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34531. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2002

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.6 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in January. The leading index posted a robust 2.2 percent increase from July 2001 to January 2002. This is the fourth consecutive month that the six-month growth rate of the leading index has improved. Meanwhile, the six-month diffusion index, which measures the number of components that are rising, has increased above 50 percent for the first time in 21 months. With a robust leading index, the coincident index appears to be bottoming out in the past two months. The rate of decline of nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production has slowed in the last three and four months respectively while personal income and manufacturing sales have essentially held their ground throughout the recession. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fourth consecutive month in January. This underscores the strength of the leading index and indicates a likely economic recovery, barring any unexpected negative events.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

34532. Shining a Light on Small Arms Exports: The Record of State Transparency

Author:
Maria Haug, Martin Langvandslien, Lora Lumpe, and Nic Marsh
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons directly enables a horrifying number of deaths and injuries around the world each year, and it poses a grave threat to the stability and development of many countries, as well as to the success of UN-mandated peace operations. One of the most meaningful and straightforward initiatives concerned governments could undertake is to provide full unilateral transparency around the small arms shipments they are authorizing for import or export.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
United Nations

34533. Making Global Public Policy: The Case of Small Arms and Light Weapons

Author:
Rachel Stohl and Edward Laurence
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In the Programme of Action, agreed at the July 2001 UN Small Arms Conference, national governments adopted a wide-ranging set of commitments which, if implemented, would aid greatly in preventing and reducing the negative impacts of these weapons. In an extensive review, this paper reveals that states, intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have taken up this challenge in a broad series of meetings, programmes, and policies. Individual states are enacting new laws, building needed capacity, and funding projects in affected states. UN agencies are engaged in various activities in support of the Programme, while the UN Secretariat is carrying out the tasks assigned to it in this document. At the same time, regional IGOs are taking action loosely based on the Programme. And NGOs, both global and local, have embarked on specific programmes and awareness-raising initiatives, empowered by the mandate contained in the Programme.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
United Nations

34534. Politics from the Barrel of a Gun: Small Arms Proliferation and Conflict in the Republic of Georgia

Author:
Spyros Demetriou
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Over ten years have elapsed since the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991. Radical transitions from one political system to another are by definition conflict-prone, involving fierce competition between differing visions, fluid political affiliations, social activism, power vacuums, and severe economic crises—if not collapse. In such contexts of instability and uncertainty, the recourse to armed violence—as a form of expression and an instrument of power—is an attractive option. The collapse of the USSR engendered a radical transition culminating in the creation of 15 internationally recognized states. Although for the most part surprisingly peaceful, the transition to independence in four states—Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Georgia—was marked by widespread violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Moldova, Soviet Union, and Georgia

34535. Stray Bullets: The Impact of Small Arms Misuse in Central America

Author:
Camilla Waszink, Robert Muggah, and William Godnick
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper provides a review of the impact of small arms and light weapons in Central America in the years following the end of the armed hostilities of the 1980s and early 1990s. In this instance, 'Central America' refers to the Spanish-speaking countries of the isthmus—Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Panama.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Central America

34536. Multinational Solutions versus Intra-Alliance Specialization

Author:
Rachel Lutz Ellehuus
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This analysis focuses on possible multinational solutions aimed at enhancing the effectiveness and cost efficiency of multinational operations.All things being equal, multinational forces are less effective than purely national forces of a similar size. However, multinational operations have the advantage of potential greater strength in numbers and additional capabilities when several states cooperate.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Human Rights, and International Organization

34537. Russian Border Policies and Border Regions

Author:
Vasiliy N. Valuev
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper is about a partnership, the aim of which is to create a Europe without divides. A partnership where the vision is to transcend the divide between membership and non-membership and to create co-operation in trade, in stability and security, and in democracy on all levels. The paper examines the implementation of the EU-Russia partnership and its strategy not only on the rhetorical level but also in a micro-perspective seen from a border region (mostly from the EU-side), from a space where the divides whether economic, social or of any other kind are most clearly manifested. As borders manifest social conflict a study of the implementation of the partnership agreement on this micro-level will make visible not only the taken-for-granted assumptions and practices but also new and emerging divides. As a concrete case the creation of a European information society is studied. Will the partners be united in virtual space without divides? Conclusions are drawn on the nature of the partnership, the relationship between the partners and the perspective of a Europe without divides.
Topic:
Security and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and France

34538. The Implication of the Concept of the French State-Nation and 'Patrie' for French Discourses on (Algerian) Immigration

Author:
Ulla Holm
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The purpose of the article is to explore how the 'exceptionality' of the concept of the French political state-nation together with the concept of 'patrie' (country) frames what can be said and not said in the discourses on (Maghrebi) immigration. The question is therefore how the building blocks of the definition of the French state-nation and 'patrie' frame the discursive struggle between the dominant and marginalized discourses. Furthermore I will investigate to which extend the discourses on immigration succeed in 'securitizing' the immigrant.
Topic:
Security and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and France

34539. Wars and the Un-making of States: Taking Tilly Seriously in the Contemporary World

Author:
Anna Leander
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
That war makes states has become part of international relations (and political science) folklore. There are good reasons for this. The idea can be evoked with reference to venerable classical masters of our trade, including Weber, Hintze and Elias, or more recent ones such as Finer or Tilly. Moreover, the argument dovetails beautifully with the anti-liberalism underlying much realist thinking in international relations. It stresses the violent foundations of power and states as opposed to liberal stress on the role of power growing out of legitimacy and common action. And finally, the argument is useful from two perspectives. Analytically, it enables observers to make positive sense of the messy reality of war in large parts of the world: it is just an inevitable step on the way to state formation (Cohen, Brown et al. 1981). And politically it provides a welcome excuse for not getting too closely involved with that messy reality. If wars make states, well then the best thing is to allow them to be fought out (Herbst 1996-7).
Topic:
Government, Sovereignty, and War

34540. Good Fences Make Good Neighbours?: A Comparison of Consociational and Integrative Conflict Regulation Strategies in Post-Dayton Bosnia

Author:
Nina Fallentin Caspersen
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Based on conflict regulation in post-Dayton Bosnia, it will in this paper be analysed whether an integrative or a consociational approach is more effective in fostering stability following an ethnic war. I will compare the effectiveness of the approaches in fostering stability in post-Dayton Bosnia, and from this analysis seek to identify the empirical conditions that affect the effectiveness of the approaches and hence the conditions under which they should be prescribed. Whereas the ethnic groups in Lijphart's consociational approach constitute the basic units on which the political structure is built, Horowitz contends in his integrative approach that political structures must transcend the ethnic divisions, they must obliterate the divide. The Dayton Agreement that ended the war in Bosnia contains elements of both approaches and the balance between them has been changing in the course of its implementation. The case, therefore, constitutes a very suitable case for an empirical test. I will argue that due to the depth of divisions, the numerical balance between the groups, and the maximalist objectives of the parties, the consociational model has been more effective in fostering stability in Bosnia. Presently, a change to an integrative structure seems premature, but a mix of the approaches has been demonstrated to be able to foster moderation and the way forward could be a continued incremental change of the balance of this mix.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia