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17992. The Impending Squeeze
- Author:
- Tim W. Ferguson, Charles B. Heck, and Mitchell W. Hedstrom
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- ESSAY American Profligacy and American Power Roger C. Altman and Richard N. Haass The U.S. government is incurring debt at an unprecedented rate. If U.S. leaders do not act to curb their debt addiction, then the global capital markets will do so for them, forcing a sharp and punitive adjustment in fiscal policy. The result will be an age of American austerity. Would you like to leave a comment? 1CommentsJoin To the Editor: Roger Altman and Richard Haass ("American Profligacy and American Power," November/December 2010) persuasively argue that continued American profligacy promises to undermine American power. But the situation is even more urgent than they suggest. Although Altman and Haass expect markets to remain calm "possibly for two or three years," the rising price of gold suggests otherwise. Gold has risen from $460 per ounce to $1,400 per ounce in the last five years -- representing a 67 percent devaluation of the U.S. dollar per unit of gold. As former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan has said, gold is "the ultimate means of payment." Moreover, on top of new government debt over the next several years, maturing existing debt will need to be refinanced. At 4.6 years, the average maturity of the U.S. federal debt held by the public (debt that now totals $9.1 trillion) is tight relative to, for instance, the average maturity of 13.5 years for British government debt. According to the International Monetary Fund, the maturing debt of the U.S. government will equal 18.1 percent of U.S. GDP during 2011 alone. Altman and Haass rightly note that the U.S. government's annual interest expense will rise dramatically as its stock of debt increases and interest rates inevitably rise. Further debt increases would substantially darken the fiscal outlook for the federal government. And even a relatively small rise in interest rates would have a significant impact. TIM W. FERGUSON Editor, Forbes Asia CHARLES B. HECK Former North American Director, Trilateral Commission MITCHELL W. HEDSTROM Managing Director, TIAA-CREF
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Asia
17993. Turkey's Cyprus Problem
- Author:
- Andrew Jacovides
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- To the Editor: Hugh Pope ("Pax Ottomana?" November/December 2010) observes that Turkey succeeded in being elected to a rotating seat of the UN Security Council for 2009-10. It might then be assumed that Turkey's policies have been guided by the principles of the UN Charter. But Turkey continues its 40,000-strong troop occupation of a large part of the Republic of Cyprus -- an EU and UN member state -- despite numerous Security Council resolutions since its initial 1974 invasion calling for its immediate withdrawal. Turkey does not comply with its legal obligations to Cyprus or to the EU and forcibly interferes with Cyprus' rights in its exclusive economic zone of maritime jurisdiction. Pope writes that "in 2003, the [ruling party in Turkey] reversed traditional Turkish policy by agreeing to endorse a UN plan to reunify" Cyprus. What he does not say, however, is that the latest version of the plan wholly incorporated Ankara's demands. In addition, Pope makes an unfounded assertion in stating that "since joining the EU in 2004, Cyprus has pulled all available levers to block Turkey's own accession to the union." If this were the case, Turkey would not have been endorsed as a candidate for EU membership in 2005, since such a decision requires unanimity, and so Cyprus could have exercised its veto. Like Pope, many welcomed Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's declared goal of the "settlement of disputes" that "directly or indirectly concern Turkey" and Turkey's "zero problem" policy toward its neighbors. Other than paying lip service to supporting the UN-sponsored intercommunal talks on Cyprus, however, Turkey has not conceded an inch toward achieving a solution within the agreed framework. If the Cyprus problem were solved through a viable compromise settlement with Turkey's help, Turkey will have removed a major obstacle to its EU accession. Moreover, a reunited and peaceful Cyprus, free of foreign troops, would be transformed into a bridge of peace from a bone of contention and would cooperate with Turkey and Greece on an array of issues. This outcome can be achieved through good neighborly relations on the basis of the principles of the UN Charter, not through occupation, domination, and a Pax Ottomana. ANDREW JACOVIDES Former Ambassador of Cyprus to the United States
- Topic:
- Security and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Turkey
17994. Securitising Food Futures in the Asia-Pacific: Human Securitising Regional Frameworks
- Author:
- Lorraine Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
- Abstract:
- The global food crisis of 2007 to 2008 – which was characterised by both volatility in food prices and shortages of food – and the uneven but almost certainly largely negative impacts of climate change have drawn attention to the importance of food security as a regional challenge for the Asia-Pacific. Food insecurity in the region results from the convergence of uncertainties about inputs to food production and economic conditions that facilitate or restrict access to food. Regional strategies to achieve food security need to recognise the need to provide immediate remedial support to alleviate hunger and restore livelihoods, to enhance capacity to anticipate food uncertainties and to strengthen resilience to the impacts of future food disasters. A human security approach seeks to ensure that people are at the centre of regional food security frameworks – not just in terms of concerns over who the food insecure or food vulnerable are, but also in terms of ensuring that policies and programmes respond to local needs and community rights and that food security governance is participatory and transparent.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
