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1141. US Southeast Asia Policy: Towards A Balance of Commitment Approach

Author:
Prashanth Parameswaran
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran, a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a Senior Columnist at The Diplomat Magazine, explains that "A balance of commitment approach in U.S. Southeast Asia policy can help policymakers be attentive to both the interrelationships between power, threats and resources shaping decisions in the U.S. domestic political system and the careful calibration of components in commitment level and distribution in the Southeast Asia required to sustain an expanded, balanced approach that serves U.S. interests and meets regional needs."
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Domestic Politics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1142. US-Philippine Defense Cooperation for Maritime Security

Author:
Jennifer Oreta
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Jennifer Oreta, coordinator of Ateneo Initiative for Southeast Asian Studies, and Asst Prof of the Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University Philippines, explains that "[t]he chief maritime security concerns in contemporary Southeast Asia are piracy, terrorism at sea, and China’s seizure of contested islands in the South China Sea."
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

1143. No Time to Lose: Renew the Compacts of Free Association

Author:
Emil Friberg
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Emil Friberg, PhD., Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, former Assistant Director/Senior Economist at US GAO, explains that "[a]nnual US Compact assistance is a strategic bilateral connection at a time of mounting security concerns."
Topic:
Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Micronesia

1144. Proceed with Caution: Israeli Research Collaboration with China

Author:
Casey Babb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
For Israel, warming relations with China has, in large part, been driven by pragmatic and enticing economic prospects, with policies focused on seizing the economic opportunity. For Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, the rationale for strengthening relations with Israel has been equally pragmatic, if of a different nature. China has long sought access to Israel’s vaunted innovation and technology sector – one of the most advanced in the world. For these reasons, China-Israel relations have accelerated dramatically, in areas ranging from trade in goods, to investment deals, to diplomatic relations, and beyond. However, over the last few years, and partly in response to mounting US pressure on Israel to reconsider its relations with China, there has been a noticeable cooling of economic activity between the two countries. That being said, if Israel wants to solidify its relationship with the US while limiting the gateways China could conceivably use to access or acquire the country’s technology and innovation in certain dual-use domains, it must also ensure the country’s research, intellectual property, and expert knowledge in these areas is sufficiently protected.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

1145. Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel

Author:
Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the crisis and achievement of an agreement; continued stagnation, i.e., lowintensity talks; or the collapse of the negotiations. The worst scenario for Israel is a continuation of the current situation, in which Iran could in a short time accumulate enough fissile material for weapons-grade enrichment for several nuclear facilities, while the temptation of a nuclear breakout increases. Thus, Israel should immediately formulate a new strategy regarding Iran. The government should conduct a discreet dialogue with the US administration and focus on proposals that seek to advance Israel’s military and strategic needs, including consolidating covert and effective cooperation with the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1146. The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, One Year Later

Author:
Yoram Schweitzer and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed UAV of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was hiding in Kabul, has also contributed to the organization's weakness and put it on the defensive. For the US administration and from a long-term perspective, the withdrawal was the right step, which did not harm the United States' superpower standing and even enabled greater attention and resources for coping with the main challenges currently posed by China and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1147. To What Extent is Israel Prepared for the Growing Threat of UAVs?

Author:
Eden Kaduri, Liran Antebi, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking about the ways of dealing with the threat in the spheres of doctrine, development, and operations is needed. Technological and operational solutions for both the more conventional threat and a scenario of massive UAV attacks in combination with high-trajectory barrages are required. Inter alia, there should be greater reliance on lasers as a cheap solution with much higher output than the current solutions. In addition, preparations should be made for handling extreme scenarios, however unlikely.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

1148. The Rift in Fatah, which Threatens Security Stability, is a Challenge – and Not Only for Israel

Author:
Ali Al-Awar and Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Charges of corruption, inadequate public support, and the lack of central control – the Fatah organization, led by Abu Mazen, suffers from difficult and unprecedented problems that threaten security stability in the West Bank and might lead to a scenario in which Hamas takes control of the Palestinian Authority. Israel should act to balance the precarious situation in the territories and strengthen the status of the Chairman of the PA
Topic:
Security, Leadership, Strategic Stability, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1149. Operation Breaking Dawn: Following the Successful Entry, an Exit Strategy is Required

Author:
Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
After two days of successful fighting by Israel against Islamic Jihad, with a string of impressive achievements, the principal risk now is that Hamas will decide to emerge from the sidelines and join the campaign. This turn of events would necessarily lengthen the campaign and widen its scope. Therefore, Israel should try to end the operation, while it retains the upper hand
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1150. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Author:
Shimon Stein and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Global Focus