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18192. The Middle East: The Persian Illusion
- Author:
- Shashank Joshi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- A spectre is haunting the Persian Gulf - the spectre of Persia. The era of the Gulf's most iconic bête noire, Saudi born and raised Osama bin Laden, has drawn to a close. But outsiders persistently underestimate the degree to which it is a state - the Islamic republic of Iran - rather than a non-state group, al Qaeda, which today captures the strategic attention of those in the corridors of power in Riyadh, Manama, and Amman.
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Persia
18193. Serbo-Croat Relations: Addressing Injustice
- Author:
- Jelena Obradovic-Wochnik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- On August 4, 1995, Croatian troops launched Operation Storm, a military action to gain control of the land occupied by Serb forces. The operation displaced some 200,000 Serbs from Croatia's Krajina region, but concluded the Croatian war, which started in 1991. Serbian public opinion has long maintained that this event constitutes genocide, and Storm became symbolic in Serbian politics, being held up as an emblem of perceived injustices against Serbs.
- Political Geography:
- Serbia
18194. Bosnia: Crisis Averted?
- Author:
- Kenneth Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- While the ghosts of the 1992-95 Bosnian war have been invoked by political elites in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries as a justification for the need to provide humanitarian intervention in Libya, the political situation in Bosnia barely merited mention. Indeed, while the focus has been fixed on the events in the Middle East and North Africa, Bosnia's problems have incrementally but steadily worsened.
- Political Geography:
- North Atlantic, Bosnia, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
18195. The Middle East is in Transition—to What?
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Arab world has been changed irreversibly by the popular uprisings that started in early 2011. The long period of dormancy that enveloped the Arab world has come to an end. The uprisings have been triggered in all countries by similar mixes of economic hardship and lack of civil and political rights. But we should not expect the uprisings to lead to similar changes in all countries. Already, three different patterns are emerging. In Tunisia and Egypt, the presidents have been overthrown by members of their own regime, including the military; they are now trying to limit the extent of change and to transform a potentially revolutionary process into one of reform from the top. In Yemen and Libya, the challenge to the leaders has turned into a challenge to the survival of the state itself: the two countries have no institutions that can persist if the presidents are ousted. In other countries affected by protest, the regimes have been trying to subdue the protest through a mixture of populist concessions, cautious reforms introduced from the top, and the occasional use of force.
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Yemen, Arabia, and Egypt
18196. Arab Revolts: Islamists aren't Coming!
- Author:
- Asef Bayat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- There has been strong concern about the direction of the current revolts in the Middle East. The fear has been that the revolts may result in the Iranian-style Islamic revolutions in the Arab countries. This commentary questions the empirical validity of such claims, showing that the Arab revolts differ considerably from the Islamic revolution in ideology and trajectory. It suggests that we are witnessing the coming of a post-Islamist Middle East, in which the prevailing popular movements assume a postnational, post-ideological, civil, and democratic character. It is, therefore, argued that we are entering a new era in the region where Islamism—undermined by a crisis of legitimacy for ignoring and violating people's democratic rights—is giving way to a different kind of religious polity, which takes democracy seriously while wishing to promote pious sensibilities in society.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
18197. The Arab Revolution of 2011: Reflections on Religion and Politics
- Author:
- Nader Hashemi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The democratic uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East have been widely celebrated but in the West they have generated concern and apprehension. Most of this concern involves the future role of religion in the politics of the Arab world. In this essay, I make two broad observations. First, concern in the West about the rise of mainstream Islamist parties is partly based not on the illiberal orientation of these groups but the fact that they are politically independent actors who challenge Western geo-strategic interests in the region. Second, the role of religion in government has never been democratically negotiated en masse in the Arab world. To assume that this issue has been resolved and a broad consensus exists is to project a Western understanding of religion-state relations on the Arab-Islamic world. Doing so is both erroneous and analytically distorted. The battles over the role of religion in politics have yet to begin in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
18198. The Arab Uprisings: Debating the "Turkish Model"
- Author:
- Alper Y. Dede
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Mass uprisings on the Arab streets have become the vehicle for reform as the availability of modern means of communication has enabled the Arab opposition to express their frustration caused by the stagnancy and inefficiency of the status quo-oriented authoritarian-bureaucratic regimes of the region. There is currently an ongoing debate about whether Turkey could become a model for the region with its growing economy, strengthening democracy, and spreading soft power due to Turkey's increasing popularity in the region and its warm relations with the Arab world. Thus, it is not Turkey's authoritarian secularism or its debacles in the process of democratization that has brought forth Turkey's prominence as a model. This article discusses what the Turkish model is, whether it is applicable to the rest of the region, and the potential risks of proposing Turkey as a model country for the region.
- Topic:
- Communications
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
18199. Turkey's "Demonstrative Effect" and the Transformation of the Middle East
- Author:
- Kemal Kirisci
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- A string of uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt followed by those in other countries have rekindled the issue of Turkey constituting a model for reform and democratization in the Arab world, a point raised by many Western and Arab commentators. Independent of this debate, what is lacking in the literature is an analysis of how come there is a “demand” for the Turkish model. This article develops the concept of a “demonstrative effect” and argues that it is this “effect” that makes the Turkish model of interest to the Middle East and that this “effect” is a function of three developments: the rise of the “trading state”, the diffusion of Turkey's democratization experience as a “work in progress”, and the positive image of Turkey's “new” foreign policy. The concluding part of the article discusses several challenges Turkey has to meet so that its “demonstrative effect” can have a positive impact.
- Topic:
- Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Hiroshima
18200. Beyond the Democratic Wave in the Arab World: The Middle East's Turko-Persian Future
- Author:
- Mohammed Ayoob
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- It is unlikely that the Egyptian revolution will have a major impact on the political and strategic landscape in the Middle East in the short and medium terms. Egypt, the Arab state with the greatest capacity to act regionally, will be tied down for a considerable period of time in getting its house in order and sorting out the relationship between the civilian and military components of the new political order. This means that the shift in the center of political gravity in the region from the Arab heartland comprising Egypt and the Fertile Crescent to what was once considered the non-Arab periphery – Turkey and Iran – which was becoming clearly discernible before the recent upheavals in the Arab world will continue. The shift in the strategic and political balance in the Middle East in favor of Turkey and Iran is the result of a combination of factors, some domestic, some regional and some global.
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt