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31. Russia’s War on Ukraine: Iran’s Growing Role and the Nuclear Threat

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Philip Breedlove, and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In today's episode, Alistair Taylor sits down with experts from MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative to assess the trajectory of Russia's war on Ukraine. They discuss Russia’s growing attacks on critical infrastructure, its recent deployment of Iranian drones and their impact on the battlefield, the potential nuclear threat, and where things might be headed from here. Today's guests are General Philip Breedlove and Iulia-Sabina Joja. General Breedlove is a retired United States Air Force General who served as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Commander of U.S. European Command. He’s the Distinguished Chair of MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative and a Distinguished Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. Iulia is a Senior Fellow and Director of MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative and Director of its "Afghanistan Watch" project. She teaches courses on European security at Georgetown and George Washington universities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

32. The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On today’s episode, host Alistair Taylor explores the ramifications of the CIA drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31. Joining the program are three MEI experts - Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London - who bring with them a variety of perspectives, from intelligence to diplomacy.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Drones, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

33. Proposed method for building an anti-drone system for the protection of facilities important for state security

Author:
Jędrzej Łukasiewicz
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) pose a threat to buildings and facilities important to the security of the state. As they are able to operate like individual aircraft, the number of ways they can be used for terrorist activity is practically unlimited. Anyone in charge of a facility that is crucial for the reliable functioning of a state is obliged to ensure an acceptable level of security. Since drones can be used to attack protected structures, they need to be protected by an anti-drone system. The paper proposes a method for assessing the effectiveness of systems for detecting and neutralising unmanned aerial vehicles. In order to suggest a new method for assessing the effectiveness of anti-drone systems, an analysis of the scientific literature and other documents describing existing anti-drone systems has been carried out. Attacks involving the use of drones, both in wartime and in incidents of terrorism, are also analysed and existing anti-drone solutions assessed. Because there are a variety of technical solutions for the detection and neutralisation of drones, and different location and weather conditions, a universal method is proposed based on probability calculations and neutralisation of drones, using mathematical formulas. This method allows for the effectiveness of the entire anti-drone system to be assessed on the basis of measuring the probability of detection and neutralisation of drones in real conditions. The proposed method allows the effectiveness of the currently existing anti-drone systems to be evaluated and for new methods for detecting and neutralising drones to be proposed. This method, based on mathematical calculations, enables software to be written for simulating anti-drone systems on computers and for the effectiveness of these systems to be confirmed before their construction in a protected facility.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. To What Extent is Israel Prepared for the Growing Threat of UAVs?

Author:
Eden Kaduri, Liran Antebi, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking about the ways of dealing with the threat in the spheres of doctrine, development, and operations is needed. Technological and operational solutions for both the more conventional threat and a scenario of massive UAV attacks in combination with high-trajectory barrages are required. Inter alia, there should be greater reliance on lasers as a cheap solution with much higher output than the current solutions. In addition, preparations should be made for handling extreme scenarios, however unlikely.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

35. Houthis Target Southern Ports – The Yemen Review, October 2022

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The UN-backed truce between the Houthi movement and the internationally recognized government was allowed to expire on October 2. Efforts to secure its further extension failed following a last-minute demand by Houthi negotiators to add military and security personnel to a payroll of public sector employees. The breakdown of the talks was followed by mutual recriminations, even as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged delegations on October 14, ostensibly to visit prisoners of war and discuss an exchange. Later in the month, the Houthis targeted two oil ports on Yemen’s southern coast with drones, striking the port of Nushayma in Shabwa on October 18-19 and the port of Al-Dabba in Hadramawt on October 21. The drone attacks followed warnings by senior Houthi official Mahdi al-Mashat that foreign energy companies were “looting Yemen’s sovereign wealth” and should cease operations. Though the facilities were undamaged, the attacks have disrupted exports as foreign ships stay away from Yemen’s coast. On October 31, Canadian oil producer Calvalley Petroleum Ltd. announced a suspension of oil production at Block 9 in Hadramawt due to the “current extremely challenging situation” and a lack of oil storage capacity. In response to the Houthi drone attacks, the government’s National Defense Council officially designated the Houthi movement a terrorist organization on October 23. It is unclear what ramifications the designation will have, as the government currently lacks a mechanism with which to enforce compliance. Saudi Arabia has privately urged caution to prevent derailing ongoing peace talks.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Drones, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Port
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

36. Drone warfare: an evolution in military affairs

Author:
Andrea Gilli
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) – also known as drones – have acquired increasing importance in modern warfare. Originally designed to perform surveillance missions during the Cold War, drones gained prominence during the post-Cold War era through their ability to gather real-time intelligence over conflict-prone areas, particularly in support of humanitarian interventions. Following the onset of the global war on terror, drones acquired a further, arguably more significant function: armed with precision-guided munitions, they enabled Western armed forces to identify, track, and accurately strike targets from afar, reducing the need for troops on the ground.1 Simultaneously, drones’ allegedly low costs, limited technological sophistication, and ease of employment also enabled their rapid proliferation to dozens of countries around the world.2 According to some, the major implications are yet to come: drones’ unique capabilities promise in fact to revolutionize warfare. Consequently, militaries could eschew complex and expensive force structures to wage war: they would just need drones. As countries face stronger incentives and fewer constraints for using force, the growing availability of drones coupled with their capabilities deserve attention because this trend risks ushering in a new era of global instability and conflict.3
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus