] without prejudice to the different view of the Parties on fundamental questions, including on status questions”, but there is not reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on the declaration of independence of Kosovo. Based on the precedents set by previous agreements/arrangements between Kosovo and Serbia in the framework of the EU-facilitated normalization dialogue, whenever the phrasing “without prejudice to the status” was used, a reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on declaration of independence was also included; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia has been welcomed by the European Council, which marks the first time that all 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) have endorsed an agreement from the normalization dialogue. The European Council conclusions note that APN puts “the relationship between both parties on a new and sustainable basis as a historic chance that should be seized by both parties” and urges implementation • In other words, if the optimistic scenario of all five recognizing Kosovo fails, then Spain and Cyprus should move towards the current Greek position on Kosovo, while Greece itself, alongside Slovakia and Romania, should move to formal recognition. In Kosovo there are concerns about the position of Romania, which is seen as moving further away from constructive engagement with Kosovo and recognition and closer to the position of Spain. • The role of the European Union (EU) as a facilitator in the dialogue for normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, has arguably evolved into an arbiter, as a result of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization (APN), and the implementation roadmap. This means that for Kosovo and Serbia implementation of the provisions from the APN is a contractual obligation towards the EU in the framework of the European integration process. This arrangement was necessitated by the refusal of Serbia to sign the APN, although it agreed to it verbally. In this context, when neither side has signed the APN, the role of EU as an arbiter is a must, in order to guarantee implementation by both countries. • The transparency of the process of the dialogue for normalization of relations with Serbia has declined in Kosovo. The Kosovo government has limited its reporting on the normalization dialogue both to the public as well as to the Kosovo Assembly. In addition to this, Kosovo government has acted against previous precedents of asking the Kosovo Assembly for consent when accepting a high-level agreement with Serbia, such as the case from 2013 with the “First agreement of principles governing the normalization of relations”. • The implementation annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia agreed in Ohrid in March, is vague, and lacks concrete measures to ensure implementation of the agreement, including sequencing of actions.
- Topic:
- Security, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
43. What kind of "European sovereignty" after the Versailles Declaration?
- Author:
- Yves Bertoncini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Adopted in March 2022 while Russian aggression against Ukraine was raging, the “Versailles Declaration” reflects an unprecedented political commitment by the Heads of State and government of the European Union to strengthening European sovereignty in military, energy and economic matters. While it is in line with the traditional French vision of a "powerful Europe”[1], a declaration of principles of this nature owes much to the integrating moment generated by the COVID 19 pandemic, then by the war in Ukraine[2]; it also echoes the geopolitical uncertainties encountered during Donald Trump's term of office and the increasingly hard line taken by the Chinese authorities. This convergence, which is both circumstantial and historic, has since given rise to both natural progress and tension between national players, European institutions and partisan forces, which are commensurate with the challenges to be met in terms of sharing competences and powers that have often remained largely national. It is all the more salutary to take stock of the political impetus given by Versailles at a time when the war in Ukraine continues and Sino-American tensions are escalating, since the sovereignty of our continent in the face of international challenges of all kinds will be one of the central issues at stake in the European elections of June 2024. In particular, there is a need to be clear about the political and diplomatic conditions under which "European sovereignty” can be achieved[3] to identify current or potential bottlenecks so as to overcome them more effectively[4]. This analysis also applies to France, which has initiated many of the advances made in terms of European sovereignty, but which is also beset by structural handicaps that need to be remedied if the historic significance of the Versailles Declaration is not to be weakened.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Future, Russia-Ukraine War, and Versailles Declaration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44. A Model for Connectivity: Hungary’s Strong Bond with the Turkic World
- Author:
- Balázs Orbán
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- For more than one thousand years, Hungary has existed in the heart of Europe, drawing from our rich history and unique geographic location. Sovereignty has emerged as a cornerstone of our national strategy, influenced by our past and our geography. While we align ourselves with the West, we also cherish our Eastern heritage. Taking a pragmatic approach, we strive to build meaningful connections and engage with the non-Western world. Balancing our Western ties with our Eastern roots, Hungary seeks to foster productive relationships and promote connectivity across diverse global landscapes. In the early 1990s, Central Europe experienced significant regime changes as countries liberated themselves from four decades of communist rule and reclaimed their independence. However, in Hungary and other Central European states, the political elite failed to fully leverage this newfound sovereignty. While the aspiration to reintegrate Hungary into the Western cultural, economic, and political sphere was wellfounded—as our country had a century-long history of belonging to the West—the emphasis on this objective led to a neglect of our relationships with the non-Western world. This oversight occurred despite clear and indisputable indications that the non-Western world was quickly catching up with the West. Subsequent governments, driven by political loyalty to the West, overlooked the vast potential Hungary possessed in terms of economic and cultural relations with the non-Western world—particularly through pragmatic diplomacy. However, a significant shift occurred after the landslide victory in 2010, when the Viktor Orbán government took charge and decided to change course. Since then, connectivity has become the central guiding principle of our foreign policy and our foreign economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forging meaningful connections, diversifying trade, forging value chains, establishing diplomatic relations with multiple regions, all the while also preserving our national sovereignty in the process.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Hungary
45. How African states voted on Russia’s war in Ukraine at the United Nations – and what it means for the West
- Author:
- Elias Götz, Jonas Geji Kaas, and Kevin Patrick Knudsen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Most African states have not supported United Nations (UN) General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine. To win more support in Africa, the West needs to stress the importance of upholding the territorial integrity norm and engaging African states as equal partners. The West’s engagement on the continent must be about more than ‘containing’ Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, United Nations, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus
46. Stark Choices Confront Taiwan Voters
- Author:
- David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Taiwan’s presidential election campaign has begun. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Hou Yu-ih from the Nationalist (Kuomintang, or KMT) Party, Ko Wen-je of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and independent Terry Gou offer Taiwan voters four different visions of Taiwan’s future relationship with China. As senior US and Chinese officials resumed long-stalled face-to-face meetings, China warned once again that it has no room for compromise or concession on Taiwan. Yet, when Lai completed almost invisible transits through the US en route to Paraguay and back, China’s military response seemed almost pro-forma. When US, Japanese, and South Korean leaders reiterated at the trilateral Camp David summit their staunch opposition to China’s intimidation, China chose to interpret their words as one more promise to support Taiwan. The US accelerated weapons deliveries to Taiwan and expanded training for Taiwan’s military, and Taiwan announced that its defense budget will increase by 7.5% in 2024. Taiwan’s TSMC moved forward on constructing its Arizona factory despite some hiccups, and the US and Taiwan signed a long-awaited trade deal—the first part of their 21st Century Trade Initiative. As Taiwan’s presidential and legislative election campaigns enter the home stretch, the DPP’s Lai continues to lead the race. How will Beijing respond? Will Taiwan voters choose caution and vote for the KMT, or will they again interpret Chinese intimidation as one more reason to give four more years to the DPP with its insistence on de-facto independence?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
47. Sovereignty, Dignity, and Regionalism in the New International Order
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- This dossier analyses the growing fragility of the US-led ‘rules-based international order’ and examines the possibilities of regionalism to advance the construction of a new global system.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Capitalism, Regionalism, International Order, and Dignity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
48. The Coup Against the Third World: Chile, 1973
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- Dossier no. 68 presents an analysis of the 1973 coup against Chile and its effects on the Third World and non-aligned countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sovereignty, Third World, Coup, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Chile
49. Amérique latine. L'année politique 2022
- Author:
- Olivier Dabène
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2022 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Environment, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Social Policy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
50. Centrafrique : la fabrique d’un autoritarisme
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- This text analyses the conditions in which the Central African Republic, a failed state emerging from an existential crisis, is able to play on its own weaknesses and a particular regional and international configuration to coerce the political arena, terrorizing its own population by creating an enemy that is inevitably foreign, and using Russia as an instrument to perpetuate itself. The means and techniques of coercion are extremely modern, even if they are based on a repertoire of coercive practices already well established in Central Africa. Such authoritarianism is based on the construction of a specific threat (transnational armed groups), a lacklustre international community that is exhausting itself in implementing outdated solutions, and a security offer that relegates UN peacekeeping or European training missions to the sidelines: Russian and Rwandan military involvement reflects a desire to substitute the regional and international management of the crisis, while at the same time maintaining a concessionary economy in the mining and agricultural sectors, the primary beneficiaries of which continue to be the rulers in Bangui.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Authoritarianism, Regional Integration, and Transnational Actors
- Political Geography:
- Central Africa