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101. Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: The Case of Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Exports have been a critical source for the resilience of the Malaysian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Long-term structural change in intersectoral production networks could have reduced this resilience. Stronger domestic intersectoral linkages and declining participation in backward global value chain participation are likely to reduce the impact of positive export shocks on the country’s economy. The services sector has become increasing important over time. Consumption in the services sector is clearly an important driver of growth. A positive export shock is enhanced by higher domestic intersectoral linkages in the services sector but not in manufacturing.
Topic:
Economy, Exports, Macroeconomics, Services, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

102. The Impact of Ukraine’s Accession on the EU’s Economy

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The groundwork for Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s single market was laid by the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (AA). A key component of the AA, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), paved the way for Ukraine’s gradual integration into the EU’s single market. Building on the DCFTA, Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s economy has significantly advanced since February 2022. In response to the invasion, the EU swiftly and temporarily but completely liberalised its market for Ukrainian goods through Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) and triggered the Temporary Protection Directive that has enabled over 4 million Ukrainian refugees to reside and work in the EU. With a continued swift trajectory, Ukraine’s integration is set to be much more comprehensive by the (yet unknown) time of accession. As this study outlines, the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EU brings some challenges but holds immense potential for mutual economic benefit. Free movement of goods. Full access under the ATM has not caused drastic changes in the EU’s imports or in the functioning of the single market in general. Yet, to avoid disruptions in the future, the accession treaty could include transition periods for full market access for Ukrainian goods in those EU Member States that may be vulnerable to a sharp increase in imports. Full trade liberalisation in services is expected to have more trade-easing effects, particularly for the EU, as it holds most of the reservations. Ukraine’s main EU partners in services trade are Germany and Poland, but services trade with Ukraine’s other major partners, including Estonia, has been steadily increasing since the implementation of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. Thus, trade absorption capacity should be sustainable. Free movement of capital. Given the underdevelopment of Ukraine’s financial sector and capital markets, legislative and policy alignment should serve as a solid foundation for financial deepening in the country. Eased movement of capital will make it significantly easier to conduct business and trade and commercial and non-commercial payments between Ukraine and the EU. Free movement of workers. As long as Ukrainian workers fit the labour demands of the receiving EU countries, they could fill the gap in the labour supply and complement rather than replace local workers. An enlarged EU as a global supplier. Ukraine could strengthen the EU’s position in critical materials and key agricultural products, as well as contribute to the EU technologically with its emerging ICT sector and increasing skills and know-how in IT and computer services. Ukraine’s reconstruction and sustainable recovery is a significant challenge that requires substantial financial support. Yet, by addressing these considerations with foresight and diligence, Ukraine’s accession to the EU could not only elevate Ukraine’s standing but could also strengthen the EU’s position on the global stage.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, Trade, Recovery, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

103. Climate and Development KPIs

Author:
Ian Mitchell and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
How committed are countries to tackling climate change at home and in developing countries? These tables provides nine key indicators on the world’s major economies spanning their climate contributions in three areas: emissions, policy, and international finance. Indicators are calculated to be comparable between countries with several expressed relative to population or economy size. Countries are ordered by the number of indicators on which they score in the best quartile, with indicators shaded for top quartile performance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Childcare and Early Childhood Development Expenditures in Africa: Comparative Policy Insights for Advancing Women’s Economic Empowerment

Author:
Kelsey Harris, Kehinde Ajayi, and Astha Mainali
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper examines public expenditures on childcare and early childhood development in four African countries, providing comparative policy insights to advance gender equality and women's economic empowerment. It begins by addressing the methodological and data challenges involved in obtaining and analyzing public expenditure data in these critical areas. The analysis then focuses on Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Rwanda, and Senegal, examining government spending and national policies aimed at promoting accessible, affordable, and quality childcare. Findings indicate that these countries typically invest less than 0.2 percent of GDP and around 2 percent or less of their education budgets on pre-primary education, with less than 2 percent of foreign aid to education directed to early childhood education (with the recent exception of Côte d'Ivoire). These investment levels fall significantly short of international recommendations, though the precision of these figures is hindered by significant gaps and complexities in accessing and analyzing comprehensive expenditure data. The paper identifies key policies shaping public expenditures and explores the potential economic and social benefits of increasing childcare investments in these countries over time. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to enhance the transparency and accessibility of expenditure data, prioritize early childhood in public funding, and leverage international aid and policy frameworks to optimize childcare services in Africa. By doing so, these efforts can better facilitate gender equality, women’s economic empowerment, and economic development.
Topic:
Education, Economy, Childcare, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Africa

105. VI Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España: Los efectos de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital en la desigualdad

Author:
Juan Francisco Albert, Luis Ayala Cañón, Jordi Bosch Meda, Jesús Cruces, and Antonio Ferrer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El sexto Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España (2024) de la Fundación Alternativas centra su atención sobre el análisis de los efectos sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital, con un énfasis en su dimensión territorial. La valoración más compartida es que los cambios producidos por estos tres movimientos simultáneos, envejecimiento de la población, transición climática y transformación digital, van a afectar de manera notable a las desigualdades interterritoriales e interpersonales de nuestro país. En consecuencia, se propone una reflexión que aborde un análisis conjunto y desde la perspectiva de las políticas públicas de estos retos que permita avanzar en el conocimiento de los efectos de las transformaciones en marcha y de las que habrán de producirse en el futuro, ofreciendo adicionalmente una serie de recomendaciones de políticas. Estas recomen- daciones incluyen algunas medidas para abordar la transición demográfica y reducir sus efectos sobre la desigualdad territorial, las necesarias propuestas de reforma fiscal, las políticas de cuidados, la distribución territorial de los fon- dos para la digitalización y la prevención de riesgos climáticos por territorios, entre otras cuestiones de creciente importancia en el ámbito público. En la elaboración y producción del documento y sus recomendaciones han colaborado, además, la Fundación 1º de Mayo (CC OO) y Oxfam Intermón.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Inequality, Economy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

106. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China

Author:
Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

107. Informe sobre Sostenibilidad en España 2024: Construyendo ciudades sostenibles

Author:
José Luis de la Cruz Leiva and Elena Meyer zu Riemsloh de Usera
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Las ciudades son el epicentro de un desafío global: combinar desarrollo urbano con sostenibilidad ambiental y bienestar social. Con más del 55% de la población mundial viviendo en entornos urbanos, una cifra que podría llegar al 68% en 2050, este crecimiento intensifica la presión sobre recursos esenciales como el agua y la energía, mientras agrava problemas como la contaminación y la fragmentación de ecosistemas. Responsables del 70% de las emisiones globales de CO₂, las ciudades tienen un papel clave en la lucha contra el cambio climático. Su transformación hacia modelos de movilidad sostenible, eficiencia energética y uso de energías renovables, junto con una gestión hídrica y ecológica más sostenible, resulta imprescindible para reducir su impacto ambiental y mejorar la calidad de vida de sus habitantes. El Informe de Sostenibilidad en España subraya la necesidad de convertir las ciudades en referentes de transición ecológica, sostenibilidad y equidad, ofreciendo estrategias basadas en datos, buenas prácticas y propuestas concretas. Este enfoque incluye la renaturalización de espacios urbanos, la promoción de soluciones basadas en la naturaleza y la participación activa de la ciudadanía, elementos que fomentan resiliencia y cohesión social frente a los desafíos del cambio climático. Así, el informe plantea una hoja de ruta para construir ciudades más habitables, saludables y sostenibles, adaptadas a los grandes retos ambientales del siglo XXI.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Sustainability, and Depopulation
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

108. Towards the end of AKP’s Hegemony in Turkey?

Author:
Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Turkish opposition’s landslide victory in recent municipal elections indicate that with continued tacit Kurdish collaboration with the opposition and given the deteriorating economy and growing desire for change, the next general snap-elections may be far more challenging for President Erdoğan.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

109. Addressing Zambia’s Water Security Challenges

Author:
Leleti Maluleke
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This policy briefing outlines the scale of Zambia’s current water crisis and examines its impact on agriculture, the environment, and the economy. Based on this analysis, it recommends a multifaceted approach to improve water management and distribution. Key recommendations include enhancing governance frameworks, investing in infrastructure, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and addressing gender inequalities in water access.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Environment, Water, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

110. Implicit Coordination in Sellers’ Inflation: How Cost Shocks Facilitate Price Hikes

Author:
Isabella Weber, Evan Wasner, Markus Lang, Benjamin Braun, and Jens van't Klooster
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Supply shocks are now widely recognized as a driver of the recent inflation bout, but the role of firms’ pricing strategies in propagating input cost shocks remains contested. In this paper, we review the state of the academic debate over sellers’ inflation and assess whether, in line with this theory, economy-wide cost shocks have functioned as an implicit coordination mechanism for firms to hike prices. We use a dataset containing 138,962 corporate earnings call transcripts of 4,823 stock-market listed U.S. corporations from the period 2007-Q1 to 2022-Q2 to conduct sentiment analysis via both dictionary-based natural language processing and a large language model approach. We find that large input price shocks (as well as their co-occurrence with supply constraints) correlate with positive sentiments expressed in executives’ statements about cost increases. Qualitative analysis provides further insights into the reasoning behind executives’ optimism regarding their ability to turn an economy-wide cost shock into an opportunity to raise prices and protect or even increase profits.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Profit, and Corporations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America