17995. Presidential Power In An Age Of Terror
- Author:
- Abraham Wagner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- For most of the nation's history, questions about Presidential or executive power have not been constant, but they have certainly been recurring. At the outset of the republic, the nature of the chief executive was a matter of substantial concern to the founding fathers and a matter of considerable debate at the time of the Constitutional Convention. The early days under the Articles of Confederation had not gone all that well, and the hope of the Constitution's authors was to draft a more viable plan for a democratic government. Following 1789, the first years of the Republic were largely an experiment in democracy, characterized by a series of relatively weak presidents prior to Lincoln, presiding over a very small federal government that faced issues that were not as grave as that ones to follow in Lincoln's time and afterwards.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
17996. DoD Workforce Cost Realism Assessment
- Author:
- David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Joachim Hofbauer, Gregory Kiley, and Jesse Ellman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, federal spending on service contracts more than doubled in constant terms, from $164 billion in 2000 to $343 billion in 2010. Policymakers have recently attempted to reduce or even reverse this increase, emphasizing instead what is now called the “insourcing” of services contracts. Conversions from contractors to government civilians, as well as other actions to expand the federal workforce, are being undertaken for political and cost savings reasons. In this study, CSIS looks into recent developments of these insourcing efforts within one executive department: the Department of Defense (DoD). DoD is the largest government department in terms of demand for services. In 2010, it awarded $161 billion worth of service contracts, up from $67 billion in 2000. This report reviews the analytical validity of the current policy and practices and proposes an alternative methodology for conducting better sourcing decisions between private and public providers.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
17997. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran's Perceptions of its Internal Developments and their Implications for Strategic Competition with the U.S. in the Gulf, Sept. 2010 – March 2011 By
- Author:
- Alexander Wilner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- With the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University, the Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran‟s intentions concerning competition with the US.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
17998. Next Steps for Pakistan Strategy
- Author:
- Daniel Markey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Pakistani relations are in crisis. For Washington, Osam a bin Laden's safe haven in Abbottabad raises questions about Pakistan's complicity and/or incompetence. For Islamabad, bin Laden's killing shows its vulnerability to U.S. operations on its own soil .
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and Washington
17999. Food Production and Environmental Health in Southeast Asia: The Search for Complementary Strategies
- Author:
- J. Jackson Ewing
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
- Abstract:
- Populations are growing and becoming more urban throughout much of the developing world, with the Southeast Asian region proving no exception. One result of this seemingly inescapable trend is that more food will have to be produced by rural communities that continue to decline in size relative to their city-dwelling neighbours. This is true both in domestic contexts, where rural hinterlands will feed urban centres of business, technological advancement and trade, and in international food markets, where countries with high rural agricultural production capabilities will be sought after by countries that have significant food importing needs. While the processes by which these trends play out are complex, varying and at times unpredictable, it is clear that food production must increase.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Environment, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
18000. It's Not Only Rents: Explaining the Persistence and Change of Neopatrimonialism in Indonesia
- Author:
- Nina Korte
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Indonesia has long been associated with neopatrimonialism, corruption, collusion, and nepotism as the main modi operandi of politics, economics and public administration. Despite various measures and initiatives to fight these practises, little evidence for a significant decline can be found over the years. Rather, longitudinal analysis points to changes in the character of neopatrimonialism. Based on more than 60 in-depth interviews, focus-group discussions, and the analysis of both primary and secondary data, the aim of this article is, first, to describe the changes that have taken place, and, second, to investigate what accounts for these changes. Political economy concepts posit the amount and development of economic rents as the explanatory factor for the persistence and change of neopatrimonialism. This study's findings, however, indicate that rents alone cannot explain what has taken place in Indonesia. Democratisation and decentralisation exert a stronger impact.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Economics, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia