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101. Techno-Realism: Navigating New Challenges in the Contemporary Role of Technology in Politics

Author:
Isti Marta Sukma
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to introduce a new theory, techno-realism, which is derived from political realism, to help comprehend the complex connections between technology and politics. According to techno-realism, technology serves as a means of power, with the innate drive for survival in human nature shaping the formation of identity. The research question at the core of this study revolves around the extent to which technology influences contemporary political science and whether it truly serves as a means of power. Three concepts are introduced: identity establishment, technology as the central source of power, and non-state actors in politics. The primary case study focuses on the complexity of the issue in Xinjiang, examining the application of cyberpolitics in the region. The second case study explores technology’s role in Indonesia’s political power struggle, as evidenced by its 2024 elections and the abuse of information and electronic transaction law effectiveness to control freedom of speech. Additionally, this paper introduces a case study on the Indo-Pacific regional power dynamics in confronting “digital authoritarianism”. This paper underscores the imperative for a new theoretical framework, adapted from political realism, which despite being subject to considerable criticism, has the potential for further development, placing technology at the core of analysis. Recognising the central roles of technology, identity formation, and non-state actors, techno-realism offers valuable insights for navigating complex political landscapes and informing strategic responses to emerging challenges. However, further research is needed to understand completely its applicability and limitations across different contexts, as demonstrated by the case studies presented in this paper.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Elections, Realism, and Techno-realism
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Asia, Global Focus, and Xinjiang

102. The Copenhagen School’s widening security theory in relation to cybersecurity. Applicability and Implications

Author:
Mihai Olteanu
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper critically examines the relationship between cybersecurity and Copenhagen School’s widening security theory, with the aim of assessing the possibility of applying this theoretical framework to the cyber realm. As cybersecurity is a relatively recent addition to the security discourse, this research explores whether the Copenhagen School’s traditional framework, which was primarily focused on securitisation processes in the five main sectors (military, political, economic, environmental, and societal), adequately encompasses the unique aspects and dynamics of cyber domain. The research question is: Why the cybersecurity field can’t become a separate constructivist sector? The study begins with a detailed overview of both cybersecurity landscape and Copenhagen School’s fundamental principles to provide the context for a comparative analysis of the Copenhagen theory and contemporary cybersecurity literature. In doing so, the research delves into the features of cybersecurity, with a focus on the evolving nature of cyber threats and vulnerabilities. By performing a qualitative analysis of the existing literature, the paper assesses the limitations of integrating these two concepts, ultimately concluding that cybersecurity lacks the distinct characteristics required to be considered a separate sector under the Copenhagen School’s framework. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussions regarding the adaptation of traditional security theories to address contemporary security challenges in the digital age.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Copenhagen School
Political Geography:
Global Focus

103. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate

Author:
Masao Dahlgren
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Refocusing U.S. Public Diplomacy for a Multipolar World

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Philip Arceneaux
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
China and Russia leverage technology, social media, and big data as tools to deceptively present information for hostile purposes. The United States must embrace a bold approach to public diplomacy to protect the ideas, values, electoral processes, and all the elements that make a free and open society possible and prevent it from becoming a casualty in the information war.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Data, Multipolarity, Public Diplomacy, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

105. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

106. China's Outbound Investment Policy in Recent Years

Author:
Jiyoung Moon, Munsu Kang, Minsuk Park, and Yongsun Kim
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
China's Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) strategy has been changing along with its national development strategy. In the early 2000s, China launched “Going Out (走出去)” strategy to encourage domestic companies’ overseas expansion, which laid the foundation for Chinese companies to venture abroad. Since then, the Chinese government has actively simplified administrative procedures to encourage ODI on the part of Chinese companies. Under the Xi Jinping administration, China's ODI has been functioning as a significant tool for the national development strategy. China’s ODI has increased particularly in strategic industries, such as high-tech industries, critical raw materials, and emerging industries. However, the explosive expansion of Chinese ODI in high-tech industries has led to the increased screening of Chinese ODI especially in developed countries. Through a series of events, the strategy of China's ODI has undergone various changes, with Chinese government strengthening its ODI management. Nevertheless, China’s strategy of aligning ODI with its national strategies continues, and its influence has recently expanded to Global South countries.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

107. Investigating the Effect of the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China

Author:
Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Oh, and Hyuk Hu Kwon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
his report examines the significant impact of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed under the Biden administration in October 2022. These controls, which target a broad range of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips, are part of a strategy aimed at curbing China’s advancement in critical technologies. A notable 32.5% decline in China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been observed, particularly in regions with advanced production capabilities and foreign company operations, such as those involving Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. While Korea experienced substantial drops in exports to China, the Netherlands saw an increase, reflecting its dominance in specific technologies like lithography. The AI chip sector has also been affected, with China turning to downgraded chips due to restricted access to high-performance models from companies like Nvidia. South Korea must adapt by strengthening its upstream semiconductor industry, considering reshoring production, and collaborating with international partners to mitigate risks. As U.S. export controls continue to evolve, the global semiconductor industry may face increased fragmentation, making strategic responses from affected nations essential to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, ongoing monitoring and adaptation to the dynamic regulatory environment shaped by these export controls are crucial.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Exports, Artificial Intelligence, Imports, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

108. Supporting Safer Digital Spaces: MENA Region Highlights

Author:
Nadia Al-Sakkaf and Natasha Chhabra
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Digital technologies are being used to inflict significant harm online, known as technology-facilitated violence. In particular, harm affects certain groups based on their gender, which is known as technology-facilitated gender-based violence. This modern form of violence perpetuates inequality and has significant impacts on its targets, including silencing the voices of women and other gender minorities online. Supporting a Safer Internet is a multi-year project led by the Centre for International Governance Innovation, with support from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and Ipsos. As part of the project, an international survey collected data from 18,149 people of all genders in 18 countries. Participants in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were not asked to report their sexual orientation or gender identity due to safety and legal limitations in those countries. For this reason, this version of the Highlights report has been developed with a specific focus on the data gathered from participants in those countries. Qualitative and contextual data from the SecDev Foundation has been utilized in this report to complement and provide a deeper understanding of the statistical data derived from this project. Recommendations from the MENA region agree with the Ipsos global survey recommendations for governments, technology companies, civil society organizations and researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Inequality, Gender, Digital Platforms, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

109. Freedom of Thought: Reviving and Protecting a Forgotten Human Right

Author:
Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Freedom of thought is an essential plank of the international human rights framework and an inviolable freedom. It has been described by legal experts as not only the foundation of democratic society and the basis and origin of all other rights but also as a “forgotten right” that has languished unused in international human rights law for decades. However, the importance of this right and the need to protect it are becoming more urgent in the digital world. To illustrate the risks emerging technologies present to freedom of thought, Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull outline four contemporary use cases — ranging from the least invasive (data-driven persuasive technologies) to the most invasive (brain-computer interfaces) — that raise many questions: Where does the line fall between our inner thoughts and our expression of those thoughts? What does “consent” mean with respect to technologies that interface with the mind? How can inferences about our inner lives be used against us? And, critically, where is the boundary between lawful influence and unlawful manipulation of our thoughts? Over the past 10 years, recognition has been growing that the right to freedom of thought is key to our future relationship with technology. Alegre and Shull write that an authoritative statement made at the international level on the scope of the right to freedom of thought and its relationship to technology would assist domestic and regional courts, regulators and policy makers grappling with these deeply complex policy areas.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:
Global Focus

110. The Accountability Surface of Militaries Using Automated Technologies

Author:
Arthur Holland Michel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
There are many people, decisions and technologies involved in the process leading to the use of force in military operations. Each of these touch points is a locus for applying — or failing to apply — accountability when things go wrong. The “accountability surface” is a new term of art to characterize the degree to which humans involved in the use of force can be held accountable for undue harm in warfare. As a metaphor, the accountability surface insists upon a crucial question regarding the use of military autonomous and automating technologies: Will the use of this technology expand or contract the degree to which anyone in the organization will be held accountable for any harms resulting from any process in which it plays a role? Automating technologies have the potential to significantly diminish the accountability surface of militaries that use them.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus